Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION OF NORTH ALABAMA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY
CAUSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY.
SOME ORGANIZATION OR GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD EXCEED 105 DEGREES DUE TO DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER
70S ACROSS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING.

THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES...AS HIGH
AS 2.3 INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SURPRISINGLY...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE QPF
FROM SEVERAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY EXIT THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BASED ON HIRES MODELS BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A BIT
LESS COVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST AS COMPARED TO OTHER AREAS SO HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ANB/ASN FOR NOW.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO AMEND IF COVERAGE INCREASES.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIRES MODELS ALSO SHOW MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
THRU THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. THEREFORE HAVE
BEST CHANCE OF TS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND TS
MENTION A BIT LONGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  92  71  91  67 /  30  40  20  10  10
ANNISTON    75  93  73  91  69 /  30  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  93  72  92  69 /  30  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  75  95  74  94  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
CALERA      75  93  72  92  70 /  30  50  20  10  10
AUBURN      75  92  74  90  72 /  30  60  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  93  73 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        75  94  75  91  73 /  30  60  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-
PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
238 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-302245-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
238 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
154 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALZ011-291930-
MARION AL-
154 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

AT 153 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PHIL CAMPBELL...OR NEAR HALEYVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAMILTON...HALEYVILLE...HACKLEBURG...BRILLIANT...BRINN...LAKE
BUTTAHATCHEE...BEAR CREEK...PIGEYE...PINEY GROVE...UPPER BEAR CREEK
RESERVOIR...PEARCES MILL AND TESSNER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8763 3400 8764 3401 8793 3431 8795
      3431 8792
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 345DEG 14KT 3427 8772

32/DAVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
159 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALZ049-291930-
PIKE AL-
159 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PIKE COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 159 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR PETREY TO NEAR
BANKS...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TROY...BRUNDIDGE...GOSHEN...BANKS...ANSLEY...TROY MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT...TROY UNIVERSITY...LINWOOD...ANTIOCH...BRUNDIDGE MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT...MOSSY GROVE...JOSIE...TENNILLE...HENDERSON...TARENTUM...
MONTICELLO...SANDFIELD AND HAMILTON CROSSROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8618 3166 8615 3179 8615 3179 8620
      3189 8617 3197 8580 3188 8579 3188 8568
      3186 8567 3185 8568 3178 8566 3176 8567
      3174 8570 3171 8571 3169 8572 3165 8572
      3162 8574
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 341DEG 27KT 3179 8616 3184 8577

32/DAVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
228 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALZ011>013-292015-
MARION AL-LAMAR AL-FAYETTE AL-
228 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAMAR...SOUTHWESTERN MARION AND
WESTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 228 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF DETROIT TO
NEAR BLUFF...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINFIELD...FAYETTE...VERNON...SULLIGENT...MILLPORT...GUIN...
KENNEDY...DETROIT...BELK...BEAVERTON...GU-WIN...BLOOMING GROVE...
CREWS...LAMAR COUNTY AIRPORT...ASHCRAFT CORNER...BLUFF...BEDFORD...
GATTMAN...WAYSIDE AND LAMAR COUNTY PUBLIC LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3419 8819 3393 8783 3353 8786 3352 8798
      3368 8826
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 012DEG 20KT 3411 8818 3388 8791

32/DAVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
235 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALZ024-025-292000-
JEFFERSON AL-SHELBY AL-
235 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND SHELBY
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 234 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BIRMINGHAM TO NEAR
VANDIVER...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...VESTAVIA HILLS...ALABASTER...BESSEMER...
HOMEWOOD...PELHAM...MOUNTAIN BROOK...HELENA...HUEYTOWN...IRONDALE...
LEEDS...CALERA...FAIRFIELD...CHELSEA...FULTONDALE...COLUMBIANA...
WILSONVILLE...TARRANT AND MIDFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3357 8655 3355 8652 3355 8648 3350 8648
      3350 8638 3324 8644 3324 8645 3323 8647
      3320 8646 3320 8649 3318 8650 3313 8647
      3312 8647 3309 8651 3307 8651 3306 8652
      3304 8652 3327 8707 3363 8687
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 023DEG 30KT 3348 8688 3343 8647

32/DAVIS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
311 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALZ034-035-292100-
CHILTON AL-BIBB AL-
311 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BIBB AND WESTERN CHILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 311 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
AMERICAN VILLAGE...OR NEAR MONTEVALLO...MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALERA...BRENT...CENTREVILLE...JEMISON...THORSBY...WEST BLOCTON...
CHILTON COUNTY MOTOR SPORTS PARK...BRIERFIELD IRONWORKS PARK...
TALLADEGA NATIONAL FOREST...ASHBY...LAWLEY...EOLINE...RANDOLPH...
ISABELLA...HEBRON...BIBB COUNTY AIRPORT...SIX MILE...TRIO...CAMPBELL
AND MARVEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3301 8725 3324 8703 3321 8702 3317 8703
      3316 8697 3310 8697 3310 8695 3308 8695
      3308 8694 3306 8693 3306 8690 3305 8690
      3305 8688 3307 8688 3307 8662 3274 8675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 011DEG 31KT 3314 8682

32/DAVIS