Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Dodge City, KS

919 
WWUS53 KDDC 182140
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
440 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

KSC007-151-182149-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-150418T2200Z/
BARBER KS-PRATT KS-
440 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN BARBER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SMALL HAIL TO AROUND 
NICKEL SIZE MAY STILL BE A THREAT. 

LAT...LON 3715 9900 3744 9900 3757 9850 3747 9846
      3739 9846 3738 9843 3720 9837
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 230DEG 28KT 3742 9867 

$$

RUSSELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
247 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ABBREVIATED SHORT TERM DUE TO CONVECTION ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THE GENERAL
STORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THINK THE MOST LIKEST PLACE (IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW),
IS ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE. THIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM TREGO COUNTY,
JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY, AND DOWN TO EAST CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY. INSTABILITY
AND BULK SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENT AND
THEN STORM TYPE EVOLVING INTO A LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MID EVENING. INITIALLY, IT WILL BE A LARGE HAIL EVENT WITH THE LHP FORECAST
HAIL SIZE OF AROUND 2". THIS SHOULD BE THE MAX SIZE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH HEIGHT WITH TIME, SO THINK BENEFICIAL COMPETITION WILL INCREASE
AS TIME GOES FORWARD...HENCE, HAIL SIZE GROWTH POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MITIGATED. FOR A TORNADO CONCERN, LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT WINDOW ACROSS BARBER, COMANCHE, AND PRATT COUNTIES,
WHERE THIS IMPROVES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THINK ACTIVITY WON'T BE
AS DISCRETE BY THAT TIME. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD THEN EVOLVE INTO A CONVECTIVE
WIND OUTFLOW CONCERN. BOTTOM LINE, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS JUST NOT
THAT CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES, EXCEPT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND ONLY FOR A SMALL WINDOW. OTHERWISE, SEVERE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 03Z OR SO. A DEFORMATION BAND
IS FORECAST BEHIND THE MID TO LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION AND THINK
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS WAKE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS
SHOW DECENT QPF WITH THIS ACTIVITY, SO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES MIGHT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRANSITIONING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK SETTING UP GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ASHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ALONG WITH A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR PRESENT IN THE
LOWER/MID LEVELS, PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF H5
VORT MAXIMA BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE COLORADO ROCKIES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. HELPING SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
KANSAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, BRINGING ABOUT A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS UP INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS, ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
TO BE ISOLATED AND HIGH BASED. PRECIP CHANCES RETURN IN EARNEST
MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ASHORE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE WEEK MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED MONDAY IN
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
MID SINGLE DIGITS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH THE
HELP OF A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW, HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S(F) TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE GENERAL WARMING TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE GENERAL FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE KDDC TERMINAL. SECOND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KHYS. TIMING
SHOULD BE 20-22Z FOR KDDC AND 21-23Z FOR KHYS. KGCK SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF THE DRYLINE AND THUS CONVECTION FREE. WILL MAINTAIN THE TSRA/CB GROUPS
FOR THE TWO TERMINALS. SOME HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
SHOULD A SEVERE TS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MORNING
NORTHWESTERLY 15-30 KT WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEFORMATION BAND AROUND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  59  36  61 /  50  70  10  10
GCK  43  56  34  60 /  50  70  10  10
EHA  41  57  36  61 /  30  30  10  20
LBL  43  58  37  61 /  30  40  10  10
HYS  49  58  34  61 /  70  70   0  10
P28  51  67  38  63 /  70  70   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
424 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-191115-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
424 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE, WITH HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT,
EAST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

FINCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             3 N BUTTERMILK          37.15N 99.34W
04/18/2015  M1.00 INCH       COMANCHE           KS   STORM CHASER

&&

SUGDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     HAIL             ST. JOHN                38.00N 98.76W
04/18/2015  M1.50 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

&&

SUGDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             HAVILAND                37.62N 99.11W
04/18/2015  E1.00 INCH       KIOWA              KS   PUBLIC

&&

JRJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
327 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             HAVILAND                37.62N 99.11W
04/18/2015  M1.00 INCH       KIOWA              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SUGDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     HAIL             4 NE HUDSON             38.15N 98.62W
04/18/2015  E0.88 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

            MOST OF THE HAIL WAS PEA SIZE.

&&

NWS DODGE CITY KS
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
359 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     HAIL             4 NE HUDSON             38.15N 98.62W
04/18/2015  E0.88 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

            MOST OF THE HAIL WAS PEA SIZE.

&&

LEE