Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED TO NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA...CALERA...ASHLAND LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO MAINLY MARION AND
WINSTON COUNTIES...WITH 2 T 4 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 2-2.5 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND BELIEVE THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE TROF AXIS FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF ALABAMA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER AND LESS CONVECTIVE NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-35 PERCENT
RANGE FOR NOW...BUT COULD REDUCE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE
GFS TRENDS DRIER.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL POSE A
THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE FROM TCL TO EET BUT OTHER STORMS
ARE NOTED BACK INTO MISSISSIPPI. ALSO WATCHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING TOWARDS MGM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN SHORT...POTENTIAL
IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THIS EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1110 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-041915-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1110 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ANY STORMS THAT
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A MILLPORT...TO WARRIOR...TO JACKSONVILLE
LINE THROUGH 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ALZ040-042-040000-
DALLAS AL-LOWNDES AL-
632 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOWNDES COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 632 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTH OF BELKNAP...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOSSES...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOSSES...WHITE HALL...GORDONVILLE...BEECHWOOD...MINTER...COLLIRENE...
CARLOWVILLE...MOUNT WILLING...FOSTORIA AND FARMERSVILLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3205 8686 3205 8705 3210 8708 3229 8673
      3205 8660 3198 8686
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 244DEG 21KT 3206 8696

17/KLAWS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
721 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ALZ041-042-044-040115-
MONTGOMERY AL-AUTAUGA AL-LOWNDES AL-
721 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND
NORTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 721 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LOWNDESBORO...OR NEAR HAYNEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONTGOMERY...PRATTVILLE...HAYNEVILLE...PIKE ROAD...COOSADA...
LOWNDESBORO...MOUNT MEIGS...CANTELOUS...DANNELLY FIELD...AUBURN
UNIVERSITY IN MONTGOMERY...BOYLSTON...WAUGH...ALABAMA STATE
UNIVERSITY...WOODCREST...BOB WOODRUFF LAKE...GUNTER AIR FORCE BASE...
SNOWDOUN...LAGOON PARK...EASTDALE MALL AND HOPE HULL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3232 8668 3246 8641 3241 8641 3243 8640
      3243 8635 3241 8631 3244 8632 3249 8631
      3247 8629 3250 8625 3245 8618 3243 8619
      3243 8613 3242 8612 3241 8605 3242 8603
      3234 8599 3232 8596 3230 8596 3215 8658
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 241DEG 30KT 3228 8655

17/KLAWS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
745 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ALZ031-040130-
GREENE AL-
745 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GREENE COUNTY UNTIL 830
PM CDT...

AT 744 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NEW WEST GREENE...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF ALICEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EUTAW...UNION...NEW WEST GREENE...MANTUA...KNOXVILLE...WEST GREENE...
CLINTON...I 20 REST AREA NEAR EUTAW...LEWISTON...PLEASANT RIDGE...
SNODDY AND NEW MOUNT HEBRON.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3294 8817 3296 8819 3296 8816 3300 8817
      3304 8815 3305 8807 3304 8804 3307 8801
      3309 8783 3302 8783 3302 8771 3300 8771
      3298 8775 3295 8773 3293 8777 3290 8777
      3290 8781 3284 8783 3286 8816 3292 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 269DEG 22KT 3296 8815

17/KLAWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
807 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ALZ011-012-040200-
MARION AL-LAMAR AL-
807 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAMAR AND MARION COUNTIES UNTIL
900 PM CDT...

AT 806 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR NEW SALEM TO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DETROIT TO NEAR BEDFORD TO NEAR COLUMBUS AFB TO BENT
OAK...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAMILTON...WINFIELD...VERNON...SULLIGENT...MILLPORT...GUIN...
HACKLEBURG...BRILLIANT...GLEN ALLEN...KENNEDY...DETROIT...
BEAVERTON...GU-WIN...BLOOMING GROVE...CREWS...LAMAR COUNTY AIRPORT...
BRINN...BEDFORD...LAKE BUTTAHATCHEE AND WESTON.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3424 8818 3431 8791 3431 8764 3392 8764
      3392 8795 3353 8795 3353 8827
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 256DEG 40KT 3414 8829 3396 8824 3379 8826 3359
8840 3343 8853

17/KLAWS