Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEEMS FAIRLY
STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG OR JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND EVENTUALLY INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA. A TONGUE OF HIGHER
QUALITY MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN THAT REGION BASED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ORIENTED AT AROUND 45 DEG TO
THE ZONE OF DEVELOPMENT...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A BROKEN LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE
STRONGER REAR INFLOW OCCURS...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED
BY MODEST 0-1 KM SHEAR AND HELICITY AND HIGHER-THAN-OPTIMAL LCL
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST RISK SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES FROM 6-9 PM AS STORMS INTERACT WITH ZONE OF ENHANCED
INSTABILITY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
THE I-59 CORRIDOR...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE
MOST PART WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SERIES OF IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
MODELS SUGGEST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN FLAT
ENOUGH FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE IN THE HEART OF SEVERE WEATHER SEASON...A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AT
LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...MAINLY NEAR
TCL AND BHM...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TERMINAL
ACTUALLY BEING AFFECTED TO INCLUDE VCTS. BROKEN LINE OF TS WILL MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING ALL
TERMINALS. HAVE TIMED OUT TSRA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH TIME WILL
CONTINUE WITH SHRA AND ONLY VCTS FOR MGM/TOI. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
WITH THE RAIN/STORMS AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO IFR IMMEDIATELY AFTER
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND THEN N. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TOMORROW MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
NORTH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  64  37  67  51 /  80   0   0  10  60
ANNISTON    48  65  40  68  52 /  80   0   0  10  60
BIRMINGHAM  48  67  41  68  55 /  80   0   0  10  60
TUSCALOOSA  48  68  43  69  56 /  80   0   0  20  60
CALERA      49  68  43  70  55 /  80   0   0  10  50
AUBURN      55  69  43  69  54 /  60  10   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  54  72  45  72  57 /  60  10   0  10  40
TROY        58  71  43  72  57 /  50  10   0  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

87/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
739 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-041545-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
739 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LINDEN...TO
ALABASTER...TO JACKSONVILLE. THE THREAT TIME WILL BE FROM 6 PM
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALICEVILLE TO JASPER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
702 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

ALZ011-040045-
MARION AL-
702 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 702 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FAIRVIEW...OR NEAR FULTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAMILTON...HACKLEBURG...BRINN...LAKE BUTTAHATCHEE...WESTON...BEAR
CREEK...PINEY GROVE...UPPER BEAR CREEK RESERVOIR...TESSNER...
SHOTTSVILLE...PIGEYE...BEXAR...PEARCES MILL AND RANKIN FITE AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 8764 3406 8764 3414 8820 3432 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 286DEG 41KT 3432 8833

56

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
743 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     HAIL             3 NE SHOTTSVILLE        34.30N 88.09W
04/03/2015  E0.50 INCH       MARION             AL   PUBLIC

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

LINHARES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
747 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

ALZ011-014-040145-
MARION AL-WINSTON AL-
747 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARION AND WINSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 746 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HACKLEBURG...OR 11 MILES WEST OF HALEYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HALEYVILLE AND NEEDMORE AROUND 810 PM CDT.
  ASHRIDGE AROUND 830 PM CDT.
  WINSTON FREE STATE BARN AROUND 835 PM CDT.
  DOUBLE SPRINGS...SMITH LAKE AND HOUSTON RECREATIONAL AREA AROUND
840 PM CDT.
  MORELAND...BRUSHY LAKE AND CORINTH REC AREA AROUND 845 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE ADDISON TOWN HALL...
WINSTON COUNTY AIRPORT...UPSHAW...HULLETT BRANCH...SIPSEY RIVER REC
AREA...ADDISON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...HOUSTON...MILL CREEK...UPPER BEAR
CREEK RESERVOIR AND TESSNER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8711 3409 8711 3413 8764 3416 8789
      3431 8789
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 278DEG 24KT 3427 8781

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
748 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             HACKLEBURG              34.27N 87.83W
04/03/2015  E0.50 INCH       MARION             AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL FALLING

&&

LINHARES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
749 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

ALZ030-031-040115-
GREENE AL-SUMTER AL-
749 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SUMTER AND CENTRAL GREENE
COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 749 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BOLIGEE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EUTAW...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EUTAW...BOLIGEE...GAINESVILLE...EPES...THORNHILL...ALLISON...WALDEN
QUARTERS...I 20 REST AREA NEAR EUTAW...EUTAW MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...FIVE
POINTS INTERSECTION AND NEW MOUNT HEBRON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3297 8775 3295 8773 3293 8777 3291 8777
      3286 8783 3280 8782 3277 8787 3276 8786
      3277 8783 3275 8781 3271 8783 3271 8780
      3270 8780 3265 8813 3283 8819
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 254DEG 34KT 3277 8808

56