Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEEMS FAIRLY
STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG OR JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND EVENTUALLY INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA. A TONGUE OF HIGHER
QUALITY MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN THAT REGION BASED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ORIENTED AT AROUND 45 DEG TO
THE ZONE OF DEVELOPMENT...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A BROKEN LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE
STRONGER REAR INFLOW OCCURS...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED
BY MODEST 0-1 KM SHEAR AND HELICITY AND HIGHER-THAN-OPTIMAL LCL
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST RISK SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES FROM 6-9 PM AS STORMS INTERACT WITH ZONE OF ENHANCED
INSTABILITY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
THE I-59 CORRIDOR...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE
MOST PART WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SERIES OF IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
MODELS SUGGEST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN FLAT
ENOUGH FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE IN THE HEART OF SEVERE WEATHER SEASON...A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AT
LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...MAINLY NEAR
TCL AND BHM...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TERMINAL
ACTUALLY BEING AFFECTED TO INCLUDE VCTS. BROKEN LINE OF TS WILL MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING ALL
TERMINALS. HAVE TIMED OUT TSRA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH TIME WILL
CONTINUE WITH SHRA AND ONLY VCTS FOR MGM/TOI. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
WITH THE RAIN/STORMS AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO IFR IMMEDIATELY AFTER
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND THEN N. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TOMORROW MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
NORTH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  64  37  67  51 /  80   0   0  10  60
ANNISTON    48  65  40  68  52 /  80   0   0  10  60
BIRMINGHAM  48  67  41  68  55 /  80   0   0  10  60
TUSCALOOSA  48  68  43  69  56 /  80   0   0  20  60
CALERA      49  68  43  70  55 /  80   0   0  10  50
AUBURN      55  69  43  69  54 /  60  10   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  54  72  45  72  57 /  60  10   0  10  40
TROY        58  71  43  72  57 /  50  10   0  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

87/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
739 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-041545-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
739 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LINDEN...TO
ALABASTER...TO JACKSONVILLE. THE THREAT TIME WILL BE FROM 6 PM
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALICEVILLE TO JASPER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

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