Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
819 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY...AND AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. AFTER
SOME DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE IS INCREASING WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE SURGING NE
AND NOW WORKING INTO CENTRAL PA IN THE AXIS OF 40-50KT LLJ.

AS OVERNIGHT SHOWERS CLEAR CWA TO THE EAST...MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR NEW CONVECTION MOVING INTO NWRN PA.

LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF DIABATIC HEATING IN
THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MODELS THEN SHOW FAIRLY RAPID
DESTABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME ACTIVE GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT
OF MODERATE CAPE AND STRONG WIND SHEAR. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK WITH THE ONLY POSSIBLE MITIGATING FACTOR BEING HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE CAN MANAGE. THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
GOES FURTHER AND SUGGESTS A POCKET OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
HELICITY FOLLOWS THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN PA
SUGGESTING IF WE CAN GET SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ANOTHER RISK WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS LATER TODAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE TAIL OF THE POTENT UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT ANOMALIES OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL WILL BE IN PLACE. AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT EDGES SOUTH IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...TRAINING OF CONVECTION WILL BECOME A
CONCERN. NO REAL AREA STICKS OUT AT THE MOMENT AS THE MOST LIKELY.
IT WILL DEPEND A LOT ON MESO BOUNDARIES AND THE PROGRESS OF THE
SLOW MOVING LARGE SCALE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SHOULD PRESENT PLENTY OF THREATS TO KEEP US
BUSY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE/PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY
EARLY IN THE DAY SO THE POTENT TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ON AN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWERS 70S TO LOWER 80S
FROM NW TO SE WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR
EARLY JUNE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY...NAEFSBC SHOWS
UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUNDING OVER THE EASTERN US SUGGESTING A
RESURGENCE OF WARMTH AND EARLY SUMMER HUMIDITY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHEARING OUT AS
THEY SKIRT THE AREA TO THE NORTH...RE-INTRODUCING THE LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

BULK OF THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA NOW.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN A FEW SPOTS...MAINLY NEAR LAKE
ERIE...AND FAR SW.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASING OVER PA LATE THIS EVENING. 850/500MB FLOW
FROM THE SW...BUT 925MB JET ORIENTATION MORE FROM THE SOUTH WITH
A LOCAL MAX OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BRING
A BREEZY OVERNIGHT TO RIDGETOPS AND CREATE A LOCAL EFFECT IN KIPT
RESULTING IN WINDS FROM AN UNUSUAL DIRECTION...THE SOUTH...AT
SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
A BIT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST. OTHER
THAN BFD...MUCH OF THE MORNING MAY NOT FEATURE MUCH...AS
THE MAIN TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NORTH OF LAKE
ERIE...AND FURTHER SW ACROSS THE OH VLY AT THE CURRENT TIME.

THE MAIN ACTION MAY BE LATE TODAY INTO TUE...AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MVFR WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR LATER PART OF THE DAY.
WED...NO SIG WX.
THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...WATSON/LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
412 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-090815-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
412 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

PAZ004-081615-
WARREN PA-
1113 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...A DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WARREN
COUNTY UNTIL 1215 PM EDT...

AT 1112 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR JAMESTOWN WEST TO NEAR CANADOHTA LAKE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LOTTSVILLE AND GARLAND AROUND 1135 AM EDT.
  YOUNGSVILLE AROUND 1140 AM EDT.
  RUSSELL AROUND 1155 AM EDT.
  SCANDIA AROUND 1205 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE STARBRICK AND SUGAR
GROVE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4200 7892 4189 7892 4175 7961 4192 7961
      4200 7942
TIME...MOT...LOC 1512Z 252DEG 37KT 4206 7925 4185 7975

LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1246 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

PAZ006-037-081730-
TIOGA PA-POTTER PA-
1246 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT TIOGA...AND POTTER COUNTIES
UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 1245 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GAINES...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

45 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WESTFIELD AROUND 1255 PM EDT.
  KEENEYVILLE AROUND 105 PM EDT.
  ELKLAND AROUND 110 PM EDT.
  LAWRENCEVILLE AROUND 120 PM EDT.
  MILLERTON AROUND 130 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE KNOXVILLE...OSCEOLA...
TIOGA...TIOGA JUNCTION AND ROSEVILLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4187 7691 4179 7768 4186 7774 4200 7742
      4200 7693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 253DEG 43KT 4184 7762

LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
141 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

PAZ019-027-028-049-050-081815-
UNION PA-MIFFLIN PA-JUNIATA PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-SNYDER PA-
141 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT UNION...MIFFLIN...JUNIATA...
SOUTHERN CENTRE...AND SNYDER COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 141 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BURNHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  REEDS GAP STATE PARK AROUND 145 PM EDT.
  BELLTOWN AROUND 150 PM EDT.
  MCCLURE AND MCALISTERVILLE AROUND 155 PM EDT.
  BEAVER SPRINGS...SNYDER-MIDDLESWART STATE PARK AND WEIKERT AROUND
200 PM EDT.
  TROXELVILLE AND LAURELTON CENTER AROUND 205 PM EDT.
  PENNS CREEK...TYRONE AND MIDDLEBURG AROUND 210 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE BEAVERTOWN...
FREEBURG...HARTLETON...MAITLAND AND MCCALL DAM STATE PARK.

FOR THOSE DRIVING ON INTERSTATE 80...THIS INCLUDES AREAS BETWEEN THE
JERSEY SHORE AND MILE RUN EXITS...SPECIFICALLY FROM MILE MARKERS 195
TO 196.

LAT...LON 4056 7757 4069 7768 4101 7727 4104 7715
      4107 7715 4107 7713 4072 7686
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 243DEG 48KT 4066 7753

GARTNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
143 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

PAZ037-041-081830-
TIOGA PA-NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-
143 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT TIOGA...AND NORTHERN LYCOMING
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 142 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CEDAR RUN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUTTONWOOD AROUND 200 PM EDT.
  OGDENSBURG AND BLOSSBURG AROUND 215 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE LIBERTY AND SKI
SAWMILL SKI AREA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4161 7688 4160 7687 4159 7682 4152 7679
      4144 7743 4153 7748 4173 7689
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 247DEG 32KT 4152 7737

LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

PAZ006-037-081845-
TIOGA PA-POTTER PA-
157 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT TIOGA...AND POTTER COUNTIES
UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 157 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HARRISON VALLEY...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WESTFIELD AROUND 205 PM EDT.
  ELKLAND AROUND 220 PM EDT.
  LAWRENCEVILLE AROUND 230 PM EDT.
  MILLERTON AROUND 240 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE KNOXVILLE...OSCEOLA...
TIOGA JUNCTION...ULYSSES AND TIOGA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4193 7692 4187 7781 4200 7783 4200 7693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 258DEG 46KT 4197 7771

LAMBERT