Flash Flood Watch 8, NWS Buffalo, NY

349 
WGUS61 KBUF 191436
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...

.AN UNUSUALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIRECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED RAINFALL.

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-192245-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0008.150820T1200Z-150821T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
1036 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN 
  WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... 
  GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... 
  ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY 
  WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A SUB 
  TROPICAL AIRMASS. DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY 
  COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO 
  SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF PRODUCED BY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON 
  THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS 
  IN ADDITION TO POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY 
  AND GET TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD STORMS PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY 
  RAINFALL IN OR NEAR YOUR AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-192245-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0008.150820T1800Z-150821T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1036 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. 

* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO 
  REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS 
  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A SUB TROPICAL AIRMASS. 
  DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD TRAIN OVER THE 
  SAME AREAS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED 
  RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF PRODUCED BY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE 
  THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON SMALL 
  STREAMS AND CREEKS IN ADDITION TO POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BE 
  PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY AND GET TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD STORMS 
  PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN OR NEAR YOUR AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

&&

$$

969 
WGUS61 KBUF 191942
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
342 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...

.AN UNUSUALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIRECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED RAINFALL.

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-200345-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0008.150820T1200Z-150821T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
342 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN 
  WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... 
  GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... 
  ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY 
  WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A SUB 
  TROPICAL AIRMASS. DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY 
  COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO 
  SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF PRODUCED BY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON 
  THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS 
  IN ADDITION TO POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY 
  AND GET TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD STORMS PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY 
  RAINFALL IN OR NEAR YOUR AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-200345-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0008.150820T1800Z-150821T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
342 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. 

* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO 
  REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS 
  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A SUB TROPICAL AIRMASS. 
  DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD TRAIN OVER THE 
  SAME AREAS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED 
  RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF PRODUCED BY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE 
  THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON SMALL 
  STREAMS AND CREEKS IN ADDITION TO POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BE 
  PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY AND GET TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD STORMS 
  PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN OR NEAR YOUR AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

&&

$$

757 
WGUS61 KBUF 200253
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1053 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...

.AN UNUSUALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIRECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED RAINFALL.

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-201100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0008.150820T1200Z-150821T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
1053 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN 
  WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... 
  GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... 
  ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY 
  WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A SUB 
  TROPICAL AIRMASS. DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY 
  COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO 
  SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF PRODUCED BY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON
  THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS
  IN ADDITION TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BE PREPARED TO
  ACT QUICKLY AND GET TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD STORMS PRODUCE
  PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN OR NEAR YOUR AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-201100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0008.150820T1800Z-150821T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1053 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. 

* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO 
  REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS 
  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A SUB TROPICAL AIRMASS. 
  DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD TRAIN OVER THE 
  SAME AREAS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED 
  RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF PRODUCED BY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE 
  THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON SMALL 
  STREAMS AND CREEKS IN ADDITION TO POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BE 
  PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY AND GET TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD STORMS 
  PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN OR NEAR YOUR AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

&&

$$

621 
WGUS61 KBUF 200855
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
455 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT FOR WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...

.AN  STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
WARM AND MOIST GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WHICH MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED FLOODING.

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-201700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0008.150820T1200Z-150821T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
455 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* WESTERN NEW YORK

* FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN NEW YORK WILL RESULT
  IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH
  THIS ACTIVITY COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...POSSIBLY LEADING
  TO SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF PRODUCED BY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON TODAY MAY
  RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS IN ADDITION TO
  URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY AND
  GET TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD STORMS PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY
  RAINFALL IN OR NEAR YOUR AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-201700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0008.150820T1800Z-150821T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
455 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

* FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN NEW YORK WILL RESULT
  IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
  DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD TRAIN OVER THE
  SAME AREAS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED RAINFALL
  AMOUNTS.

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF PRODUCED BY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE 
  THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON SMALL 
  STREAMS AND CREEKS IN ADDITION TO POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BE 
  PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY AND GET TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD STORMS 
  PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN OR NEAR YOUR AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

&&

$$

APFFEL

266 
WGUS61 KBUF 201633
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1233 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT FOR WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL BRING
WARM AND MOIST GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED FLOODING.

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-210045-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-150821T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
1233 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN 
  WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... 
  GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... 
  ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN NEW YORK WILL RESULT 
  IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH 
  THIS ACTIVITY COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...POSSIBLY 
  LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF PRODUCED BY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON TODAY 
  MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS IN 
  ADDITION TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BE PREPARED TO ACT 
  QUICKLY AND GET TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD STORMS PRODUCE 
  PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN OR NEAR YOUR AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-210045-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0008.150820T1800Z-150821T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1233 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. 

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN NEW YORK WILL RESULT 
  IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. 
  DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD TRAIN OVER THE 
  SAME AREAS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED 
  RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF PRODUCED BY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE 
  THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON SMALL 
  STREAMS AND CREEKS IN ADDITION TO POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BE 
  PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY AND GET TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD STORMS 
  PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN OR NEAR YOUR AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

&&

$$

519 
WGUS61 KBUF 201924
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
324 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT FOR WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL BRING
WARM AND MOIST GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WHICH MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED FLOODING.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-202030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-150821T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
324 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE COLD FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA.

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-210300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-150821T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
324 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN 
  WESTERN NEW YORK...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO AND WAYNE. 

* UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN NEW YORK WILL RESULT
  IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
  SUCCESSIVE DOWNPOURS ALONG THE FRONT COULD MOVE OVER THE SAME
  AREAS...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF PRODUCED BY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ON TODAY 
  MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS IN 
  ADDITION TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BE PREPARED TO ACT 
  QUICKLY AND GET TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD STORMS PRODUCE 
  PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN OR NEAR YOUR AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-210330-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-150821T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
324 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. 

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN NEW YORK WILL RESULT
  IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
  SUCCESSIVE DOWNPOURS ALONG THE FRONT COULD MOVE OVER THE SAME
  AREAS...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

* EXCESSIVE RUNOFF PRODUCED BY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE 
  THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON SMALL 
  STREAMS AND CREEKS IN ADDITION TO POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BE 
  PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY AND GET TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD STORMS 
  PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN OR NEAR YOUR AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

&&

$$

841 
WGUS61 KBUF 202345
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
745 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

NYZ006>008-210045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-150821T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
745 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. RAINFALL RATES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AND
EVEN THOUGH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 HOURS...THEY SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING.

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-210045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-150821T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
745 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
YORK HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAINFALL HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE
AREA AND FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER A THREAT.

$$

WOOD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
210 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ON THURSDAY A
STRONG...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT BRINGING SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR ROCHESTER EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE ONTARIO. ONCE THIS LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS DIMINISHES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IT WILL QUIET DOWN TO A DRY AND HUMID
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. URBAN PORTIONS
OF THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METROS MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO DIP BELOW
70.

MUGGINESS WILL PERSIST LATER TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP MOST ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY VERY LIMITED. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC
FORCING...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZE
INDUCED AND CONFINED TO NEAR THE LAKES AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN INTO THE MID 80S WITH
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL MAKE
THIS FEEL QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE INDEED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST 24 HOURS
OF THIS PERIOD WILL NO DOUBT BE HUMID AND QUITE WARM. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH ARE VERY WARM FOR EVEN LATE AUGUST STANDARDS. A COLD
FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE AS THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR CWA.

ALOFT THURSDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DEEPENING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOME 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A READING OF SUB 995 MB. NOW THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS JAMES BAY...BUT IN DOING SO THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE COURSE OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND THEIR TIMING OF THE
FRONT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE 12Z SUITE OF NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
AND 00Z ECMWF MODELS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF THE SLOWER
MODELS (THAT BEING ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS). THIS
CONSENSUS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THE WARMER LAKE WATERS
MAY SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

THIS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...WITH THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE INSTABILITY
TO BUILD. MODEST SBCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES NEARING 30 KNOTS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESIDE. THE BIGGER
CONCERN AT THIS TIME THOUGH IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE
ATMOSPHERE.

A VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO AN ALREADY MOISTURE LADEN
WEATHER SYSTEM. OUR PWAT VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH
IS SOME 2 TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF STORMS WILL THE SLOW
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH WILL HEIGHTEN THE RISK OF FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS FLASH FLOOD RISK WITHIN THE HWO PRODUCT.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT STORMS
WILL END FORM WEST TO EAST. A WET GROUND AND STILL MODEST DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG WITHIN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH THE
WARMEST AREAS TOWARDS THE EAST WHERE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE IS
POSSIBLE. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL START
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENT...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE
HUMIDITY DEPARTMENT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL HAVE JUST
COMPLETED ITS TRACK ACROSS THE BUFFALO CWA. THERE MAY BE A FEW
TRAILING SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...OTHERWISE A PERIOD
OF DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL TAKE HOLD.

ALOFT THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE A FLAT ZONAL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE
WILL BE DEVELOPED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/PV INTRUSION THAT WILL BE
ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. PWATS WILL FALL FROM AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY DOWN TOWARDS
HALF AN INCH TO START THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
REFLECT THE DRYING LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITH DEWPOINTS GOING INTO
SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE FED BY MOISTURE ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT COMING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE AND HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

GLOBAL MODELS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THE UPSTREAM PV INTRUSION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
DEEPEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY. AGAIN
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS CLIMB
TOWARDS 2 INCHES.

FROM HERE THERE WILL BE DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS FAR NORTHWARD WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND SURFACE REFLECTED LOW AS THE GFS. WHERE THE
GFS BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION WITH CHANCES FOR INSTABILITY
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY UNTIL
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL WITH NO EXTREME'S IN THE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z SOME LINGERING -SHRA NEAR KROC WILL LIFT NORTH AND DIMINISH
EARLY THIS MORNING. RECENT RAINFALL AND SOME CLEAR BREAKS SHIFTING
OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR IFR CIGS AT KJHW FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
AND MVFR/IFR VIS AT KART AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NARROW.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER SUNRISE TODAY. A WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WITHOUT A DEFINITIVE
TRIGGER TO FOCUS CONVECTION...ANY ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON AND THUS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE FOUND CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ANY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
PINNED NEAR THE LAKESHORES. VFR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
LOWERING CIGS AND STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIFT NORTH WHILE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BECOME POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES... HOWEVER WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
110 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-200515-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
110 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING STORMS TRACKING
OVER THE SAME AREAS POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME FLASH FLOODING. THIS
RISK COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH...OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA...TO WARRANT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-200515-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
110 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1025 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E CATO                43.16N  76.48W
08/18/2015                   CAYUGA             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREES ON REC VEHICLES...OTHER REC VEHICLES BLOWN OVER
            AT CROSSLAKE PARK

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1500348

ZAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE WEBSTER           43.24N  77.37W
08/18/2015                   WAYNE              NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ESTIMATED 12 TREES DOWN NEAR BERG/COUNTY LINE RDS...ONE
            ON HOME

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1500349

ZAFF