Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
125 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TONIGHT:

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW STORM EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT.
TOOK SOME INPUT FROM THE HRRR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WRF-ARW FOR
A BASELINE OF GRID PRODUCTS. THINK CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DOWN BY LIBERAL, MEADE, AND ULYSSES AS THE WINDS ARE MORE
BACKED HERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
CAPE WILL BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR HAS THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO
A MESSY CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT, SO THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT FOR AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE EVENT, SO A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT ARE
UNDERNEATH TRAINING STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
HOWEVER, SHEAR TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER. SO STORM TYPES
MAY BE MORE ALONG THE LINE OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK WITH HEIGHT, SO A MORE MESSY
STORM TYPE IS MORE LIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT'S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
A LOCALLY SEVERE STORM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND PROVIDE REDUCED CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
TIMING OR LOCATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH TSRA/CB GROUPS FOR THIS
EVENING FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  61  80  61 /  50  60  60  70
GCK  82  59  81  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  58  80  56 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  85  60  81  60 /  40  50  40  50
HYS  80  61  79  60 /  50  60  60  70
P28  82  64  79  65 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
140 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-281845-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
140 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  THURSDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  MONDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  TUESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
508 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     HAIL             1 E MEADE               37.29N 100.32W
05/27/2015  E1.25 INCH       MEADE              KS   PUBLIC

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
518 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             3 SW AMY                38.42N 100.64W
05/27/2015  E1.00 INCH       LANE               KS   PUBLIC

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
538 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             4 E MEADE               37.28N 100.27W
05/27/2015  E2.00 INCH       MEADE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

UMSCHEID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
556 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             12 S ALAMOTA            38.27N 100.34W
05/27/2015  E1.50 INCH       LANE               KS   PUBLIC

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
601 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TORNADO          13 N KALVESTA           38.24N 100.31W
05/27/2015                   FINNEY             KS   STORM CHASER

&&

UMSCHEID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
609 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             3 S SUBLETTE            37.44N 100.85W
05/27/2015  E1.75 INCH       HASKELL            KS   STORM CHASER

&&

JFINCH