Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Dodge City, KS

May 7, 2015Morton County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 7, 2015, 5:47 PM CDT for Morton County, Kansas. It was in force for 58 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 7, 2015, 5:47 PM CDT (22:47 UTC)
Expired: May 7, 2015, 6:45 PM CDT
In force: 58 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 2.5 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

County Morton County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 184 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 7, 6:03 PM CDT	HAIL 1	9 Nw Elkhart, KS
May 7, 6:10 PM CDT	TORNADO	9 Nw Elkhart, KS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 16 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 190 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 627 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -201 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1043 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 122 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

873 
WUUS53 KDDC 072247
SVRDDC
KSC129-072345-
/O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0059.150507T2247Z-150507T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
547 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN MORTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 546 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTH OF
  STONINGTON...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELKHART...MOVING EAST AT 20
  MPH.

  HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
           CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
           MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ELKHART AND WILBURTON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3719 10204 3725 10174 3707 10173 3700 10176
      3699 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 279DEG 18KT 3710 10214 

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

FINCH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 7, 3:47 PM CDT, 2 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 7, 3:47 PM CDT, 2 hours before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS RUNNING NEAR LARNED TO DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TONIGHT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. AS CONVECTION
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT, THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO DROP SOUTH TOWARDS MORNING INTO OKLAHOMA AND STALL OUT. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST INTO FRIDAY WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT, SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO
QUARTERS, POSSIBLY LARGER FAR WEST TOWARDS THE COLORADO BORDER. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK, HOWEVER THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. STORMS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA HAVE HELPED TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS SOMEWHAT, SO NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS. CAPES FORECAST FROM 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE THEN EASTERLY AROUND 10 MPH
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOME LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
KANSAS BY MORNING WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.

FOR FRIDAY, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FORMING. FORECAST CAPES ARE
AROUND 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. DECENT SHEAR PROFILE IS IN PLACE WITH
GOOD BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AND MID LEVELS AROUND 50KT. A BIG
NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR SEVERE, IS THE AREA COULD BE CAPPED WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS FORECAST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD IN
NEGATIVE TILT FASHION SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES,
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY GIVEN
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND INCREASING
MID TO HIGH LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THE DETAILS OF WHAT HAPPENS SATURDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL IMPACT
WHETHER THE TRUE WARM SECTOR MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH. GIVEN THAT
VERY RICH MOISTURE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER TEXAS SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INCLUDING PRATT, ST JOHN AND MEDICINE
LODGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS AND HOW MUCH CLEARING
TAKES PLACE. AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE 70S OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOST LIKELY, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT,
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND 60S RESPECTIVELY. LOWS BY
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN FAR
WESTERN KANSAS. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS FARTHER EAST.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS.

A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE ROCKIES, ALONG WITH WEAK LEE
TROUGHING THAT WILL REPLACE THE COOL SURFACE HIGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL, SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR DODGE CITY TO GARDEN CITY AND
HAYS WITH VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY LATE.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AFTER 22-00Z.
SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  74  57  75 /  50  50  50  70
GCK  56  70  54  74 /  40  50  50  40
EHA  55  75  52  75 /  30  30  30  20
LBL  56  77  56  77 /  50  40  40  30
HYS  54  69  55  72 /  50  50  50  70
P28  61  77  60  76 /  60  50  60  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...KRUSE

Hazardous weather outlook, May 7, 12:37 PM CDT, 5 hours 10 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1237 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-081745-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1237 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  MONDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  TUESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  WEDNESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

06

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 7, 4:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
440 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

KSZ064-077-078-072230-
HODGEMAN KS-FORD KS-GRAY KS-
440 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN...
NORTHWESTERN FORD...EASTERN FINNEY AND NORTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTIES
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 440 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF DODGE
CITY TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF CIMARRON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
HODGEMAN...NORTHWESTERN FORD...EASTERN FINNEY AND NORTHEASTERN GRAY
COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3800 10026 3800 10023 3802 10022 3804 9996
      3784 10003 3781 10031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 219DEG 12KT 3791 10004 3785 10030

RUSSELL

Local storm report, May 7, 4:54 PM CDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
454 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             9 N KINSLEY             38.05N 99.41W
05/07/2015  E1.00 INCH       EDWARDS            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NWS DODGE CITY KS
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, May 7, 5:04 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
504 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             LARNED                  38.18N 99.10W
05/07/2015  E0.75 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MJS

Local storm report, May 7, 5:15 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             12 SSW BAZINE           38.29N 99.79W
05/07/2015  E1.50 INCH       NESS               KS   PUBLIC

&&

NWS DODGE CITY KS
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, May 7, 5:29 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
529 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     HAIL             5 WSW KALVESTA          38.03N 100.37W
05/07/2015  M1.00 INCH       FINNEY             KS   PUBLIC

            HAIL WAS COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

NWS DODGE CITY KS
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, May 7, 5:36 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
536 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             4 S RADIUM              38.12N 98.90W
05/07/2015  E1.25 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HAIL SIZE RANGED FROM QUARTERS TO HALF
            DOLLAR.

&&

RB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 6, 7:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Barber	35 min
May 7, 1:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Pratt	40 min
May 7, 2:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Stafford	45 min
May 7, 3:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Pawnee	41 min
May 7, 3:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Hodgeman	51 min
May 7, 3:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Gray, Seward	46 min
May 7, 3:51 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	DDC	Gray, Haskell	24 min
May 7, 4:11 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	DDC	Gray, Haskell	21 min
May 7, 4:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Edwards, Ford, Hodgeman, Pawnee	51 min
May 7, 4:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Hodgeman	50 min
May 7, 4:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Hodgeman, Ness, Rush	57 min
May 7, 5:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Pawnee, Rush, Stafford	44 min
May 7, 5:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Gray	38 min
May 7, 5:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ellis	19 min
May 7, 5:59 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	DDC	Morton	32 min
May 7, 6:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ness, Trego	56 min
May 7, 6:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ellis, Trego	52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.