Winter Weather Advisory 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
105 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND BRING A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA SATURDAY...WHICH WILL THEN CHANGE OVER TO
PLAIN RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FLOOD BACK ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND BRING RENEWED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO QUICKLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
NORTHEAST WAYNE TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH AN INCH OR LESS
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ALL THE WAY TO NIAGARA COUNTY.
LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT IS EVEN WEAKER...WITH A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING ANOTHER DUSTING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. WITH THIS IN MIND ALL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ENDED.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW NARROW CORRIDORS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER THE BUFFALO METRO AREA
AND THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO
PEAK IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TODAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT THEN
FALLING TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT FLOW FOUND OVER THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL
QUICKLY PHASE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...AND AS IS ALMOST
ALWAYS THE CASE...THIS WILL COME AS A RESULT OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM IN THE EAST. HEREIN LIES THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT PRODUCED
MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
A FEW DAYS AGO WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND EJECT OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL SPAWN AN IMPRESSIVE
'CUTTER' STORM AT THE SFC. A BROAD...DISORGANIZED SFC LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A
DEEPENING STORM OVER LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IS COMMON
WITH 'CUTTER' TYPE STORMS...THE DYNAMIC CYCLONE WILL TRACK BY TO OUR
WEST...AND THIS WILL USHER IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER...BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY...IT WILL GENERATE A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS ALL OF OUR
REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 12 TO 18 HOUR STRETCH OF STRONG WINDS
THAT REACH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA.

ON SATURDAY...A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM WHILE A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
NOT ONLY ADVECT NORTHWARD A WEALTH OF MOISTURE OUT OF A WIDE OPEN
GULF...BUT WILL LIFT THIS MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE ENSUING WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY QUICK MOISTENING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PCPN BREAKING OUT
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A SHIELD OF STEADY PCPN
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES BY
EVENING. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE P-TYPE...AND BY THE STRENGTH OF
THE ADVERTISED WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN...ANY WINTRY PCPN OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN. GIVEN
THE THERMAL PROFILES OFFERED BY THE NAM AND GFS...THE CHANGE MAY
TAKE SEVERAL HOURS HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE A FEW
INCHES. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...THIS RISK WILL BE MINIMIZED BY THE LACK OF A SOURCE OF
REINFORCING COLD AIR.

AS WAS EXCELLENTLY DESCRIBED IN A PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT FREEZING RAIN IS A SELF-LIMITING
PROCESS. A CONTINUAL FEED OF COLD/DRY AIR IS NEEDED TO OFFSET THE
LATENT HEAT RELEASE DUE TO FREEZING. THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL FREEZING
RAIN SETUP WITH SURFACE HIGH DISPLACED WELL TO OUR EAST.
INITIALLY...A SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY HELP MAINTAIN FREEZING
PRECIPITATION FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO JUST PLAIN RAIN GIVEN SLOWLY VEERING SURFACE WINDS
PROFILE...LATENT HEAT RELEASE...AND A VERY STRONG INCOMING WARM
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THINK THAT THE GREATEST RISK FOR
ACCUMULATING/IMPACTFUL ICE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WILL
BE CONTINGENT UPON MAINTAINING COLDER FLOW FOR A WHILE LONGER.

AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP LAYER ASCENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON A NORTHWARD
DRIFTING WARM FRONT AND A 160KT H25 UPPER LEVEL JET SNAKING FROM
LOWER MICHIGAN TO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD PCPN WITH ANY
MIXED PCPN IN THE EVENING CHANGING OVER TO JUST RAIN...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM A HALF TO ONE INCH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF MILD AIR TO POUR ACROSS
OUR REGION. WHILE TEMPS SAT EVENING WILL START OFF IN THE 30S...
READINGS WILL SWELL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THESE TEMPS WILL END UP BEING MORE THAN 20 DEGREES F
ABOVE TYPICAL EARLY JANUARY LEVELS.

THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AND MOVE EAST SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEAR TORONTO TO
OTTAWA...SLAMMING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE PROCESS. WHILE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST THE
CHANCE FOR PCPN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE BULK OF THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE PCPN FREE. THE TRACK OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW IS
NEARLY IDEAL FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT FOR OUR REGION...AND WITH
FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH. WOULD BE MORE CONFIDENT OF A
HIGH WIND EVENT IF THE 1.5PV SFC WAS FORECAST TO PLUNGE LOWER INTO
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MOVE OVER OUR REGION...BUT IN EITHER CASE...
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY DEEPEN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF BOTH LAKES...AND IN
PARTICULAR NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THE MERCURY
WILL TUMBLE INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY
WILL HELP TO CIRCULATE A FRIGID AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH H85 TEMPS PLUNGING TO BETWEEN -20 AND -24C ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FORTUNATELY FOR US...THE CORE OF THE BOREAL
AIRMASS WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC (H925 TEMPS -36C).
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL ONLY BE IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR MONDAY...WHILE SIGNIFICANT LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. UNLIKE THE LAKE ONTARIO CONVECTION
THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY AND
LK HURON...THE LAKE SNOWS OFF LK ERIE ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS
INTENSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE COLDER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH
AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ANCHORED BY THE
NOTORIOUS POLAR VORTEX...THAT WILL INITIALLY BE POSITIONED OVER
HUDSON BAY...BUT AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL DRIFT TO THE
LABRADOR SEA. THIS SCENARIO WILL ENCOURAGE A CROSS POLAR FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED...WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR REINFORCING FRIGID
AIR FROM EASTERN SIBERIA TO CROSS THE POLE AND EVENTUALLY RECHARGE
THE GLACIAL AIRMASS OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC. IN ESSENCE...A
SCENARIO WILL BE SET IN PLACE WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE PLENTIFUL FOR
QUITE SOME TIME...AND WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE TAPPED ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

OTHERWISE...SEVERAL ROBUST SHORTWAVES WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TOUCH OFF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT EAST OF BOTH LAKES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL AGAIN GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH AN EVEN
COLDER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE PRODUCING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AS WAS ALLUDED TO IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH OF THIS SECTION...THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION BY THE ENSEMBLES THAT THE FLOW WILL THEN BECOME MORE
PACIFIC IN NATURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND LOCAL IFR VSBY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT WILL END FIRST BY EARLY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT WILL
LINGER LONGER NEAR KFZY WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING AND ENDING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL IN MOST
AREAS AFTER ABOUT 09Z WHEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS DISSIPATE.

ON SATURDAY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS QUICKLY THICKENING AND LOWERING. EXPECT
PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE MORNING THEN
REACH KBUF-KROC BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIXED BAG WITH
MAINLY RAIN ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY INCLUDING
KROC...KIAG...AND KBUF. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING KJHW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN BY
EARLY EVENING. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO PRECIP WILL START AS A FEW HOURS
OF SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL INITIALLY HELP TO
KEEP CIGS VFR ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...BUT SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO AT LEAST MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH RAIN DIMINISHING. STRONG
WINDS.
MONDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND IFR LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
TUESDAY...IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...MVFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION AND ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...WITH CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS AREAWIDE TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A STRENGTHENING CUTTER-TYPE
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...THEN ON INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD
OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH GALES POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
938 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

NYZ004>006-008-021600-
CAYUGA NY-LEWIS NY-OSWEGO NY-WAYNE NY-
938 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...

* AT 930 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO
  ONE INCH PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY OF A HALF MILE OR LESS. THIS
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM FAIR HAVEN TO PALERMO.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...
  CONSTANTIA AND GAYVILLE...
  FULTON...
  PALERMO...
  BERNHARDS BAY AND CLEVELAND...
  SWANCOTT MILL...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN EXITS 32 AND 35.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWN
AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4342 7551 4347 7582 4333 7588 4329 7586
      4315 7589 4319 7608 4326 7620 4320 7621
      4320 7629 4323 7630 4322 7647 4307 7650
      4325 7720 4330 7716 4328 7700 4332 7679
      4335 7670 4343 7663 4354 7638 4347 7550