Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
328 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THEN LOOPING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, GENERALLY AROUND 30-40 KNOTS, BUT COULD STILL
BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW SUPERCELLS. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S THIS AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY
WILL BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT, AROUND 2000-3000J/KG, WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT GOLF BALL TO POSSIBLY TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. GIVEN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

THE AREA OF STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, WE
COULD SEE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY OUT
TOWARD THE COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD IN
NEGATIVE TILT FASHION SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES,
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY GIVEN
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND INCREASING
MID TO HIGH LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THE DETAILS OF WHAT HAPPENS SATURDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL IMPACT
WHETHER THE TRUE WARM SECTOR MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH. GIVEN THAT
VERY RICH MOISTURE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER TEXAS SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INCLUDING PRATT, ST JOHN AND MEDICINE
LODGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS AND HOW MUCH CLEARING
TAKES PLACE. AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE 70S OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOST LIKELY, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT,
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND 60S RESPECTIVELY. LOWS BY
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN FAR
WESTERN KANSAS. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS FARTHER EAST.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS.

A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE ROCKIES, ALONG WITH WEAK LEE
TROUGHING THAT WILL REPLACE THE COOL SURFACE HIGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL, SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR DODGE CITY TO GARDEN CITY AND
HAYS WITH VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY LATE.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AFTER 22-00Z.
SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  74  57  75 /  50  50  50  70
GCK  56  70  54  74 /  40  50  50  40
EHA  55  75  52  75 /  30  30  30  20
LBL  56  77  56  77 /  50  40  40  30
HYS  54  69  55  72 /  50  50  50  70
P28  61  77  60  76 /  60  50  60  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...KRUSE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
230 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

KSZ066-072015-
STAFFORD KS-
230 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STAFFORD COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM
CDT...

AT 230 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTH OF IUKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. JOHN...STAFFORD...HUDSON...SEWARD...ZENITH...DILLWYN AND NEOLA.

LAT...LON 3783 9851 3783 9896 3826 9880 3826 9847
      3787 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 216DEG 30KT 3782 9875

RUSSELL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

KSZ076-077-086-087-072130-
SEWARD KS-HASKELL KS-MEADE KS-GRAY KS-
344 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SEWARD...NORTHWESTERN
MEADE...SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL AND SOUTHERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
CDT...

AT 343 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
COPELAND TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF SATANTA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CIMARRON...SUBLETTE...MONTEZUMA...COPELAND...ENSIGN...THE HAGGARD
ELEV AND TICE.

LAT...LON 3789 10024 3737 10105 3711 10098 3751 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 184DEG 26KT 3748 10056 3730 10092

RUSSELL