Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Dodge City, KS

August 4, 2015Pawnee County, Rush County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 4, 2015, 8:22 PM CDT for Pawnee County, Rush County, Kansas. It was in force for 40 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 4, 2015, 8:22 PM CDT (01:22 UTC)
Expired: Aug 4, 2015, 9:02 PM CDT
In force: 40 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Pawnee County, KS, Rush County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 4, 8:25 PM CDT	HAIL 1	3 Se Alexander, KS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 3 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 4, 1:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr
Aug 4, 5:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	4 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 76 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 906 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -98 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1853 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 58 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 116 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

853 
WUUS53 KDDC 050122
SVRDDC
KSC145-165-050215-
/O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0245.150805T0122Z-150805T0215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
822 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 821 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED VERY NEAR
  ALEXANDER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED AND PUBLIC REPORT.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LARNED...BURDETT...ROZEL...ALEXANDER...ASH VALLEY...SANFORD...
  FRIZELL AND NEKOMA.

AT 819 PM...QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN ALEXANDER

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3848 9958 3850 9948 3818 9902 3811 9951
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 326DEG 25KT 3845 9953 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

UMSCHEID

2 follow-up statements

193 
WWUS53 KDDC 050143
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
843 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

KSC165-050152-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0245.000000T0000Z-150805T0215Z/
RUSH KS-

843 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN RUSH COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3830 9953 3831 9937 3815 9920 3811 9951
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 326DEG 25KT 3825 9944 

$$

KSC145-050215-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0245.000000T0000Z-150805T0215Z/
PAWNEE KS-
843 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY...

AT 842 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ROZEL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROZEL AND SANFORD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3830 9953 3831 9937 3815 9920 3811 9951
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 326DEG 25KT 3825 9944 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

UMSCHEID

080 
WWUS53 KDDC 050202
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
902 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

KSC145-050212-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0245.000000T0000Z-150805T0215Z/
PAWNEE KS-
902 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3830 9953 3831 9937 3815 9920 3811 9951
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 326DEG 25KT 3754 9991 

$$

UMSCHEID

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 4, 6:08 PM CDT, 2 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 4, 6:08 PM CDT, 2 hours 14 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
608 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough and an
associated H5 vort max exiting the Wyoming Rockies and pushing into
the high plains of western Nebraska tonight setting the stage for
possible thunderstorms across central and portions of western Kansas
through early Wednesday. As the system kicks out into the high
plains, a surface low will continue to organize near and along
the Kansas/Colorado border in west central Kansas with a near
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward into central
Kansas. Meanwhile, a return flow will continue to supply ample
moisture into the state with surface dewpoints remaining well up
into the 60s(F). As low/mid level lapse rates steepen late this
afternoon into early evening, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in a area of destabilization on the back side of an
eroding cloud shield and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
With the NAM/GFS showing SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/KG and
favorable vertical shear profiles, thunderstorms could become
severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
Although the flow aloft will be less than favorable, an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out based on favorable hodographs.

Seasonal temperatures are expected again tonight as a prevailing
southerly flow reinforces the mild air mass in place across the high
plains. Considering increased cloud cover across central Kansas
tonight and likely precip about, look for lows down into the
60s(F) across Central Kansas to possibly the lower 70s(F) in South
Central Kansas. A weak cold front is projected to push across
western Kansas Wednesday dropping temperatures across all of
central and much of southwest Kansas. Highs are expected to reach
only up into the 80s(F) in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor to
the 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon where
H85 temperatures will still be up near 30C.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

There is an outside chance for thunderstorms across central Kansas
late Thursday as medium range models indicate an upper level
shortwave tracks eastward across the northern plains early in the
time period. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly weak above
much of southwest and south central Kansas, all models show a
modest upper level jet core streaming eastward eastward across
Nebraska and clipping portions of northern Kansas. As low/mid
level lapse rates steepen in conjunction with the arrival of a
cold front attendant to the shortwave to our north, a few isolated
thunderstorms could develop across central Kansas in the vicinity
of the I-70 corridor during the late Thursday afternoon/early
evening time frame. Otherwise, drier conditions are likely across
central and southwest Kansas through Friday as upper level ridging
across the desert southwest and southern Rockies moves east into
the Western High Plains. Chances for precip may return Friday
night as the GFS and ECMWF both show a weak upper level shortwave
ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of
northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas.
Plenty of uncertainty remains as to the track and timing of this
system but the best chance for thunderstorms looks to be across
more northern portions of the forecast area, to include west
central and central Kansas, if at all.

Seasonal temperatures can be expected Thursday as a low level
southerly flow re-establishes itself across western Kansas ahead of
an approaching cold front. Widespread 90s(F) are expected for highs
Thursday afternoon. Highs Friday will be dependent on how far south
the frontal boundary mentioned earlier reaches before stalling out.
Regardless, highs should reach the 90s(F) for the most part,
especially further south along the Oklahoma border. Highs could
reach near 100F in some locations Saturday as the aforementioned
upper level ridging moves into the Western High Plains to finish
out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will move southeast
across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas this
evening, potentially affecting all TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday
afternoon. Southerly winds of around 15 to 25kt will persist
through early this evening as a lee side trough of low pressure
edges slowly eastward into extreme western Kansas. Winds are then
expected to subside below 15kt overnight while becoming more
variable as the surface trough moves further east across western
Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  93  69  98 /  30   0   0  10
GCK  65  94  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  65  97  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  65  97  69 100 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  65  88  68  95 /  60  10   0  20
P28  68  92  71  98 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 4, 4:13 AM CDT, 16 hours 9 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
413 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-051000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
413 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 /313 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FROM NEAR WAKEENEY, AND NESS CITY, TO HAYS
AND THE LA CROSSE AREAS AFTER 4 PM AND INTO THE EVENING. LARGE
HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE, STRONG WINDS OVER 60 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE DODGE CITY AREA.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  WEDNESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  THURSDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  MONDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

06

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 4, 7:17 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
717 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             4 SW TREGO CENTER       38.84N 99.95W
08/04/2015  E1.75 INCH       TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

&&

AW

Local storm report, Aug 4, 7:21 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
721 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 NNW KALVESTA          38.16N 100.32W
08/04/2015  E65 MPH          FINNEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AW

Local storm report, Aug 4, 7:40 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
740 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     HAIL             8 WSW CEDAR BLUFF       38.74N 99.86W
08/04/2015  E1.00 INCH       TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

&&

AW

Local storm report, Aug 4, 7:53 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
753 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW KALVESTA          38.06N 100.30W
08/04/2015  E75 MPH          FINNEY             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

AW

Local storm report, Aug 4, 8:14 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
814 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW KALVESTA          38.06N 100.30W
08/04/2015                   FINNEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PART OF ROOF IS OFF OF KALVESTA IMPLEMENT
            CO.

&&

AW

Local storm report, Aug 4, 8:21 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
821 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     HAIL             ALEXANDER               38.47N 99.55W
08/04/2015  E1.00 INCH       RUSH               KS   PUBLIC

&&

JRJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 4, 7:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Ford, Gray, Hodgeman	66 min
Aug 4, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ness, Trego	48 min
Aug 4, 8:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Clark, Ford, Meade	66 min
Aug 4, 9:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Clark	23 min
Aug 5, 2:24 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Rush	51 min
Aug 5, 2:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ellis, Rush	22 min
Aug 5, 3:26 AM CDT	Dense Fog Advisory	DDC	Edwards, Ellis, Finney, Ford, Gray, Hodgeman and 9 more	7 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.