Frost Advisory 6, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1116 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

BOY IS IT DRY OUT THERE THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY COMING
IN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE AND SEE NO REASON AS TO THOSE
DEWPOINTS RISING MUCH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS HERE. THESE CHANGES RESULTED IN A NEED FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING TO BE HOISTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AS RH VALUES
WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AFTERNOON. AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS THINKING. OVERALL NOT AS CHILLY AS THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS WILL STILL SEE A CHANCE AT SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP
TO OR BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE DURATION WILL NOT BE AS LONG.
QUESTIONS INTO EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FROST ADVISORY IS BEING
CONTEMPLATED AND WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS BEING THE ISSUE.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RH
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MIDWEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 358 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY AND WEAK IMPULSES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NUDGE CLOSER TO
THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS
TO THE AREA AS THE TROUGH NOW SITS OVER THE PLAINS. WILL BRING
RAIN BACK TO THE AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSH A FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING...THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN TIMING.
DESPITE THE DAYTIME FRONTAL TIMING...INSTABILITIES REMAIN
CONSERVATIVE DUE TO QUICKLY SATURATING COLUMNS AND WEAK LAPSE
RATES. WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR STORMS...AND
EXPECT STRONG LIFT ALONG THE FRONT EVEN THROUGH THE PARENT SYSTEM
AND BETTER DYNAMICS ARE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT TS IN THE FORECAST...AND MONITOR FOR CHANGES THAT
WARRANT A MENTION OF SEVERE IMPACTS IN OTHER GRAPHICS/PRODUCTS.

AIRMASS DRIES OUT QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  32  63  41  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    62  34  64  41  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  36  64  46  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  38  66  46  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      65  37  64  46  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      63  37  63  44  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  67  38  67  46  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        65  37  67  46  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-
CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-
RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1036 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-151945-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1036 AM CST SAT NOV 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER.

NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS AND VALLEYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THRU
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY THRU
THE MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.