Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

UPDATE TO CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH FOR WILLIAMS...DIVIDE AND BURKE
COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...AS OF 2345 UTC...ANVIL SHADING APPEARS TO HAVE COOLED
THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST ENOUGH TO HOLD MOST CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR NOW.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE DOMINANT SUPERCELL ACROSS BOWMAN COUNTY
WHICH IS IN THE RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED ENVIRONMENT ON THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE 21-22 UTC HRRR RUNS STILL SUGGEST CONGEALING OF
CONVECTION....WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT RADAR
TRENDS...ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH TWO POTENTIAL
LINES...ONE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE US
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND A SECOND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. OVERALL...THE TORNADIC THREAT IS LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY
ANVIL SHADING AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS THE SLIGHT RISK AND ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM
RISK CATEGORY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY TWO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AND AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND GROWTH EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST SHOWS SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
MERGING INTO A COUPLE OF LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS 00Z THROUGH 05Z AS
THEY CROSS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEPICTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN 05Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR A PLETHORA OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. CAPE NEARING 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 65KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THIS WAS WELL ADVERTISED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND REMAINS WITH THIS DISCUSSION. LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING CENTRAL THEN TAPERING OFF
BEFORE 18Z. DRY WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING QUASI
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO NORTHWEST FLOW...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CREATING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THOUGH THE MODELS BEGIN TO WAVER LATER IN THE PERIOD...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE REST OF EXTENDED...AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CONUS SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL....DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MVFR/IFR
STRATUS MAY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LIFTING MID MONDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 25KTS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
647 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

NDZ003>005-010>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-230000-
RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-
GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
647 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY WIND GREATER THAN 40
MPH...HAIL...FLOODING...FUNNEL CLOUDS AND TORNADOES TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 701-250-4224 OR BY POSTING TO THE NWS
BISMARCK FACEBOOK OR TWITTER PAGES.

NDZ001-002-009-230000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-
647 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY WIND GREATER THAN 40
MPH...HAIL...FLOODING...FUNNEL CLOUDS AND TORNADOES TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 701-250-4224 OR BY POSTING TO THE NWS
BISMARCK FACEBOOK OR TWITTER PAGES.

AYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

NDZ010-011-220000-
WARD-MOUNTRAIL-
623 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL WARD AND
EAST CENTRAL MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...

AT 623 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS 9 MILES NORTH OF
PLAZA...OR 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STANLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLAZA AND MAKOTI.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4811 10214 4827 10201 4813 10152 4790 10172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 299DEG 22KT 4816 10198

SIMOSKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HEAVY RAIN       8 NW SUNSET BUTTE       46.23N 103.93W
06/21/2015  M1.16 INCH       BOWMAN             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH

&&

KROLAK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
658 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

NDZ012-013-220030-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-
658 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MCHENRY AND WESTERN
PIERCE COUNTIES...

AT 657 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 8 MILES EAST OF TOWNER...OR
11 MILES WEST OF RUGBY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUGBY...BALTA...BERWICK...ORRIN AND SILVA.

LAT...LON 4837 9980 4837 9985 4803 9984 4797 9990
      4821 10048 4852 10014
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 303DEG 35KT 4831 10023

SIMOSKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
703 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             12 S RHAME              46.06N 103.66W
06/21/2015  M1.00 INCH       BOWMAN             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL BEGAN AT 650 PM CDT AND IS ONGOING AT TIME OF CALL

&&

KROLAK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>