Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Dodge City, KS

April 18, 2015Pratt County, Stafford County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 18, 2015, 4:47 PM CDT for Pratt County, Stafford County, Kansas. It was in force for 34 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Apr 18, 2015, 4:47 PM CDT (21:47 UTC)
Expired: Apr 18, 2015, 5:21 PM CDT
In force: 34 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Pratt County, KS, Stafford County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Apr 18, 4:49 PM CDT	HAIL 0.75	3 E Saint John, KS
Apr 18, 4:50 PM CDT	HAIL 0.88	2 Ene Saint John, KS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 18, 2:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 110 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 192 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -124 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 897 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -48 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 9 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

342 
WUUS53 KDDC 182147
SVRDDC
KSC151-185-182245-
/O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0038.150418T2147Z-150418T2245Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
447 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  STAFFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 447 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF
  STAFFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
           WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ST. JOHN...STAFFORD...HUDSON...SEWARD...NEOLA AND ZENITH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3778 9880 3820 9885 3826 9876 3826 9847
      3780 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 234DEG 25KT 3803 9862 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

RUSSELL

1 follow-up statement

169 
WWUS53 KDDC 182221
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
521 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

KSC151-185-182231-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-150418T2245Z/
STAFFORD KS-PRATT KS-
521 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR STAFFORD AND NORTHEASTERN
PRATT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3778 9880 3820 9885 3826 9876 3826 9847
      3780 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 234DEG 25KT 3744 9864 

$$

RUSSELL

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 18, 2:47 PM CDT, 2 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 18, 2:47 PM CDT, 2 hours before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
247 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ABBREVIATED SHORT TERM DUE TO CONVECTION ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THE GENERAL
STORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THINK THE MOST LIKEST PLACE (IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW),
IS ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE. THIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM TREGO COUNTY,
JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY, AND DOWN TO EAST CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY. INSTABILITY
AND BULK SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENT AND
THEN STORM TYPE EVOLVING INTO A LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MID EVENING. INITIALLY, IT WILL BE A LARGE HAIL EVENT WITH THE LHP FORECAST
HAIL SIZE OF AROUND 2". THIS SHOULD BE THE MAX SIZE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH HEIGHT WITH TIME, SO THINK BENEFICIAL COMPETITION WILL INCREASE
AS TIME GOES FORWARD...HENCE, HAIL SIZE GROWTH POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MITIGATED. FOR A TORNADO CONCERN, LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT WINDOW ACROSS BARBER, COMANCHE, AND PRATT COUNTIES,
WHERE THIS IMPROVES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THINK ACTIVITY WON'T BE
AS DISCRETE BY THAT TIME. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD THEN EVOLVE INTO A CONVECTIVE
WIND OUTFLOW CONCERN. BOTTOM LINE, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS JUST NOT
THAT CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES, EXCEPT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND ONLY FOR A SMALL WINDOW. OTHERWISE, SEVERE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 03Z OR SO. A DEFORMATION BAND
IS FORECAST BEHIND THE MID TO LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION AND THINK
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS WAKE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS
SHOW DECENT QPF WITH THIS ACTIVITY, SO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES MIGHT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRANSITIONING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK SETTING UP GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ASHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ALONG WITH A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR PRESENT IN THE
LOWER/MID LEVELS, PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF H5
VORT MAXIMA BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE COLORADO ROCKIES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. HELPING SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
KANSAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, BRINGING ABOUT A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS UP INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS, ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
TO BE ISOLATED AND HIGH BASED. PRECIP CHANCES RETURN IN EARNEST
MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ASHORE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE WEEK MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED MONDAY IN
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
MID SINGLE DIGITS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH THE
HELP OF A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW, HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S(F) TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE GENERAL WARMING TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE GENERAL FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE KDDC TERMINAL. SECOND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KHYS. TIMING
SHOULD BE 20-22Z FOR KDDC AND 21-23Z FOR KHYS. KGCK SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF THE DRYLINE AND THUS CONVECTION FREE. WILL MAINTAIN THE TSRA/CB GROUPS
FOR THE TWO TERMINALS. SOME HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
SHOULD A SEVERE TS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MORNING
NORTHWESTERLY 15-30 KT WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEFORMATION BAND AROUND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  59  36  61 /  50  70  10  10
GCK  43  56  34  60 /  50  70  10  10
EHA  41  57  36  61 /  30  30  10  20
LBL  43  58  37  61 /  30  40  10  10
HYS  49  58  34  61 /  70  70   0  10
P28  51  67  38  63 /  70  70   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 18, 4:24 AM CDT, 12 hours 23 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
424 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-191115-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
424 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE, WITH HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT,
EAST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

FINCH

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 18, 3:27 PM CDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
327 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             HAVILAND                37.62N 99.11W
04/18/2015  M1.00 INCH       KIOWA              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SUGDEN

Local storm report, Apr 18, 3:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     HAIL             4 NE HUDSON             38.15N 98.62W
04/18/2015  E0.88 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

            MOST OF THE HAIL WAS PEA SIZE.

&&

NWS DODGE CITY KS
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, Apr 18, 3:59 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
359 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     HAIL             4 NE HUDSON             38.15N 98.62W
04/18/2015  E0.88 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

            MOST OF THE HAIL WAS PEA SIZE.

&&

LEE

Local storm report, Apr 18, 4:28 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
428 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             2 E HOPEWELL            37.81N 98.94W
04/18/2015  E1.00 INCH       PRATT              KS   PUBLIC

            THE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

LEE

Special weather statement, Apr 18, 4:28 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
428 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

KSZ066-182215-
STAFFORD KS-
428 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STAFFORD COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM
CDT...

AT 428 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ST. JOHN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. JOHN...STAFFORD...HUDSON...DILLWYN...NEOLA AND ZENITH.

LAT...LON 3783 9889 3813 9889 3826 9857 3826 9847
      3783 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 237DEG 33KT 3797 9879

RUSSELL

Local storm report, Apr 18, 4:42 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
442 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     HAIL             4 WNW STAFFORD          37.99N 98.67W
04/18/2015  E1.00 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

&&

LEE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 17, 7:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ness, Trego	53 min
Apr 17, 8:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Trego	63 min
Apr 17, 9:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ellis, Trego	43 min
Apr 18, 4:42 AM CDT	Dense Fog Advisory	DDC	Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford, Gray and 9 more	4 hr
Apr 18, 1:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Stafford	59 min
Apr 18, 1:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Pratt	36 min
Apr 18, 1:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Kiowa	48 min
Apr 18, 2:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Edwards, Kiowa, Pratt, Stafford	50 min
Apr 18, 2:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Pawnee, Stafford	63 min
Apr 18, 2:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Comanche	63 min
Apr 18, 2:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Clark, Comanche	42 min
Apr 18, 3:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Barber, Comanche, Kiowa	57 min
Apr 18, 3:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Edwards, Kiowa, Pratt, Stafford	53 min
Apr 18, 3:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Stafford	48 min
Apr 18, 3:40 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DDC	Barber, Comanche, Kiowa	24 min
Apr 18, 4:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Barber, Pratt	24 min
Apr 18, 4:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Stafford	47 min
Apr 18, 4:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Pratt	40 min
Apr 18, 5:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Barber	32 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.