Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS THE SLIGHT RISK AND ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM
RISK CATEGORY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY TWO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AND AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND GROWTH EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST SHOWS SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
MERGING INTO A COUPLE OF LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS 00Z THROUGH 05Z AS
THEY CROSS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEPICTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN 05Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR A PLETHORA OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. CAPE NEARING 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 65KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THIS WAS WELL ADVERTISED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND REMAINS WITH THIS DISCUSSION. LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING CENTRAL THEN TAPERING OFF
BEFORE 18Z. DRY WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING QUASI
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO NORTHWEST FLOW...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CREATING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THOUGH THE MODELS BEGIN TO WAVER LATER IN THE PERIOD...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE REST OF EXTENDED...AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CONUS SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
KISN...KDIK...AND KBIS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TSRA HAS BEEN PUT IN THE TAFS
FOR THESE SITES. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT A
THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT KMOT AND KJMS...THUS HAVE WENT WITH VCTS
FOR THESE SITES. THAT SAID MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT ALL SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 10Z MONDAY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING
SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS IN VFR FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...MM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
221 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-221930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
221 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY WIND GREATER THAN 40
MPH...HAIL...FLOODING...FUNNEL CLOUDS AND TORNADOES TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 701-250-4224 OR BY POSTING TO THE NWS
BISMARCK FACEBOOK OR TWITTER PAGES.

KS/ACOOP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
226 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

NDZ001-002-009-212015-
DIVIDE ND-WILLIAMS ND-BURKE ND-
226 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN BURKE...NORTHERN
WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES...

AT 224 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMO...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CROSBY...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CROSBY...POWERS LAKE...AND
WRITING ROCK STATE HISTORICAL SITE...AMBROSE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4899 10270 4855 10248 4855 10287 4844 10289
      4844 10404 4900 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 265DEG 38KT 4869 10355

MATHEWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
314 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

NDZ002-212045-
BURKE-
314 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BURKE
COUNTY...

AT 313 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS 8 MILES SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS...OR 24 MILES EAST OF CROSBY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIGNITE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4867 10235 4866 10289 4871 10289 4873 10292
      4885 10293 4898 10243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 258DEG 25KT 4878 10279

SIMOSKO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
531 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

NDZ003-004-011-012-212300-
MCHENRY-WARD-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-
531 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
RENVILLE...EAST CENTRAL WARD...NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY AND SOUTHWESTERN
BOTTINEAU COUNTIES...

AT 531 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEAR GLENBURN...
OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOHALL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINOT AIR FORCE BASE...GLENBURN...DEERING AND WOLSETH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4846 10145 4869 10127 4853 10064 4829 10081
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 294DEG 34KT 4857 10125

SIMOSKO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

NDZ010-011-220000-
WARD-MOUNTRAIL-
623 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL WARD AND
EAST CENTRAL MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...

AT 623 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS 9 MILES NORTH OF
PLAZA...OR 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STANLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLAZA AND MAKOTI.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4811 10214 4827 10201 4813 10152 4790 10172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 299DEG 22KT 4816 10198

SIMOSKO