Flood Watch 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

933 
WGUS61 KBUF 261456
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1056 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF NEW YORK
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

AN UNUSUALLY WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL STALL OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS FALL LIKE FEATURE WILL GENERATE A SOAKING
RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF SUNDAY. THE STEADY RAIN...WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL
TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-262300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.150627T0900Z-150628T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1056 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... 
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE PERIOD OF
  HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE
  INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALIZED HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE OR MORE
  INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEW YORK.

* AREA TRIBUTARIES...INCLUDING THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...WILL 
  EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT RISES DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND 
  WITH THE SMALLER CREEKS HAVING THE GREATEST RISK OF RISING OUT 
  OF THEIR BANKS. LOW LYING AGRICULTURAL AREAS WILL LIKELY 
  EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING...WITH URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE 
  FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WELL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

CHURCH

594 
WGUS61 KBUF 262013
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
413 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF NEW YORK
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

AN UNUSUALLY WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL STALL OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS FALL LIKE FEATURE WILL GENERATE A SOAKING
RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE STEADY RAIN...WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...
WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-270415-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.150627T0900Z-150628T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
413 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... 
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE 
  INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALIZED HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE OR 
  MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEW YORK. 

* AREA TRIBUTARIES...INCLUDING THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...WILL 
  EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT RISES DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND 
  WITH THE SMALLER CREEKS HAVING THE GREATEST RISK OF RISING OUT 
  OF THEIR BANKS. LOW LYING AGRICULTURAL AREAS WILL LIKELY 
  EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING...WITH URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE 
  FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WELL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

879 
WGUS61 KBUF 270307
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1107 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF NEW YORK
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

AN UNUSUALLY WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL STALL OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS FALL
LIKE FEATURE WILL GENERATE A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE STEADY RAIN...WHICH
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES... WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-271115-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.150627T0900Z-150628T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1107 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... 
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE 
  INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALIZED HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE OR 
  MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEW YORK. 

* AREA TRIBUTARIES...INCLUDING THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...WILL 
  EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT RISES DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND 
  WITH THE SMALLER CREEKS HAVING THE GREATEST RISK OF RISING OUT 
  OF THEIR BANKS. LOW LYING AGRICULTURAL AREAS WILL LIKELY 
  EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING...WITH URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE 
  FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WELL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

SMITH

721 
WGUS61 KBUF 270830
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
430 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF NEW YORK
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

AN UNUSUALLY WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL STALL OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FALL LIKE
FEATURE WILL GENERATE A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE STEADY RAIN...WHICH WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT... WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-271630-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.150627T0900Z-150628T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
430 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... 
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE 
  INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALIZED HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE OR 
  MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK. 

* AREA TRIBUTARIES...INCLUDING THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...WILL 
  EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT RISES DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND 
  WITH THE SMALLER CREEKS HAVING THE GREATEST RISK OF RISING OUT 
  OF THEIR BANKS. LOW LYING AGRICULTURAL AREAS WILL LIKELY 
  EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING...WITH URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE 
  FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WELL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

JJR/RSH

362 
WGUS61 KBUF 271445
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1045 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF NEW YORK
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

AN UNUSUALLY WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL STALL OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FALL LIKE
FEATURE WILL GENERATE A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE STEADY RAIN...WHICH WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT... WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-272245-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-150628T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1045 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... 
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE 
  INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALIZED HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE OR 
  MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK. 

* AREA TRIBUTARIES...INCLUDING THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...WILL 
  EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT RISES DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND 
  WITH THE SMALLER CREEKS HAVING THE GREATEST RISK OF RISING OUT 
  OF THEIR BANKS. LOW LYING AGRICULTURAL AREAS WILL LIKELY 
  EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING...WITH URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE 
  FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WELL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

709 
WGUS61 KBUF 272212
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
612 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH BROUGHT
BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN. THIS IS LESS THAN
WHAT WAS FORECAST AND AS A RESULT THE RISK FOR FLOODING HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW
YORK AND THESE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING.

NYZ001-002-010>012-272315-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-150628T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW
612 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE A BIT LESS THAN EXPECTED...RESULTING
IN A DIMINISHED RISK FOR FLOODING.

$$

NYZ019>021-085-280615-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-150628T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
612 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN 
  ERIE. 

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN AN INCH AND A HALF AND TWO AND A HALF
  INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA. 

* SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING...AND COULD
  PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS
  RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLOODING
  WILL BE IN SMALLER CREEK BASINS...AND ACROSS LOW-LYING AND URBAN
  AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

APFFEL

638 
WGUS61 KBUF 280239
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1039 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN BROUGHT BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN TO
THE REGION. THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING HOWEVER ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT. HEAVIER
SHOWERS MAY STILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

NYZ019>021-085-281000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-150628T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1039 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN 
  ERIE. 

* UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN AN INCH AND A HALF AND TWO AND A HALF 
  INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA. 

* SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT AND THESE MAY
  PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS
  RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLOODING
  WILL BE IN SMALLER CREEK BASINS AND ACROSS LOW-LYING AND URBAN
  AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

APFFEL

760 
WGUS61 KBUF 280353
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1153 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NYZ019>021-085-280500-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-150628T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1153 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WHILE THE BULK OF WESTERN NEW YORK PICKED UP AN
INCH AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN SINCE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.

$$

RSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
212 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A NICE DAY ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS AN
UNUSUALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND PRODUCE A SOAKING RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT...SOME AREAS COULD PICK UP OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE REMAINING PRE DAWN HOURS...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH A NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR PCPN. OTHERWISE...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS
PARTIAL CLEARING IS FOUND IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE PRESENT AFTER DAYBREAK WILL ERODE WITH
DAYTIME MIXING. EXPECT A RETURN TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION.
IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS TO MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS WILL GO MARKEDLY DOWNHILL FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A BUILDING
WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN
STATES. THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH SETTING UP JUST TO OUR WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY. MEANWHILE ON ITS EASTERN FLANK...AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX SURFACE LOW SHOULD TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY MEANDERING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
COURSE OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN
EVOLVING IS EXTREMELY HIGH... THE GFS/EC/GEM ARE ALL WELL SUPPORTED
BY THERE ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

UNDER THIS REGIME...OUR WEATHER WILL TURN INCREASINGLY WET
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RESULTING LOWER/UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ACT TO PUMP INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE LIFT
GENERATED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING 45-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...AS WELL AS AN INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN FIRST
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT/VERY EARLY SATURDAY... BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION BETWEEN THE REST OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING WHILE
POSSIBLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING AND MOISTURE. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...THE AXIS OF THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE
SHIFTING EAST OF OUR REGION IN CONCERT WITH THE DEPARTING LOW
LEVEL JET...HOWEVER LIGHTER RAINS SHOULD STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE EFFECTS SET UP AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...AND AS THE CORE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION ALOFT. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS THAT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL NOT REALLY BEGIN
TO DROP OFF NOTICEABLY UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FINALLY
PROGGED TO PULL EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH THE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL... HAVE ADVERTISED 100 POPS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
DAYS...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN THE ADDITIONAL INFLUENCE OF A
GENERAL NORTHERLY/ NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE
CORE OF THE COOL POOL ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S...OR SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOR LATE JUNE.

IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS... THE 12Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1.5 INCHES WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NY. VIEWING
THE CIPS TIME-LAGGED GFS FORECAST AND ALSO BROWSING THE CIPS ANALOGS
OF A FEW SIMILAR EVENTS... GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT 2 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXCEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NY. THUS HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. OVERALL... DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC NATURE OF THE
RAINFALL DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER...SHOULD
LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEARING 3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ON SATURDAY
MATERIALIZE ACROSS WESTERN NY... SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS IN
WESTERN NY COULD PUSH ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGE. ENSEMBLE STREAM
FORECASTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL IS ONLY AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
PUSHING INTO ACTION OR MINOR STAGE. AT THIS POINT... WILL MENTION IN
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EVEN AFTER THE WEEKEND SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR OUR REGION WITH YET ANOTHER /ALBEIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE/ SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON OUR REGION AND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL GENERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THERE WILL BE A FEW NUISANCE SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH 09Z...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS IN MOST LOCATIONS AT 06Z
WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 09Z...WITH A SHORT PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KROC AND KJHW BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z.

ANY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT DAYBREAK WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND
JUST TO OUR NORTH. FAIR VFR WEATHER WILL BE FOUND OVER THE REGION
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UNUSUALLY WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL START TO SPREAD LOWER CIGS WITH RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WEST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO AT LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITHIN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY LIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES IN PLACE ON LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THESE FINE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND
THROUGH...AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL IN
THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES... BUT WILL PROMOTE FRESHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON (WRN LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE)...BUT MOST LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AREA WIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY TO FALL IN SOME OF OUR
BASINS OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND HOW QUICKLY
THIS FALLS...THIS COULD RESULT IN RIVER OR CREEK FLOODING.

THE PRIMARY DETERMINING FACTOR IS SIMPLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FALLS. IN GENERAL...SMALLER BASINS WILL BE MORE VULNERABLE SINCE
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED AND THUS LESS LIKELY TO
ALL FALL INTO A VERY LARGE BASIN. RIVER FLOODING DURING THE SUMMER
MONTHS IS NOT COMMON BUT IT CAN HAPPEN. BASED ON MMEFS ENSEMBLE
DATA AND IN HOUSE RIVER MODELING...MOST BASINS CAN PROBABLY
HANDLE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BUT THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL
INCREASE IF RAIN EXCEEDS 2 INCHES OR IF IT FALLS DURING A QUICKER
TIMEFRAME THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE
SOME LAKES TO RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

ALSO...HIGH WATER MAY HAVE A BIT MORE IMPACT ON
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND LAKES THIS TIME OF YEAR SINCE MANY CAMPS AND
CAMPGROUNDS ARE UNOCCUPIED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING MONTHS
WHEN FLOODING IS MORE COMMON. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN
THE QPF FORECAST...AND BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS DISCUSSED IN THE HWO PRODUCT BUT WATCHES
OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/JJR
LONG TERM...CHURCH/JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
410 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-262015-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
410 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE ANY FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD AND STEADY NATURE OF THE
RAINFALL... SHOULD LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN NY ON SATURDAY... SOME OF THE AREA CREEKS COULD APPROACH
ACTION TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
THIS WEEKEND FOR ANY UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-262015-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
410 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK NEAR THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. STRONG EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND WILL PUSH NEAR GALE FORCE. CURRENT
FORECAST SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS BECOME LIKELY ON
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
IN CASE FORECAST WIND SPEED INCREASE TO GALE LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF