Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION OF NORTH ALABAMA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY
CAUSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY.
SOME ORGANIZATION OR GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY SINCE HEAT INDICES
SHOULD EXCEED 105 DEGREES DUE TO DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER
70S ACROSS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING.

THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES...AS HIGH
AS 2.3 INCHES...WILL BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SURPRISINGLY...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE QPF
FROM SEVERAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST
REASONABLE SOLUTION.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY EXIT THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BASED ON HIRES MODELS BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A BIT
LESS COVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST AS COMPARED TO OTHER AREAS SO HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ANB/ASN FOR NOW.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO AMEND IF COVERAGE INCREASES.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIRES MODELS ALSO SHOW MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
THRU THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. THEREFORE HAVE
BEST CHANCE OF TS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND TS
MENTION A BIT LONGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  92  71  91  67 /  30  40  20  10  10
ANNISTON    75  93  73  91  69 /  30  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  93  72  92  69 /  30  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  75  95  74  94  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
CALERA      75  93  72  92  70 /  30  50  20  10  10
AUBURN      75  92  74  90  72 /  30  60  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  93  73 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        75  94  75  91  73 /  30  60  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-
PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
420 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-301230-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
420 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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