Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
348 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...FLOODING RAINS ENDING THIS EVENING THEN WINDY AND DRYING OUT
SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST WORKING OUT
FAIRLY WELL SINCE LAST UPDATE...AS SYSTEMS COALESCING INTO THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL BANDS WHICH HAVE FLOODED WESLACO WITH 3 FEET OF
INUNDATION FROM SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN...AND SOON TO FLOOD WILLACY
WITH SEVERAL FEET OF INUNDATION ON TOP OF ALL THE RAIN THEY HAD ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE GOOD NEWS? FRONT...WIND SHIFT WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...
IS RACING SOUTHEAST AND WILL CROSS THE COAST BY 6 PM THIS EVENING
REMOVING THE LAST OF THE "SPINNING" CELLS THAT HAVE COME CLOSE TO
REACHING TORNADO POTENTIAL BUT FELL JUST SHORT EACH TIME.

SO...THE FORECAST BECOMES STRAIGHTFORWARD: THE FRONT PASSES AND
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES FOR TWO HOURS HENCE...
FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER RAINS/SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE MORE OF A DRIZZLE/SPRINKLE CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS EVEN AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS DRY OUT.

THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO QUICKLY SCOOT HIGHER CHANCES OFFSHORE AND
END ALTOGETHER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL
RETURN AFTER NOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID/UPPER VALLEY THROUGH THE
RANCHLANDS.  ALSO MADE A NUMBER OF HAND-EDITS TO TEMPERATURES BASED
ON CRASHING READINGS INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DROP A LITTLE MORE TOWARD DAYBREAK.  KEPT
READINGS DOWN A TAD SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO CLOUD COVER...THEN EDGED
THROUGH THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR WINDS...HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD ADVISORY DECISION FOR LATER THIS
EVENING AS VISCOUS AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS...AS WELL AS NIGHTTIME
WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE CRITERIA ABOVE THE DECK...MAKES ME HESISTANT
TO PULL TRIGGER AT THIS POINT.  THAT COULD CHANGE FOR SUNDAY FOR
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH INCREASED MIXING AS CLOUDS LIFT AND HEATING
BEGINS.

CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS OVER LAND SET THE STAGE FOR
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LOW TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING...AND
SEVERAL DAYS OF CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER TO FOLLOW.

FINALLY...NO CHANGE TO FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO
TRIM FURTHER WITH BULK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION LONG GONE BY MIDNIGHT
AND CERTAINLY BEFORE 7 AM.

&&

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FROM WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM THE 500 MB LOW/SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF IS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF THE SURFACE LOW. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A GFS/ECWMF BLEND FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LOUISIANA. ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AS
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A 500MB
LOW/TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BIG STORY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A GALE AS THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY WINDS UP ALONG THE COASTAL BEND.
SLIGHTLY UPPED THE WIND FORECAST FOR ALL WATERS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
SO WILL CONVERT GALE WATCH TO WARNING BEGINNING AT 7 AM. THIS
TIMING MAY NEED TO START EARLIER PENDING IF THE POST- FRONTAL
SURGE KEEPS GOING OR IS VERY SHORT LIVED BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS
SET UP AND MIX DOWN FROM THE 925-850 MB LAYER.

WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MORE QUICKLY
OVER THE LAGUNA WHERE CONDITIONS WILL REVERT TO SMALL CRAFT...20 TO
25 KNOTS...SUNDAY LATE AND BELOW THAT OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS SUNDAY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...OR POSSIBLE GALE WARNINGS...WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  67  77  63  78 /  90  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          67  78  61  79 /  90  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            67  78  61  80 /  90  20  10  10
MCALLEN              67  78  61  80 /  90  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      66  77  58  80 /  70  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  77  69  77 /  90  30  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/54

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
535 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXZ248>257-242100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
535 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT THE LOCAL BEACHES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE NEXT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-242100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
535 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
LOWER TEXAS BAY AND GULF WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
354 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WESLACO                 26.16N  97.98W
10/24/2015                   HIDALGO            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KRGV REPORTED FLOOD WATERS AT ACCESS ROAD BEFORE
            INTERNATIONAL BLVD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BRO1500149

RJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
448 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RAYMONDVILLE            26.48N  97.78W
10/24/2015                   WILLACY            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WILLACY COUNTY EM REPORTED FLASH FLOOD. EVACUATION OF 3
            PEOPLE BY BOAT AT FM 1650 AND FM 1450

&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION...REMARKS...SOURCE

EVENT NUMBER BRO1500148

BIRCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
452 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RAYMONDVILLE            26.48N  97.78W
10/24/2015                   WILLACY            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROUTE 186 OR HIDALGO AVENUE IN DOWNTOWN RAYMONDVILLE
            WAS SHUT DOWN FROM KING STREET TO 15TH STREET DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BRO1500150

BIRCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
534 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 17 N PORT MANSFIELD     26.80N  97.47W
10/24/2015  M39 MPH          GMZ135             TX   C-MAN STATION

            RINCON DEL SAN JOSE TCOON SITE REPORTED A MEASURED WIND
            GUST OF 34 KNOTS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BRO1500151

EB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
552 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     FLOOD            BROWNSVILLE             25.93N  97.48W
10/24/2015                   CAMERON            TX   CITY OFFICIAL

            MINOR FLOODING REPORTED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON BOCA
            CHICA AS WELL AS ON FM803.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BRO1500152

CASTILLO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
607 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE WESLACO            26.17N  97.97W
10/24/2015  M9.57 INCH       HIDALGO            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KRGV 5 REPORTED A TOTAL OF 9.57 INCHES OF RAINFALL SO
            FAR TODAY IN WESLACO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BRO1500153

BIRCHFIELD