Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1118 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
15Z...COORDINATED WITH SPC ON NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH #342. THIS
WATCH COVERS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7PM EDT/23Z.

A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC
BORDER TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A CORRIDOR OF WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NERN U.S. LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE ERN CANADA TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING.

CONSIDERABLE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/PCPN SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN AIRMASS RECOVERY/INSTABILITY THAT WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING STORM INTENSITIES UPSTREAM OVER
WRN PA/PBZ CWA. GENERAL THINKING AMONG THE LOCAL OFFICE AND SPC
IS THAT STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE/DEVELOP ESE FROM THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
THE LATEST HRRR LARGELY AGREES WITH STORMS EXITING FAR SRN/SERN PA
AROUND 23Z. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS WILL BE
PREDICATED ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WX RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH ATTENDANT RISK
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COULD BE LINGERING ACTIVITY ALONG MASON/DIXON LINE EARLY THIS
EVE...BUT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL END CONVECTION
BY SUNSET. COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
TONIGHT - A GOOD 15-20F COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR TAKES
A BIT LONGER TO WORK INTO THE SOUTH...WITH LOWS HANGING IN THE
60S.

PLEASANT DAY ON WED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS NEARLY
SPOT ON DAILY NORMALS. THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT
AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ.

CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. THROUGH FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION MIDWEEK...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR.

WEAK SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU AND FRIDAY WILL BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST THU AND FRIDAY.

MORE SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEEN UPDATING TAFS FOR LINES AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS.

WILL BE DOING THE SAME FOR THE 15Z TAF PACKAGE.

STORMS MOVING EAST AT FAST CLIP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BY
LATE AFT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...GENERALLY VFR AREAS AM MVFR IN FOG/HAZE.

THU-SAT...REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROSS/CERU/MARTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1024 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

PAZ037-042-241430-
TIOGA-SULLIVAN-
1024 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>036-041-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-
241430-
NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-
BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-
MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1024 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 342 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ004>006-010-011-241430-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-
1024 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
918 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LUTHERSBURG             41.05N  78.72W
06/23/2015                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1500186

PAJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
919 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CURWENSVILLE            40.97N  78.52W
06/23/2015                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1500187

PAJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
920 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BRADFORD                41.96N  78.64W
06/23/2015                   MCKEAN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLOCKING ROADWAY

0608 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE CROSBY            41.76N  78.33W
06/23/2015                   MCKEAN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ALONG ROUTE
            6.

0620 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW DAHOGA            41.61N  78.73W
06/23/2015                   ELK                PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES ACROSS ROADWAY

0830 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LUTHERSBURG             41.05N  78.72W
06/23/2015                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0842 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CURWENSVILLE            40.97N  78.52W
06/23/2015                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1500183 CTP1500184 CTP1500185 CTP1500186 CTP1500187

PAJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1024 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

PAZ052-053-058-231500-
COLUMBIA PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-
1024 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT COLUMBIA...SCHUYLKILL...AND
NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM EDT...

AT 1023 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROHRSBURG TO NEAR NUMIDIA TO NEAR URBAN...
AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

40 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SHUMANS AROUND 1030 AM EDT.
  ONEIDA...SHEPPTON AND BRANDONVILLE AROUND 1035 AM EDT.
  KULPMONT AND DELANO AROUND 1040 AM EDT.
  BEURYS LAKE...MCADOO AND LAVELLE AROUND 1045 AM EDT.
  HECKSCHERVILLE...FORRESTVILLE AND FOUNTAIN SPRINGS AROUND 1050 AM
EDT.
  NEW BOSTON-MOREA...PORT CARBON AND ST. CLAIR AROUND 1055 AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE BRIAR CREEK...
BROCKTON...CENTRALIA...CUMBOLA AND GILBERTON.

FOR THOSE DRIVING ON INTERSTATE 80...THIS INCLUDES AREAS BETWEEN THE
BLOOMSBURG-LIGHT STREET AND NESCOPEK EXITS...SPECIFICALLY FROM MILE
MARKERS 237 TO 247.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 FROM MILE MARKERS 114 TO 139.

LAT...LON 4072 7579 4067 7591 4069 7669 4082 7642
      4119 7640 4120 7632 4113 7628 4113 7623
      4103 7623 4095 7621 4090 7603 4091 7600
      4080 7587 4074 7577
TIME...MOT...LOC 1423Z 265DEG 52KT 4118 7635 4089 7637 4071 7678

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CHANDLERS VALLEY        41.93N  79.30W
06/23/2015                   WARREN             PA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREES DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY

0600 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BRADFORD                41.96N  78.64W
06/23/2015                   MCKEAN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLOCKING ROADWAY

0608 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE CROSBY            41.76N  78.33W
06/23/2015                   MCKEAN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ALONG ROUTE
            6.

0620 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW DAHOGA            41.61N  78.73W
06/23/2015                   ELK                PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES ACROSS ROADWAY

0830 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LUTHERSBURG             41.05N  78.72W
06/23/2015                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0842 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CURWENSVILLE            40.97N  78.52W
06/23/2015                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1500188 CTP1500183 CTP1500184 CTP1500185 CTP1500186
CTP1500187

EVANEGO

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