Alert archive / Nebraska / Areal Flood Advisories in 2015

Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Cheyenne, WY

June 16, 2015Scotts Bluff County, Nebraska

NWS Cheyenne, WY issued this areal flood advisory at Jun 16, 2015, 6:56 PM MDT for Scotts Bluff County, Nebraska. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 16, 2015, 6:56 PM MDT (00:56 UTC)
Expired: Jun 16, 2015, 10:00 PM MDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Cheyenne, WY
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Scotts Bluff County, NE

The radar

The Cheyenne radar (KCYS), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 00:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 224 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 85 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -111 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2903 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 81 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 87 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Cheyenne, WY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood advisory went out at Jun 16, 5:51 PM MDT, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 16, 5:51 PM MDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
551 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS HAS GIVEN WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
RESPONDING QUICKLY WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE LOWER-LEVEL AIR MASS
IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 55-65 F RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...ALONG WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR BENEATH FAIRLY STRONG H5 FLOW. MINIMAL CAPPING IN PLACE TODAY
SO EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 19-21Z...MAINLY ALONG LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT
PUSHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID...BEST
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ALONG A DOUGLAS-TOR-SNY LINE. A
BIT QUESTIONABLE HERE IN CHEYENNE WITH LINGERING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SFC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE WITH NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER THE PANHANDLE IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. MAY SEE A FEW TORNADOES TODAY WITH
GOOD LOW LEVEL VEERING GIVING WAY TO 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 15-25
KTS. EHI VALUES ARE HOVERING AROUND 1 IN THE LOWEST
KILOMETER...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS TO BE LOCALLY ENHANCED
NEAR ANY PRE- EXISTING BOUNDARIES.

CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. EXCELLENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
PATCHY FOG ONCE PCPN COMES TO AN END. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE MORE
BULLISH THAN THE GFS WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION...SO AM NOT
ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD LOW VSBYS. HEADING
INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...A SIMILAR MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL
EXIST WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD
THAN TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM BEING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SFC PRESSURE TROF FORMING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
THIS COMBINED WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF PROGGED SBCAPES WILL PROVIDE
ANTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LEE-SIDE SFC PRESSURE TROUGH
SLIDES EAST INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR FRIDAY. WARM MID-
LEVEL TEMPS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION AS WELL AS TRANSLATE TO
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES MOST
PLACES. ANOTHER WK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD AGAIN PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. HEIGHTS RISE FURTHER SUN-TUE WHICH
WILL SEVERELY HAMPER CONVECTION CHANCES. SO EXPECT A TREND TOWARDS
HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SUN-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OCCURRING ALONG A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO TORRINGTON. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.
THE TAF SITES BFF AND SNY WILL MOSTLY BE IMPACTED. OTHERWISE...THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
HOWEVER...WITH DECENT SHEAR SOME OF THE STORMS COULD REGENERATE.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO FORM LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
GREENUP. HOWEVER...HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO THE
AREA. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 16, 12:02 PM MDT, 6 hours 54 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1202 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-118-119-
171815-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1202 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FEW MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WYZ103>106-109>117-171815-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
1202 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

HAMMER

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 16, 6:16 PM MDT, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
616 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     HAIL             4 N HENRY               42.06N 104.05W
06/16/2015  E2.50 INCH       SIOUX              NE   PUBLIC

            TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

MJAMSKI

Local storm report, Jun 16, 6:17 PM MDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
617 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     HAIL             MORRILL                 41.96N 103.92W
06/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       SCOTTS BLUFF       NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MJAMSKI

Special weather statement, Jun 16, 6:27 PM MDT, 29 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
627 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

WYZ107-108-170115-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY WY-GOSHEN COUNTY WY-
627 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GOSHEN AND EAST CENTRAL
PLATTE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM MDT...

AT 627 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES WEST OF VETERAN...OR 20 MILES EAST OF WHEATLAND...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YODER...VETERAN...HAWK SPRINGS...HUNTLEY AND SLATER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING.

LAT...LON 4187 10469 4207 10465 4199 10406 4171 10407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 285DEG 34KT 4196 10458

COX

Local storm report, Jun 16, 6:33 PM MDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
633 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             1 S MITCHELL            41.93N 103.81W
06/16/2015  E1.50 INCH       SCOTTS BLUFF       NE   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MJAMSKI

Local storm report, Jun 16, 6:43 PM MDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
643 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HAIL             4 N WHEATLAND           42.11N 104.96W
06/16/2015  E0.50 INCH       PLATTE             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KC

Local storm report, Jun 16, 6:55 PM MDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
655 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             NE SCOTTSBLUFF          41.87N 103.66W
06/16/2015  E0.75 INCH       SCOTTS BLUFF       NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MJAMSKI

The office that day

Everything else NWS Cheyenne, WY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 16, 6:03 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CYS	Goshen	27 min
Jun 16, 6:03 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CYS	Albany, Converse, Platte	27 min
Jun 16, 6:23 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CYS	Goshen	37 min
Jun 16, 6:27 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	CYS	Goshen	48 min
Jun 16, 6:35 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CYS	Goshen	40 min
Jun 16, 7:12 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CYS	Goshen, Laramie	48 min
Jun 17, 3:11 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	CYS	Laramie	34 min
Jun 17, 3:21 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	CYS	Laramie	39 min
Jun 17, 3:47 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	CYS	Laramie	28 min
Jun 17, 4:06 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CYS	Laramie, Platte	24 min
Jun 17, 4:37 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	CYS	Goshen	38 min
Jun 17, 4:43 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	CYS	Laramie	47 min
Jun 17, 4:46 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CYS	Goshen, Laramie	44 min
Jun 17, 5:24 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CYS	Goshen	36 min
Jun 17, 5:34 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	CYS	Goshen	41 min
Jun 17, 5:39 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CYS	Goshen	36 min
Jun 16, 6:14 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	CYS	Morrill	31 min
Jun 16, 6:19 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CYS	Banner, Morrill, Scotts Bluff	41 min
Jun 16, 6:44 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	CYS	Morrill	46 min
Jun 16, 6:59 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CYS	Scotts Bluff	15 min
Jun 16, 7:09 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	CYS	Scotts Bluff	3 hr
Jun 16, 7:29 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	CYS	Morrill	46 min
Jun 16, 7:44 PM MDT	River Flood Warning	CYS	Scotts Bluff	62 hr
Jun 16, 8:12 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	CYS	Scotts Bluff	3 hr
Jun 16, 8:19 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CYS	Cheyenne, Morrill	11 min
Jun 16, 10:16 PM MDT	Areal Flood Warning	CYS	Scotts Bluff	3 hr
Jun 17, 5:57 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CYS	Scotts Bluff, Sioux	33 min
Jun 17, 5:58 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CYS	Scotts Bluff	3 hr

Nearby

Areal Flood Advisories in Nebraska, 2015 Every areal flood advisory in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.