Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED TO NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA...CALERA...ASHLAND LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO MAINLY MARION AND
WINSTON COUNTIES...WITH 2 T 4 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 2-2.5 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND BELIEVE THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE TROF AXIS FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF ALABAMA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER AND LESS CONVECTIVE NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-35 PERCENT
RANGE FOR NOW...BUT COULD REDUCE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE
GFS TRENDS DRIER.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL POSE A
THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE FROM TCL TO EET BUT OTHER STORMS
ARE NOTED BACK INTO MISSISSIPPI. ALSO WATCHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING TOWARDS MGM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN SHORT...POTENTIAL
IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THIS EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
554 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             CENTREVILLE             32.97N 87.13W
07/03/2015  U1.50 INCH       BIBB               AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE HAIL REPORTED IN AND AROUND CENTREVILLE WITH SOME
            DAMAGE. TREES ALSO REPORTED DOWN NEAR BRENT.

0540 PM     HAIL             JEMISON                 32.96N 86.75W
07/03/2015  M1.00 INCH       CHILTON            AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS CALLS AND REPORTS FROM THE JEMISON AREA OF 1
            INCH HAIL...MIXED WITH LARGER STONES

&&

KLAWS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ALZ040-042-040000-
DALLAS AL-LOWNDES AL-
632 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOWNDES COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 632 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTH OF BELKNAP...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOSSES...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOSSES...WHITE HALL...GORDONVILLE...BEECHWOOD...MINTER...COLLIRENE...
CARLOWVILLE...MOUNT WILLING...FOSTORIA AND FARMERSVILLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3205 8686 3205 8705 3210 8708 3229 8673
      3205 8660 3198 8686
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 244DEG 21KT 3206 8696

17/KLAWS