High Wind Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

768 
WWUS71 KBUF 030306
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1006 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085-031115-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.150104T1200Z-150105T0000Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
1006 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...WYOMING...MONROE AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
  COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY BRING DOWN A FEW TREE 
  LIMBS AND RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. THESE WINDS WILL 
  ALSO MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. IN 
  ADDITION ANY HOLIDAY DECORATIONS STILL OUTSIDE MAY BE DAMAGED 
  IF THEY ARE NOT SECURELY TIED DOWN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD BRING DOWN
TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE
PREPARED FOR TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY
TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR THE OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

SMITH

994 
WWUS71 KBUF 030831
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
331 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085-031700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0001.150104T1200Z-150105T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0001.150104T1200Z-150105T0000Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
331 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...AND
  MONROE COUNTY.

* TIMING...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
  GREATEST RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY
  MORNING AND MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS
  AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. THESE
  WINDS WILL ALSO MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
  IN ADDITION...ANY HOLIDAY DECORATIONS STILL OUTSIDE WILL BE
  DAMAGED IF THEY ARE NOT SECURELY TIED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

JJR/RSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES WILL DIMINISH AND END
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY AFTERNOON.
IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK...BUT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED AT THE
ONSET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START AS SNOW...THEN TRANSITION TO A
WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY JUST RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHARP
WARMING TREND WILL BE BRIEF AS COLD AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATER THIS
EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
WEAKENING WINDS.

OFF LAKE ERIE...LAKE EFFECT HAS DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES AND VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. THIS VERY LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO BROADEN OUT
FROM WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN VARIOUS
MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE NAM AND GEM THAT THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF RE-ORGANIZATION FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER OSWEGO
COUNTY. THIS MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO BEFORE IT WEAKENS TO
FLURRIES AND ENDS OVERNIGHT. FARTHER WEST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE LAKE
EFFECT HAS WEAKENED TO FLURRIES FROM THE MONROE COUNTY SHORE TO
NIAGARA COUNTY...AND THESE FLURRIES SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING.

OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FOR
AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY WITH LOWER TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH A COLDER AIRMASS AND BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
CLEARING.

ON SATURDAY WARM ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SUPPORTED BY A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL COMBINE WITH A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLET TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO STRONG ASCENT AND ORGANIZED PRECIP. THE PRECIP WILL
REACH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE MORNING THEN QUICKLY SPREAD
NORTH TO LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

A STRONG WARM NOSE COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
PRODUCE A MYRIAD OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS FROM
ROCHESTER TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND LAKE ERIE SHORE SOUTHEAST
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD PRECEDE THE ONSET OF PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS
AND BOOST TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. A FEW SLEET
PELLETS MAY MIX IN AT THE ONSET...BUT NO FZRA IS EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO LEAVE THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND FINGER LAKES WHERE AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF FZRA IS LIKELY. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH A QUARTER INCH IN SOME OF THE DEEPEST
VALLEYS THAT HANG ONTO THE COLD AIR THE LONGEST.

ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THE COLUMN REMAINS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW HOURS OF SNOW AT THE ONSET WITH 1-3 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG WARM NOSE PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

GIVEN THE ABOVE PRECIP TYPE SCENARIOS...WE WILL GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN/NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES COUNTIES ON SATURDAY MAINLY FOR THE PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN. AN ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION FOR THE COMBO OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ACTIVE TIME PERIOD WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO
PLAIN...HEAVY RAIN...AND THEN BACK TO RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. COUPLED WITH THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE STRONG WINDS SUNDAY
WHERE A QUICK PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE LAKE PLAINS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN POSE
IMPACTS ON THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

FOR THE DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY NOT TO BE SCOURED OUT TILL
THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHWARD BOUND WARM FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
POCKETS OF STILL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN...AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD EXPECT MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO BE PLAIN RAIN BY
MID EVENING. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ESPECIALLY THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY A SHALLOW LAYER OF SUBFREEZING AIR...COUPLED WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW UP THE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. HERE UPWARDS TO A TENTH OR TWO
OF FREEZING RAIN MAY GLAZE SURFACES. ELSEWHERE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. ON THE TUG HILL AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL
BE IN PLACE TO COVER THE IMPACTS. THE STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY TO SLOWLY
RISING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S WILL CLIMB TO THE 40S BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

A SURGE OF +3SD PWATS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH GOOD VERTICAL LIFT...IMPART DUE TO STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE REGION LYING WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 120 KNOT 250 UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE CWA WE ARE
EXPECTING BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS AND AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL
THROUGH SUNDAY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE...COMBINED
WITH SNOWMELT FROM THE RECENT LAKE SNOWS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS. PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS IS QUITE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SEVERAL OF THE BUFFALO CREEKS POSSIBLY
REACHING ACTION STAGE. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GEFS NAEFS AND SREF
MODELS WITHIN THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT CAZENOVIA...CAYUGA AND ELLICOTT CREEKS WILL REACH
ACTION STAGE WITH JUST OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT WITH
MOST OF THE HYDROLOGIC ISSUES LIKELY TO BE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREA WE
WILL NOT HOIST ANY HYDRO HEADLINES.

BY SUNDAY MORNING MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIME PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA MIDDAY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT ADVANCES FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NEARING 75 TO 80 KNOTS AT 850 HPA WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID DAY HOURS. ALSO A DRY SLOT WILL BE
PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...SUCH THAT WE MAY SEE A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THIS SUNSHINE...RISING
THE MIXING LAYER HEIGHT...COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE TRACK OF THE
DEEPENING LOW WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INLAND ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EASTWARD TOWARDS MONROE COUNTY. HERE WE WILL
PLACE A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY. THERE MAY NOT
BE AS MUCH CLEARING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO COUPLED WITH THE LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET MAY ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE A SHADE
LOWER...AND FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR JEFFERSON
COUNTY JUST YET.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL RAPIDLY FALL...FROM
NEAR +10C TO -5 TO -10C BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL SHARPLY FALL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. WHILE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REGION WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...THE LIKELIEST AREAS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE LAKES
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL YIELD SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE NOT THE GREATEST WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR AND DRYING QUICKLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
WESTERLY FLOW WITH THESE LAKE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A BROAD
MULTI BANDED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
HOWEVER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ADD ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD
PRODUCE MORE THAN JUST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY.

WHAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ONGOING MONDAY MORNING EAST OF LAKE ERIE
WILL GRADUALLY END THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO STILL
FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ALONG WITH AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION
TO LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY MAY CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...POSSIBLE MODERATE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAYTIME. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN SUNDAYS HIGHS...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS THROUGH THE DAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE NEARS MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS ALONG WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES FALLING DOWN INTO THE LOWER NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS WILL
ALLOW FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MANY AREAS. A FEW AREAS NEAR THE LAKES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW
TEENS...WHILE COLDER SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO MAY DROP BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO START THIS TIME PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PLACES AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR ALASKA...AND A SEPARATE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGED ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC COASTLINE. SEVERAL AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FOUND...ONE NEAR THE POLE AND A SECOND...A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA. FLOW
AROUND THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN THE FEED OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR.

A SHORTWAVE...LOCATED NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL PASS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND AND
DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...NEAR
SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS BY THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING A SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THIS FEATURE AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT. WHILE SNOWFALL WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL LARGELY BE IN THE SEVERAL INCH RANGE...COLDER AIR
FLOWING OVER THE LAKES...COUPLED WITH A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BRING THE RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WHICH WILL ADD ADDITIONAL
SNOW ON TOP OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW. WITHIN THE COLD AIRMASS THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY FALL TUESDAY NIGHT BE VERY LOW BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING UPON THE FINAL PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...WINDS MAY BE VERY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ONTARIO. LAKE
SNOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH FAVORING THE SW NYS HILLS
EAST OFF LAKE ERIE...AND SE OF LAKE ONTARIO...MAY BE LIMITED TO
CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WILL BE MORE CONFIDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ERIE
(ACROSS THE HILLS OF SW NYS)...THAN OFF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO A MORE
PRONOUNCE NW FLOW OVER LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL
STILL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...ONE THAT WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE WARMER LAKE WATERS...AND THE CONTINUED LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL MAKE BAND PLACEMENT MORE UNCERTAIN. IT COULD BE THE
LAKE SNOWS WILL HUG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINE BEFORE
RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY ALLOW THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WESTERLY FLOW TO CARRY THE SNOWS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
TUG HILL. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGHER POPS WEDNESDAY OFF LAKE
ERIE...THAN OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A DRY POLAR AIRMASS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS
OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP THROUGH THE -20S
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY MORNING 850 HPA DOWN TO
NEAR -26 TO -28C. THIS WILL BE A SOLID 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...GIVING CONFIDENCE THAT THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST MORNING OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR. IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS...WITH
SUBZERO READINGS OVER A BETTER PART OF OUR AREA INCLUDING ACROSS SW
NYS...SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY...WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINE...AND UNDER ANY LINGER
LAKE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS.

THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION...AND ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER TROUGHING NEAR THE WARM LAKE WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...CARRIED INLAND BY THE
LIGHT WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE "DRYNESS" OF THE POLAR AIRMASS.

FRIDAY ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. OUR FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE NOW RETREATING POLAR LOW. AIR TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND
AS SOME MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WE COULD SEE AN
UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES ON FRIDAY.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME PERIOD. THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL REACH ITS COLD PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY MODERATING BACK TO NORMAL AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND LOCAL IFR VSBY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT WILL END FIRST BY EARLY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT WILL
LINGER LONGER NEAR KFZY WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING AND ENDING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL IN MOST
AREAS AFTER ABOUT 09Z WHEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS DISSIPATE.

ON SATURDAY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS QUICKLY THICKENING AND LOWERING. EXPECT
PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE MORNING THEN
REACH KBUF-KROC BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIXED BAG WITH
MAINLY RAIN ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY INCLUDING
KROC...KIAG...AND KBUF. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF FZRA ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING KJHW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN BY
EARLY EVENING. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO PRECIP WILL START AS A FEW HOURS
OF SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL INITIALLY HELP TO
KEEP CIGS VFR ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...BUT SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO AT LEAST MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH RAIN DIMINISHING. STRONG
WINDS.
MONDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND IFR LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
TUESDAY...IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...MVFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS COMING TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...
BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GIVEN
THE OFFSHORE DIRECTION AND HIGHER WAVE ACTION WILL BE IN CANADIAN
WATERS.

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST NORTH OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS AN IDEAL TRACK FOR STRONG
WINDS ON THE LAKES. LATEST NAM/GFS FORECAST PROFILES SUPPORT A
DECENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES ON SUNDAY...AND WITH
THAT IN MIND WE HAVE RAISED A GALE WATCH.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ012>014-019>021-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
         FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

NYZ004-005-032030-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
321 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>003-010-011-032030-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
321 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ013-014-020-021-032030-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
321 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019-085-032030-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
321 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   HIGH WIND WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-032030-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
321 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-032030-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
321 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-032030-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
321 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK