Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
527 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

QUITE COOL AND CRISP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. IN FACT...SOME OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH HAVE FALLEN TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
WE'LL SEE ANOTHER SUNNY YET SOMEWHAT COOL DAY TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE SFC RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 60S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS CENTRAL ALABAMA
CAN EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DECREASE. THEREFORE
IT WILL BE A BIT TRICKY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY HOW LOW TEMPS WILL GO.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

19

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY AND WEAK IMPULSES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NUDGE CLOSER TO
THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS
TO THE AREA AS THE TROUGH NOW SITS OVER THE PLAINS. WILL BRING
RAIN BACK TO THE AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSH A FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING...THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN TIMING.
DESPITE THE DAYTIME FRONTAL TIMING...INSTABILITIES REMAIN
CONSERVATIVE DUE TO QUICKLY SATURATING COLUMNS AND WEAK LAPSE
RATES. WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR STORMS...AND
EXPECT STRONG LIFT ALONG THE FRONT EVEN THROUGH THE PARENT SYSTEM
AND BETTER DYNAMICS ARE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT TS IN THE FORECAST...AND MONITOR FOR CHANGES THAT
WARRANT A MENTION OF SEVERE IMPACTS IN OTHER GRAPHICS/PRODUCTS.

AIRMASS DRIES OUT QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 7-10 KTS TODAY.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RH
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON
FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
MIDWEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  32  63  41  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    61  34  64  41  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  36  64  46  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  66  38  66  46  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      64  37  64  46  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      62  37  63  44  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  66  38  67  46  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        64  37  67  46  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CLAY-
CLEBURNE-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-
ELMORE-ETOWAH-LEE-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CHEROKEE-
ETOWAH-MARION-WINSTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
705 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-151615-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
705 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 25
PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER.

NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS AND VALLEYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THRU
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY THRU
THE MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.