Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
458 PM EDT THU AUG  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO GREATER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR
RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONT MAY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...WITH THE LARGER CONCERN BEING THE MORE
ORGANIZED LINE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN GA. COORDINATION WITH SPC
HAS RESULTED IN ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 475 THROUGH
10 PM TONIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT THE LINE FROM GA TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA OVER THE HOUR OR TWO THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WV LOOP SHOWS ONE S/W MOVING TOWARD THE SC
COAST EARL THIS AFTERNOON AND A MORE VIGOROUS S/W TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS ONE BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST S/W APPROACHING THE COAST AND
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. CURRENT MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
APPROACHING 3000 J/KG...PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND AREA IN
MID/UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW. EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HAIL WITH COLD POOL/STEEPING LAPSE
RATES APPROACHING WITH TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WOULD BE A
CONCERN IF STORMS TRAINED OVER THE SAME AREA...OTHERWISE STORM
MOTION OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL KEEP STORMS MOVING LIMITING THREAT
FROM FLOODING FROM A SINGLE STORM.

UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY WORKING EAST THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO OUR REGION AHEAD OF IT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES PROGGED TO INCREASE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING CONVECTION COULD PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.

THOUGH SOME STABILIZATION EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO RAIN COOLING COULD
REDUCE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...THINK UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL
PROVIDE A CONTINUED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. POPS HIGH IN THE MORNING THEN DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGEST LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE FOR SATURDAY. WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND
DEPARTING LOW EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
SOME...WITH UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE E CONUS...EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH SOME EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INDICATIONS OF A POSSIBLE FRONT SUGGESTS TREND TOWARDS INCREASING
POPS. GENERALLY ACCEPTED BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING.
AIRMASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE REGION THROUGH 07/02Z.

CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES TO THE COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
330 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-071930-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-
FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-
SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-BAMBERG-
330 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 475 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ015-016-071930-
LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
330 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
340 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 NW NEWBERRY          34.38N 81.78W
08/06/2015                   NEWBERRY           SC   UTILITY COMPANY

            NEWBERRY ELECTRIC COOP REPORTED POWER
            OUTAGES IN THE KINARDS AREA.

&&

WRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
444 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SW BLYTHEWOOD         34.15N 81.04W
08/06/2015                   RICHLAND           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED TREES DOWN AT
            WINNSBORO RD. AND LORICK RD.

&&

WRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
448 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E MCCORMICK           33.92N 82.22W
08/06/2015                   MCCORMICK          SC   911 CALL CENTER

            DISPATCH REPORTED TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 378
            ABOUT 4 MILES EAST OF MCCORMICK.

&&

WRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
504 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE DENTSVILLE         34.07N 80.95W
08/06/2015                   RICHLAND           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED TREES DOWN ON ONEIL
            COURT AT TRENHOLM ROAD.

&&

WRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
505 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE DENTSVILLE         34.13N 80.89W
08/06/2015                   RICHLAND           SC   PUBLIC

            POWER OUTAGE REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

DA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
507 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

SCZ020-062145-
NEWBERRY-
507 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NEWBERRY COUNTY...

AT 506 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WESTERN COUNTY LINE
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWBERRY...WHITMIRE...PROSPERITY...SILVERSTREET AND KINARDS.

LAT...LON 3449 8157 3445 8154 3449 8149 3449 8144
      3415 8143 3422 8193 3430 8190 3432 8185
      3435 8183 3435 8181 3437 8178 3444 8173
      3446 8169 3453 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 260DEG 24KT 3436 8178