River Flood Warning 11, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
551 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS HAS GIVEN WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
RESPONDING QUICKLY WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE LOWER-LEVEL AIR MASS
IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 55-65 F RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...ALONG WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR BENEATH FAIRLY STRONG H5 FLOW. MINIMAL CAPPING IN PLACE TODAY
SO EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 19-21Z...MAINLY ALONG LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT
PUSHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID...BEST
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ALONG A DOUGLAS-TOR-SNY LINE. A
BIT QUESTIONABLE HERE IN CHEYENNE WITH LINGERING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SFC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE WITH NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER THE PANHANDLE IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. MAY SEE A FEW TORNADOES TODAY WITH
GOOD LOW LEVEL VEERING GIVING WAY TO 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 15-25
KTS. EHI VALUES ARE HOVERING AROUND 1 IN THE LOWEST
KILOMETER...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS TO BE LOCALLY ENHANCED
NEAR ANY PRE- EXISTING BOUNDARIES.

CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. EXCELLENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
PATCHY FOG ONCE PCPN COMES TO AN END. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE MORE
BULLISH THAN THE GFS WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION...SO AM NOT
ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD LOW VSBYS. HEADING
INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...A SIMILAR MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL
EXIST WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD
THAN TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM BEING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SFC PRESSURE TROF FORMING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
THIS COMBINED WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF PROGGED SBCAPES WILL PROVIDE
ANTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LEE-SIDE SFC PRESSURE TROUGH
SLIDES EAST INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR FRIDAY. WARM MID-
LEVEL TEMPS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION AS WELL AS TRANSLATE TO
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES MOST
PLACES. ANOTHER WK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD AGAIN PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. HEIGHTS RISE FURTHER SUN-TUE WHICH
WILL SEVERELY HAMPER CONVECTION CHANCES. SO EXPECT A TREND TOWARDS
HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SUN-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OCCURRING ALONG A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO TORRINGTON. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.
THE TAF SITES BFF AND SNY WILL MOSTLY BE IMPACTED. OTHERWISE...THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
HOWEVER...WITH DECENT SHEAR SOME OF THE STORMS COULD REGENERATE.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO FORM LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
GREENUP. HOWEVER...HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO THE
AREA. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1202 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-118-119-
171815-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1202 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FEW MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WYZ103>106-109>117-171815-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
1202 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

HAMMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
710 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             NE REDINGTON            41.59N 103.30W
06/16/2015  E2.00 INCH       MORRILL            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THREE MILES WEST OF COURT HOUSE AND JAIL ROCK.

&&

MJAMSKI

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
726 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SCOTTSBLUFF             41.87N 103.66W
06/16/2015                   SCOTTS BLUFF       NE   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED A FOOT OF WATER COVERING STREETS IN DOWNTOWN
            SCOTTSBLUFF.

&&

MJAMSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
729 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

NEZ021-170215-
MORRILL NE-
729 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MORRILL COUNTY UNTIL 815
PM MDT...

AT 729 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BRIDGEPORT STATE RECREATION AREA...OR 27 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SCOTTSBLUFF...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRIDGEPORT...COURT HOUSE AND JAIL ROCKS...NORTHPORT...THE
INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 385 AND 92...BRIDGEPORT STATE RECREATION AREA
AND BROADWATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN CHEYENNE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4158 10330 4176 10328 4177 10269 4150 10271
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 274DEG 22KT 4167 10320

HAMMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
736 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             3 S HAWK SPRINGS        41.75N 104.27W
06/16/2015  E1.50 INCH       GOSHEN             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RCOX