Special Weather Statement, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1259 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST /18Z/ AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH EVENT UNFOLDING RAPIDLY HAD TO PUSH UP TIMING OF
MANY ITEMS...MAINLY RAIN BANDING RAIN ENDING AND MOST IMPORTANTLY
SHARP WIND SHIFT.

FRONT IS SLICING INTO THE RANCHLANDS AS I WRITE /1750Z/ AND SHOULD
SURGE INTO THE KMFE AREA AS EARLY AS 4 PM /21Z/...PASSING KBRO BY
6 PM /23Z/ AND BEING WELL OFF THE COAST BY MID EVENING. THE BIG
QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL THE WIND SURGE BE? SURGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY HAS BEEN AS STRONG AS 49 KNOTS AT LAREDO
AND 40 KNOTS AT COTULLA...BUT SO FAR ONLY 17 KNOTS AT ZAPATA.
USING PAST EVENTS AS A GUIDE...SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS
IS MOST LIKELY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS SO HAVE GONE WITH THIS FOR
GUSTS. WILL LIKELY NEED AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS FOR THE SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE BEFORE 3 PM.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT STIFF NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 18 TO
30 KNOTS RANGE INCLUDING GUSTS...AND CEILINGS SHOULD FALL TO
EITHER LOW MVFR OR HIGH IFR OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR HELPS LOCK
DOWN A SOLID STRATUS DECK INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MIXING HAVE
RAISED CEILINGS AFTER 15Z...BUT STILL IN MVFR RANGE.

AS FOR VISIBILITY...ONLY TEMPO FOR PERIODS OF 1-2 MILES IN HEAVY
RAIN WITH BANDS BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES A QUICK RISE TO
4...THAN MORE THAN 6 MILES AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY.
52/BSG

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
535 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXZ248>257-242100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
535 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT THE LOCAL BEACHES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE NEXT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-242100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
535 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
LOWER TEXAS BAY AND GULF WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
115 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXZ249-250-241900-
JIM HOGG TX-BROOKS TX-
115 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ZAPATA...NORTHERN
BROOKS AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 114 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BEN BOLT TO 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF THOMPSONVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FALFURRIAS...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS FIRE STATION...GRUY STADIUM...
FALFURRIAS JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL...LAS LOMITAS...AIRPORT ROAD
ADDITION...SOUTH FORK ESTATES...RANDADO AND THOMPSONVILLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2734 9855 2734 9852 2727 9852 2726 9799
      2718 9799 2689 9877 2710 9895 2727 9896
      2727 9880 2735 9879 2736 9863 2734 9862
      2734 9859 2736 9859 2736 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 314DEG 27KT 2765 9805 2730 9902

54

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
215 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXZ251-254-242015-
INLAND WILLACY TX-KENEDY TX-
215 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KENEDY...EASTERN
HIDALGO AND NORTHWESTERN WILLACY COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 214 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
YTURRIA...OR NEAR RAYMONDVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IN
ADDITION...RADAR IS DETECTING WEAK CIRCULATION 2 MILES WEST OF
HIGHWAY 77 IN WILLACY COUNTY. A FUNNEL CLOUD OR BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RAYMONDVILLE...LYFORD...LASARA...RUDOLPH...YTURRIA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2639 9780 2641 9786 2643 9786 2643 9791
      2644 9794 2677 9787 2668 9762
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 202DEG 8KT 2655 9785

BIRCHFIELD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
220 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXZ249>253-242015-
KENEDY TX-JIM HOGG TX-HIDALGO TX-BROOKS TX-STARR TX-
220 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STARR...NORTHWESTERN KENEDY...
SOUTHEASTERN ZAPATA...BROOKS...NORTHWESTERN HIDALGO AND SOUTHEASTERN
JIM HOGG COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 218 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR NAVAL AIR STATION
CABANISS FIELD TO FALCON HEIGHTS...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...FALFURRIAS...ARMSTRONG...ESCOBARES...
GARCIASVILLE...EL SAUZ...LA ROSITA...RACHAL AND MCCOOK.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2723 9755 2728 9735 2720 9737 2719 9738
      2724 9737 2725 9742 2721 9739 2722 9743
      2714 9745 2626 9868 2637 9880 2643 9911
      2657 9917 2726 9821 2726 9799 2721 9797
      2728 9779
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 335DEG 20KT 2772 9746 2656 9910

54

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
220 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXZ253-255-242015-
INLAND CAMERON TX-HIDALGO TX-
220 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HIDALGO...
SOUTHWESTERN WILLACY AND NORTHWESTERN CAMERON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
CDT...

AT 218 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
RATAMOSA...OR NEAR LA FERIA...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IN
ADDITION...RADAR IS DETECTING WEAK ROTATION ALONG HIGHWAY 83 NEAR LA
FERIA. A FUNNEL CLOUD OR WEAK TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE STORM
INTENSIFIES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARLINGEN...MERCEDES...LA FERIA...SANTA ROSA...LA VILLA...PALM
VALLEY...PRIMERA...COMBES...LLANO GRANDE COUNTRY CLUB AND TIERRA
BONITA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2614 9798 2637 9791 2636 9786 2635 9786
      2631 9762 2612 9784
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 198DEG 13KT 2619 9786

BIRCHFIELD