Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
302 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES...BOTH SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE...MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA OR IN THE VICINITY. NOT TO
MENTION THERE IS AT LEAST ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL
TRAVERSE THE AREA AS WELL. THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
MICROBURSTS WITH TODAYS STORMS. IN FACT...WE'VE ALREADY OBSERVED A
COUPLE MICROBURST SIGNATURES ON RADAR...ONE NEAR JEFFERSON/SHELBY
LINE AND ANOTHER IN FAR SW BARBOUR COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENING WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE IMPULSES TO TRACK SE ACROSS THE
AREA...NOT TO MENTION THE NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. WITH
BULK SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES STILL SUPPORTIVE OF AT
LEAST A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SEVERE
IN THE HWO FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE HEAT WILL BACK DOWN EVER
SO SLIGHTLY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL RATHER
MISERABLE OUT THERE. NO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
PRACTICING GOOD HEAT SAFETY IS STILL ADVISABLE REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS ISSUED.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE
WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST. E/SE
SFC FLOW DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE VERY LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO BY MID/LATE
WEEK. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER...LOOK FOR MORE INT THE WAY OF
CONVECTION. TRIED TO TIME OUT THE BEST TIMEFRAME THIS AFTERNOON
FOR TEMPO CONDITIONS AT EACH SITES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND
HRRR. NORTH AND WEST EARLIEST AND SOUTH AND EAST LATEST. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...BUT ONLY HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE UP TO 6Z. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 15Z ON THURSDAY.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT INDICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  89  73  92  72 /  40  60  40  40  20
ANNISTON    73  88  72  91  72 /  40  60  40  50  20
BIRMINGHAM  75  90  76  92  74 /  40  60  40  50  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  93  75  94  75 /  50  60  40  50  30
CALERA      74  89  75  91  73 /  50  60  40  50  20
AUBURN      74  90  74  90  73 /  50  60  40  50  30
MONTGOMERY  75  93  77  94  75 /  40  60  40  50  30
TROY        74  93  75  94  74 /  30  60  30  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BULLOCK-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
529 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-231330-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
529 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 60MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORM THAT DEVELOPS. DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT.

CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDICES TO REACH NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BOTH ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS UP TO 60MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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