Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
409 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THE REST OF
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY RAIN, HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND
POSSIBLE A TORNADO. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND REMAIN
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
3 PM UPDATE...

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL NY. WARM FRONT STILL OVER THE
NRN CWA. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CREATE HIGH SHEAR. 20 TO 30 KT
0 TO 1KM SHEAR OVER LAKE ONTARIO MOVING EAST. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR 60
KTS NEAR L ONT TO 30 KTS PA/NY BORDER. STORMS MOSTLY IN THE FAR
NORTH ALONG THIS. REST OF THE AREA ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS L60S. CAPE IS
OVER 1K. DRY MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN.

THE COLD FRONT IN FAR WRN NY WILL SWEEP THROUGH WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SE INTO NE PA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR TRAINING AS PWATS RISE TO 2 INCHES WITH DEEP
SATURATED CLOUD DEPTHS AND A 30 KT LLJ. BEST CHC OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL NY. IN THIS AREA ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WETTER WITH BETTER TSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTN.

LATE TONIGHT FORCING WILL LESSEN WHILE LIFT WANES. PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE, STRENGTH, AND ALSO MOVE SE WITH COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NNW WHILE AT UPPER LEVELS A
RIDGE BUILDS. SHOWERS WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. NY
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY THEN SAT NIGHT DRY EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY THE TREND HAS BEEN TO BRING SHOWERS BACK EARLIER AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT. SOME MODELS HAVE SHOWERS COMING INTO THE WRN ZONES
MIDDAY THEN EAST AFTN. UPPED POPS SUNDAY AND SUN NGT. THIS WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUN NGT WITH SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MORE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIPRES BLDS IN TUE BRINGING CLRG SKIES HOLDING INTO WED.
HWVR...IT/S A BIT OF A DIRTY FLAT RDG AND ISLTD CONV CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP OVER THE PA ZONES. SLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURNS
IN EARNEST LATE WED INTO THU AS A WV AND SFC LOW APRCHS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCRSD CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TRWS
INTO THU AND BEYOND.

HPC GUID WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OTR MODEL GUID AND WAS GRNLY
FLWD. MINOR TWEAKS TO DATA FOR BETTER COLLABORATION AND TO BRING
BETTER CONSISTANCY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG COLD FNT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN AND EVE
TRIGGERING SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER THE NY TAF SITES. XPCT BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS WITH THE STORMS...ALONG WITH STRONG
WINDS. FNT WEAKENS OVER THE NY/PA BRDR AND CONV WILL SLOWLY END.
LEFTOVER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...AND
ISLTD IFR CONDS...THRU LATE NGT. CLRG ON SAT WILL BRING VFR CONDS
BEFORE THE END OF TEH PD.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT -SAT NGT-SUN...VFR EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG SUN MRNG ESPECIALLY
KELM.

SUN NGT-TUE...POSSIBLE SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
330 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-131930-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-
330 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...TORNADO WATCH 292 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE, WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...IF
HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES PROLONGED OVER ANY ONE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-131930-
SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-
LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
330 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE HEAVY RAIN. IF THE RAIN LASTS LONG
ENOUGH OVER AN URBAN AREA IT COULD CREATE MINOR FLOOD PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
620 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOWARD                  42.37N  77.52W
06/12/2015                   STEUBEN            NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN.

&&

EMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
701 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW BRIDGEWATER       42.92N  75.27W
06/12/2015                   ONEIDA             NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT RT8 AND SICKLE RD.

&&

EMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
707 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HOLLAND PATENT          43.24N  75.26W
06/12/2015  M1.25 INCH       ONEIDA             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TAC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
723 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CORTLAND                42.60N  76.18W
06/12/2015                   CORTLAND           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN.

&&

EMG