Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
506 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. AFTER
SOME DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION IMPACTING LOWER TO MIDDLE SUSQ AT THIS HOUR
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PA. A FEW HOURS OF TRAINING HAVE PROMPTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...AND EXPANSION BEING CONSIDERED INTO THE LOWER SUSQ AT
PRESENT AT LINE BEARS DOWN ON THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG ROTATION HAVE BEEN INTERROGATED WITH NO
CONFIRMED TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS...BUT SEVERAL SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. WILL CLEAR A FEW TOR WATCH COUNTIES
SHORTLY WEST OF THE MAIN ACTION WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
FRANKLNI COUNTY NORTHEAST TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY.

WITH MODERATE CAPE AND STRONG WIND SHEAR...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS. BEST
THREAT REMAINS OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY WHERE HELICITY IS MAXIMIZED.
MAIN THREAT IS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO HEAVY RAIN...BUT LARGE
HAIL THREAT ALSO EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS BEING DRIVEN BY POTENT UPPER JET ENTRANCE
REGION...WITH PW IN EXCESS OF 1.5". SLOW MOVING FRONT EDGING
THROUGH THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TRAINING
CONCERNS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT IS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR FLASH FLOOD WASH ISSUANCE AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ACTIVITY DECREASES IN INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO THE PRE DAWN
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE/PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY
EARLY IN THE DAY SO THE POTENT TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ON AN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWERS 70S TO LOWER 80S
FROM NW TO SE WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR
EARLY JUNE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY...NAEFSBC SHOWS
UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUNDING OVER THE EASTERN US SUGGESTING A
RESURGENCE OF WARMTH AND EARLY SUMMER HUMIDITY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHEARING OUT AS
THEY SKIRT THE AREA TO THE NORTH...RE-INTRODUCING THE LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS
AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SHARP REDUCTIONS IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NOTED ACROSS MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA
AIRFIELDS. MAIN THREATS IN STRONGER STORMS BEING STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN...REDUCING VSBY AND CIGS TO IFR AND BRIEF LIFR AT KMDT
AND KSEG THROUGH 600 PM.

AREAS OF RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS AND LOWER CIGS REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CROSSES CWA. SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUE AS
TROUGH LIFTS OUT. BUT IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR AS DAY WEARS ON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MVFR WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR LATER PART OF THE DAY.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU-SAT...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
LONG TERM...WATSON/LA CORTE
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
244 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-091845-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
244 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-091845-
NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-
MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
244 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...TORNADO WATCH 276 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

THE POTENTIAL IS ALSO THERE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS STORMS COULD MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS AND SHARP
RISES ON SOME SMALL STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
403 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

PAZ056-082030-
PERRY PA-
403 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PERRY COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 403 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LOYSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

40 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NEW BLOOMFIELD AROUND 415 PM EDT.
  NEWPORT AROUND 420 PM EDT.
  DUNCANNON AROUND 425 PM EDT.
  NEW BUFFALO AROUND 430 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE LANDISBURG AND
LIVERPOOL.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4031 7739 4037 7741 4057 7699 4053 7698
      4051 7698 4050 7697 4046 7696 4042 7701
      4036 7701 4035 7693 4035 7700
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 247DEG 40KT 4035 7733

DEVOIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
413 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N DONATION            40.58N  77.94W
06/08/2015                   HUNTINGDON         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DAMAGE LARGE LIMBS DOWN ON RTE 26

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1500086

PAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
420 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW MILLERSTOWN        40.56N  77.17W
06/08/2015                   PERRY              PA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE DOWN ON RTE 322 BLOCKING RIGHT LANE AND BERM

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1500087

PAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
448 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE PORT ALLEGANY     41.79N  78.26W
06/08/2015                   MCKEAN             PA   PA D.O.T.

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON ROUTE 333 AT TUSCARORA ROAD IN
            TURBETT TOWNSHIP

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1500088

PAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
449 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MEXICO                  40.54N  77.35W
06/08/2015                   JUNIATA            PA   PA D.O.T.

            MULTIPLE TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON DOE RUN ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1500089

PAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
508 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTH WILLIAMSPORT      41.23N  77.00W
06/08/2015                   LYCOMING           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1500090

MACH