Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1237 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN IMPACTS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE NUMEROUS
OUTFLOWS THAT ARE ACROSS THE AREA OR JUST TO THE NORTH. THE
LARGEST OUTFLOW CURRENTLY LIES RIGHT ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD BE THE MAIN AREA OF DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S IN THIS AREA. SEVERAL
OTHER OUTFLOWS ARE MOVING INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST AS WELL. RAISED POPS IN THESE TWO
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDED FOCUS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY HOW MUCH COVERAGE THERE
WILL BE AS IT REALLY WILL DEPEND ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO OVERNIGHT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION GOING UP THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER...LOOK FOR MORE INT THE WAY OF
CONVECTION. TRIED TO TIME OUT THE BEST TIMEFRAME THIS AFTERNOON
FOR TEMPO CONDITIONS AT EACH SITES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND
HRRR. NORTH AND WEST EARLIEST AND SOUTH AND EAST LATEST. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...BUT ONLY HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE UP TO 6Z. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 15Z ON THURSDAY.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT INDICES.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BULLOCK-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
529 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-231330-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
529 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 60MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORM THAT DEVELOPS. DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT.

CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDICES TO REACH NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BOTH ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS UP TO 60MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
115 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

ALZ024-025-221900-
JEFFERSON AL-SHELBY AL-
115 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 115 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BESSEMER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHWESTERN BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...VESTAVIA HILLS...ALABASTER...
BESSEMER...HOMEWOOD...PELHAM...HELENA...HUEYTOWN...CALERA...
FAIRFIELD...CHELSEA...MONTEVALLO...PLEASANT GROVE...MIDFIELD...
BRIGHTON...INDIAN SPRINGS VILLAGE...LIPSCOMB...SPLASH ADVENTURE AND
ROSS BRIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3335 8655 3309 8675 3324 8703 3325 8703
      3325 8705 3326 8707 3328 8707 3328 8709
      3329 8709 3329 8712 3349 8696
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 296DEG 16KT 3336 8694

32/DAVIS