Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING
IN A SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS. TODAY HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS LATER TODAY COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER
RETURNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
10 AM UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY GOING IN NY.
ADDED THESE IN. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPS LOW AND DEWPOINTS HIGH.
MOVEMENT IS TO THE NE AND OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART BY
NOON. A BRIEF GAP THEN INCREASING CHANCES THIS AFTN.

415 AM UPDATE... THE SFC FRNTL ZN THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER
OR NEAR OUR FCST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXTENDS FROM NRN OH
TO CNTRL/SRN PA EARLY THIS MRNG. THIS BNDRY IS BEGINNING TO PUSH
NWD ONCE AGN AS A WARM FRNT...AND IN RESPONSE TO THIS...ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS DVLPG FROM SRN ONT-WRN NY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
SKIRT OUR FAR NRN ZNS THROUGH 9 OR 10 AM...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN PCPN-FREE OVER THE VERY NEAR TERM.

THE OTHER ISSUE EARLY THIS MRNG IS LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER PTNS OF
SRN LUZERNE CNTY IN NE PA...WHERE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED
LAST EVENING. THE FOG HERE SHOULD BURN OFF BY 8-9 AM.

FOR THE LATE MRNG-EARLY AFTN PD (10 AM-2 PM)...WE'LL SEE SUNSHINE
THROUGH HIGH CLDNS...ALG WITH INCREASINGLY WARM HUMID CONDS...AS
CNY/NE PA EMERGES INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

FROM MID-AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE (ROUGHLY 2-8 PM)...WE SHOULD SEE
ISOLD-SCTD CONVECTION START TO FIRE...AS THE AMS BCMS MDTLY-VERY
UNSTABLE (PROGGED ML CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG (LEANED HEAVILY ON
THE NAM/HI-RES ARW/RGNL GEM FOR THIS PROGNOSIS))...AND LARGE-SCALE
FORCED LIFT GRADUALLY IMPROVES (MAINLY CNY)...OWING TO LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND ANY LAKE
BREEZE BNDRYS...PLUS UPR-LVL DIFLUENCE UNDERNEATH A DVLPG JET
ENTRANCE RGN. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURG THE DAYLIGHT
HRS SHOULD BE OVER OUR CNY CNTYS...WITH MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY DOWN
OVER NE PA/SULLIVAN CNTY NY. AS FAR AS STORM INTENSITY GOES...WE
STILL THINK THERE IS A SVR WX THREAT...AS DEEP-LYRD SHEAR
(PROJECTED 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS OF 30-40 KT) ACCOMPANIES THE PREV
MENTIONED CAPE. SUCH CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
LOCALIZED SUPERCELLS...AND/OR STG LINEAR FEATURES. THE SVR WX
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED LOCALLY IN OUR HWO
PRODUCT...AND SPC ALSO CONTINUES TO PAINT A SLGT RISK OF SVR THIS
AFTN/EVE...MAINLY AGN OVER OUR NY CNTYS.

FOR THE MID TO LATE EVE PD (ROUGHLY 8 PM-2 AM)...AS A SFC WV
TRACKS FROM UPSTATE NY INTO NRN NEW ENG/SRN QB...THE MAIN SFC
BNDRY SHOULD GET DRAGGED BACK SWD AS A COLD FRNT THROUGH CNY/NE
PA. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM ABT THE TWIN TIERS NWD...WHERE UPR-LVL
SUPPORT IS MAXIMIZED. ACRS MUCH OF NE PA...SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE SCTD IN NATURE. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVE
HRS...ANY LINGERING SVR WX THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION MORE TO A
HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO...AS THE INSTABILITY SLOWLY DIMINISHES AND
THE SHEAR ALSO WEAKENS. PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL...WITH A VERY JUICY ENVIRONMENT (PWAT
VALUES NEAR OR EVEN ABV 2" AND WCD'S OF 12-14K FT) AND INITIALLY
GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT NEAR THE SWD MOVG COLD FRNT (ALTHOUGH
THIS WEAKENS LATE AT NGT BY THE TIME THE FRNT REACHES NE PA...AS
ALLUDED TO EARLIER). FOR THESE REASONS...WE'LL HIGHLIGHT AREAS
FROM THE TWIN TIERS NWD THIS EVE FOR PSBL HEAVY RAINFALL/ISOLD
FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS ALSO PLACED PTNS OF WRN/CNTRL NY IN A
SLGT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS PD.

IN GENERAL...SHWRS/TSTMS DECREASE BOTH IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE DURG
THE PRE-DAWN HRS EARLY SAT. DURG THE DAY SAT...THE SFC BNDRY
SHOULD ONCE AGN SETTLE JUST TO OUR S ACRS THE SRN HALF OF PA. THIS
FRNT MAY REMAIN CLOSE ENUF TO SPARK A FEW WIDELY SEPARATED
SHWRS/TSTMS ON SAT AFTN...MAINLY DOWN OVER OUR FAR SRN AREAS
(MOSTLY S OF A WILKES-BARRE-CARBONDALE-HONESDALE-MONTICELLO LN).
FOR MUCH OF THE RGN ON SAT THOUGH...IT SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE...WITH
AT LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND SOMEWHAT LWR HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
325 AM UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING IN FROM QUEBEC...SHOULD MAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
FAIRLY QUIET EXCEPT FOR SOME VALLEY FOG SUNDAY MORNING. REMAINS
OF SURFACE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED TOWARDS SW PA...THUS ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT BEST IN CENTRAL TWIN TIERS TO WYOMING VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT. NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BURP UP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM...AS A
SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO RIDE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE.

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD...ALLOWING VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO RETURN INCLUDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 2 INCHES OR SO ACCORDING TO THE GFS...OR BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. NOT SEEING STRONG FORCING JET-
WISE...AND THERE MAY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WHICH MAY SOMEWHAT
HOLD BACK DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...WITH THE RIDGE
FLATTENED...SHORTWAVES WILL BE TRAVERSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
SURFACE FRONT WAFFLING BACK-AND-FORTH. SO OVERALL SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AS A
BETTER-MARKED WAVE PUSHES THROUGH WITH THE HIGH PWAT VALUES.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BECOME AN ISSUE WHERE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OCCUR...PARTICULARLY CENTRAL NY ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIPRES BLDS IN TUE BRINGING CLRG SKIES HOLDING INTO WED.
HWVR...IT/S A BIT OF A DIRTY FLAT RDG AND ISLTD CONV CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP OVER THE PA ZONES. SLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURNS
IN EARNEST LATE WED INTO THU AS A WV AND SFC LOW APRCHS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCRSD CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TRWS
INTO THU AND BEYOND.

HPC GUID WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OTR MODEL GUID AND WAS GRNLY
FLWD. MINOR TWEAKS TO DATA FOR BETTER COLLABORATION AND TO BRING
BETTER CONSISTANCY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

STRONG COLD FNT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN AND EVE
TRIGGERING SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER THE NY TAF SITES. XPCT BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS WITH THE STORMS...ALONG WITH STRONG
WINDS. FNT WEAKENS OVER THE NY/PA BRDR AND CONV WILL SLOWLY END.
LEFTOVER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...AND
ISLTD IFR CONDS...THRU LATE NGT. CLRG ON SAT WILL BRING VFR CONDS
BEFORE THE END OF TEH PD.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT -SAT NGT-SUN...VFR EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG SUN MRNG ESPECIALLY
KELM.

SUN NGT-TUE...POSSIBLE SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLJ/TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
330 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-131930-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-
330 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...TORNADO WATCH 292 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE, WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...IF
HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES PROLONGED OVER ANY ONE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-131930-
SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-
LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
330 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE HEAVY RAIN. IF THE RAIN LASTS LONG
ENOUGH OVER AN URBAN AREA IT COULD CREATE MINOR FLOOD PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
215 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

NYZ015>018-121900-
SENECA NY-ONONDAGA NY-YATES NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-
215 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ONONDAGA...CENTRAL
SENECA...CENTRAL CAYUGA AND NORTHEASTERN YATES COUNTIES  ...

* AT 215 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  OVER KENDAIA...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF PENN YAN...MOVING EAST AT 45
  MPH.

* SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROMULUS AND OVID AROUND 220 PM EDT.
  AURORA...LEVANNA AND CANOGA AROUND 230 PM EDT.
  LEDYARD AND UNION SPRINGS AROUND 235 PM EDT.
  SCIPIO CENTER AND VENICE CENTER AROUND 240 PM EDT.
  FLEMING...CASOWASCO AND MELROSE PARK AROUND 245 PM EDT.
  OWASCO AROUND 250 PM EDT.
  SKANEATELES...NILES AND KELLOGGSVILLE AROUND 255 PM EDT.
  MARCELLUS AROUND 300 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4277 7697 4282 7697 4304 7633 4278 7620
      4262 7697 4276 7704
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 250DEG 38KT 4274 7692

RHB

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