Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1101 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
BELIEVE THAT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF
SITE THROUGH THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY
BRIEFLY VISIT THE TAF SITES TOWARD SUNRISE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRIM THE TORNADO WATCH AS THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE TRIMMED THE BACK EDGE OF THE TORNADO WATCH WITH THE WATCH INTACT
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE PREVIOUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND WE WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE
ENOUGH TIME BEFORE SUNSET TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AS HI-RES MODELS DEVELOP AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
STORMS ACROSS OUR WEST TONIGHT BUT THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
TORNADOES FROM THAT ROUND OF CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CAUSE A COMPLICATED TAF CYCLE THROUGH ROUGHLY 6Z THIS EVENING
FOR ALL TERMINALS. HAVE CARRIED VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS AND HAVE
REMOVED MENTION FROM PREVAILING BASED ON HI-RES MODELS. SHOULD A CORE
MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK DROP IN
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO IFR OR LOWER. UPDATES ARE LIKELY DURING
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE A MVFR
DECK DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY
AMPLE. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY TO MIX OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RE-POSTING THE AFD SECTION CONCERNING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
TODAY. LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

WE WILL PERFORM A SPECIAL BALLOON RELEASE AT 18Z. INITIAL CONCERN IS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND
ONGOING CLOUDS/SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. FURTHER EAST WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER SURFACE DIABATIC HEATING AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL MOIST
ADVECTION IS OCCURING. 12Z OBSERVED KAMA SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE YIELDS MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. ONE
OF THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES NOW IS TO WHAT DEGREE WE MIX OUT AND
IMPLICATIONS THAT WILL HAVE FOR INSTABILITY. MOISTURE IS PROBABLY
QUITE SHALLOW BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPENING WITH TIME.
LATEST WEST TEXAS MESONET OBS SHOW LOW 60 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINTS
UP STREAM IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAP AND OTHER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SEEM TO BE TOO WEAK AND SLIGHTLY
MISPLACED WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...HENCE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISOLLOBARIC RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN IN REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS AREA MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST AS WELL. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 25 KNOTS. WITH SUCH LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 8500 FEET AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF A
TORNADO WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS RESULTING IN STRONGER 0-1KM
SHEAR.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS DURATION. WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING SO WILL THE THREAT OF CONVECTION. A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT.

BRB

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE
RISK FOR STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SATURDAY THE LOW CONTINUES ITS
TRACK AND SOME MODELS PLACE THE PANHANDLES WITH THE DRY SLOT OF THIS
SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. HAVE KEPT VERY LOW END POPS FOR THIS AREA BUT IF THIS DRY
SLOT TREND CONTINUES THEN WE COULD BE PRECIP FREE ON SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND BRINGS OFF AND ON
PRECIP CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO BE LIMITED NEXT WEEK TO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES. THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA COULD
MITIGATE THESE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FUELS COULD BECOME
UNSUPPORTIVE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

15/06

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1059 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

TXZ013-014-018-019-170445-
ARMSTRONG TX-CARSON TX-DONLEY TX-GRAY TX-
1059 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ARMSTRONG...SOUTHEASTERN
CARSON...SOUTHWESTERN GRAY AND NORTHWESTERN DONLEY COUNTIES UNTIL
1145 PM CDT...

AT 1059 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLAUDE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CLAUDE...             GROOM...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 126.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3537 10106 3515 10084 3495 10144 3512 10152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0400Z 236DEG 31KT 3507 10139

NF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

TXZ013-014-018-019-170530-
ARMSTRONG TX-CARSON TX-DONLEY TX-GRAY TX-
1142 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ARMSTRONG...SOUTHEASTERN
CARSON...GRAY AND DONLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1140 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF
PAMPA TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GOODNIGHT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CLARENDON...          PAMPA...              LELIA LAKE...
  HOWARDWICK...         HEDLEY...             GREENBELT LAKE...
  GOODNIGHT...          MCLEAN...             LEFORS...
  LAKE MCCLELLAN...     KINGSMILL...          ALANREED...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 115 AND 146.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3485 10124 3561 10103 3560 10054 3526 10054
      3481 10067
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 274DEG 23KT 3551 10093 3496 10111

NF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 AM     HAIL             4 SE LAKE MCCLELLAN     35.18N 100.82W
04/17/2015  E1.75 INCH       DONLEY             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE WAS FALLING AT THE GRAY
            COUNTY REST AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500384

FENNER