Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO GREATER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR
RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONT MAY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS ONE S/W MOVING TOWARD THE SC COAST EARL THIS AFTERNOON
AND A MORE VIGOROUS S/W TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 88D
REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS ONE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST S/W APPROACHING THE COAST AND ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CURRENT MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS AT
LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG...PW VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES AND AREA IN MID/UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW. EXPECT TO SEE
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HAIL WITH COLD
POOL/STEEPING LAPSE RATES APPROACHING WITH TROUGH. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WOULD BE A CONCERN IF STORMS TRAINED OVER THE SAME AREA...OTHERWISE
STORM MOTION OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL KEEP STORMS MOVING LIMITING THREAT
FROM FLOODING FROM A SINGLE STORM.

UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY WORKING EAST THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO OUR REGION AHEAD OF IT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES PROGGED TO INCREASE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING CONVECTION COULD PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.

THOUGH SOME STABILIZATION EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO RAIN COOLING COULD
REDUCE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...THINK UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL
PROVIDE A CONTINUED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. POPS HIGH IN THE MORNING THEN DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGEST LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE FOR SATURDAY. WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND
DEPARTING LOW EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
SOME...WITH UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE E CONUS...EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH SOME EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INDICATIONS OF A POSSIBLE FRONT SUGGESTS TREND TOWARDS INCREASING
POPS. GENERALLY ACCEPTED BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT NEAR OR IN THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES OR HIGHER. WV LOOP SHOWS ONE S/W MOVING
CROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT S/W TO APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS CONVECT
AHEAD OF FIRST S/WW ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE CWA ACROSS GA. HAVE INCLUDED TSRA IN THE
FORECAST IN A COUPLE OF TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST AS CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS S/W MOVES TOWARD THE COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
407 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-070815-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
407 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STROMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

SCZ015-020-021-061830-
NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-LANCASTER-
131 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN FAIRFIELD...
LANCASTER AND NORTHERN NEWBERRY COUNTIES...

AT 128 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST NEWBERRY CHESTER
AND NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWBERRY...LANCASTER...WAXHAW...WHITMIRE...ELGIN...HEATH SPRINGS...
IRWIN...BLACKSTOCK...FISHING CREEK RESERVOIR AND LANCASTER MILL.

LAT...LON 3507 8090 3493 8078 3482 8080 3482 8061
      3464 8045 3422 8178 3443 8174 3453 8164
      3449 8149 3450 8142 3457 8142 3455 8087
      3465 8089 3470 8086 3483 8090 3484 8087
      3493 8086 3501 8091
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 240DEG 49KT 3449 8157