Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING... AND MOVE INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND... AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING...
AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WARM FRONT ANALYZED ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
HAS BECOME NEARLY STALLED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. WARM AND MOIST
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
65-70+ DEGREE DEW POINT AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT IS ADVECTING
NORTHWARD BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
HOWEVER...ALONG THE AXIS OF LAKE ONTARIO... INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROMOTE A BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS
THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS...HOWEVER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED ENOUGH
THAT THE THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS LOW.

WITH THIS MUGGY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVERNIGHT... IT WON\T MAKE
FOR A COMFORTABLE WINDOWS-OPEN SLEEPING NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK... WITH
MOSTLY THE HIGHER HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY THE ONLY LOCATIONS CAPABLE
OF SEEING THE UPPER 60S TONIGHT.

A SUMMERY SATURDAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...INCLUDING THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS. WITH DEW POINTS
SURGING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 60S... NOT ONLY WILL IT BE A VERY
HUMID DAY... BUT ALSO SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. WOULDN\T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG MAKING IT
INTO DOWNTOWN BUFFALO AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

ABUNDANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN FOR THE MOST PART... AND WILL BE MOSTLY
LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS AND COULD CAUSE AREAS
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.75 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...VERY HUMID AIRMASS STILL EXPECTED TO WORK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS PUSHING INTO THE 70S WILL RISE
ABOVE LAKE WATER TEMPS WHICH SHOULD CREATE AREAS OF FOG ON LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...THE 18Z GFS IS SHOWING HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY INTO THE
MID-90S WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER THAT OUR CURRENT FORECAST. IF
FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS THEN WE MAY NEED TO
EDGE UP MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY A FEW MORE DEGREES WHICH COULD PUSH HEAT
INDEX/APPARENT TEMPERATURE VALUES ABOVE 100. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE NEED OF A HEAT ADVISORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WE WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST...MOST UNCOMFORTABLE WEATHER THUS FAR
THIS SUMMER SEASON AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE VERY SULTRY AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS OPPRESSIVE AIRMASS WILL INCLUDE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90...WILL PRODUCE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 100. THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ALSO
FUEL SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE DETAILS...

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY DIURNALLY TRIGGERED CONVECTION
FROM THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A WARM
AND MUGGY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS ONLY SETTLING INTO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...A
DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ADVECT H85 TEMPS OF 20C ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH
WILL EASILY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS. APPARENT TEMPS WILL APPROACH 100 ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE PLAINS BETWEEN BUFFALO
AND SYRACUSE. THIS WILL RAISE THE SPECTER OF A HEAT ADVISORY...BUT
AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE THE REQUIRED TWO HOUR MINIMUM STRETCH OF
100+ APPARENT TEMPS. STAY TUNED.

ALONG WITH BEING HOT AND QUITE HUMID ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE THE
RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE...OUR AIRMASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AS SBCAPES ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR 2000 J/KG. THIS BUOYANT AIRMASS WILL ONLY
NEED A TRIGGER...AND THAT COULD BE SUPPLIED BY A PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH/LAKE ERIE BOUNDARY...THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE SHEAR IN
THE AIRMASS THOUGH...AS A DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS ONLY EXPECTED
TO HAVE BULK SHEAR VALUES UNDER 25 KNOTS. THIS WOULD NOT RULE OUT
LOCALIZED RAIN LOADED DOWNBURSTS THOUGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS. PWAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF
1.75 INCHES...AS A PORTION OF THE AIRMASS WILL BE FED BY A TROPICAL
PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FROM THE REMNANTS OF WHAT SHOULD
BE POST-TROPICAL 'DOLORES' OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MBE VECTORS SUGGEST
SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
SO THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SLOW MOVING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE PACKAGE FOR THIS THREAT.

THE GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS
WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PRESS
THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
BASIN AVERAGE QPF IN THE VCNTY OF 0.50 TO .75 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH AWAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST MONDAY
MORNING WITH ANY LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS ENDING BY LUNCHTIME. THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING...
WITH SOMEWHAT MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. SINCE THERE IS LARGE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN
THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...
WILL KEEP POPS JUST BELOW SLGT CHC AND WORRY ABOUT FINE TUNING IN A
LATER PACKAGE. IN ANY CASE...TUESDAY WILL BE LARGELY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL FAVOR NEAR
NORMAL MID SUMMER TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF AT LEAST ONE WEAK COOL FRONT...MOISTURE SHOULD BE
LIMITED SO DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS WITH MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
LAKE ONTARIO...BUT A FEW COULD CLIP KIAG...KROC AND KART.

BY EARLY MORNING... WITH VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AREA STREAMING
INTO THE AREA... EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP... WITH IFR CIGS
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOME FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO... BUT THE INLAND
EXTENT OF THE FOG SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF THE TERMINALS.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AFTER 15Z SATURDAY WITH
HEATING OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF FLIGHT
REDUCTIONS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS. THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS WILL
ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE OPEN LAKES.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
BRINGING A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF  THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND WAVES 2 FEET OR
LESS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH/SMITH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH/TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/FRANKLIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1230 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-181630-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1230 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A VERY WARM AND SULTRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND VERY HUMID AIR ON
SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO 100 ACROSS A
LARGE PERCENTAGE OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. THESE VALUES WILL
APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. THE
GREATEST CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THOUGH MAY COME FROM SLOW MOVING
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-181630-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1230 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

RSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

NYZ002-003-011-180815-
ORLEANS-MONROE-GENESEE-
337 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GENESEE...MONROE AND
SOUTHERN ORLEANS COUNTIES...

AT 337 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF IRONDEQUOIT TO NEAR MEDINA...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCHESTER...GREECE...IRONDEQUOIT...CHILI...BATAVIA...BROCKPORT...EAST
ROCHESTER...HILTON...WEBSTER AND FAIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 390 NEAR EXIT 12.
 INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN EXITS 48 AND 46.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4314 7846 4333 7773 4331 7771 4323 7755
      4327 7742 4327 7738 4305 7739 4299 7784
      4299 7791 4298 7791 4291 7832
TIME...MOT...LOC 0737Z 321DEG 19KT 4334 7751 4314 7837

TMA