Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Amarillo, TX

April 16, 2015Wheeler County, Texas

NWS Amarillo, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 16, 2015, 7:06 PM CDT for Wheeler County, Texas. It was in force for 54 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Apr 16, 2015, 7:06 PM CDT (00:06 UTC)
Expired: Apr 16, 2015, 8:00 PM CDT
In force: 54 min
Issued by: NWS Amarillo, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 2.5 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 16, 1:48 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 301 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -116 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1659 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 17 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 142 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 16, 6:52 PM CDT, 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 16, 6:52 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
652 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE TRIMMED THE BACK EDGE OF THE TORNADO WATCH WITH THE WATCH INTACT
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE PREVIOUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND WE WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE
ENOUGH TIME BEFORE SUNSET TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AS HI-RES MODELS DEVELOP AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
STORMS ACROSS OUR WEST TONIGHT BUT THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
TORNADOES FROM THAT ROUND OF CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CAUSE A COMPLICATED TAF CYCLE THROUGH ROUGHLY 6Z THIS EVENING
FOR ALL TERMINALS. HAVE CARRIED VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS AND HAVE
REMOVED MENTION FROM PREVAILING BASED ON HI-RES MODELS. SHOULD A CORE
MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK DROP IN
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO IFR OR LOWER. UPDATES ARE LIKELY DURING
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE A MVFR
DECK DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY
AMPLE. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY TO MIX OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RE-POSTING THE AFD SECTION CONCERNING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
TODAY. LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

WE WILL PERFORM A SPECIAL BALLOON RELEASE AT 18Z. INITIAL CONCERN IS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND
ONGOING CLOUDS/SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. FURTHER EAST WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER SURFACE DIABATIC HEATING AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL MOIST
ADVECTION IS OCCURING. 12Z OBSERVED KAMA SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE YIELDS MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. ONE
OF THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES NOW IS TO WHAT DEGREE WE MIX OUT AND
IMPLICATIONS THAT WILL HAVE FOR INSTABILITY. MOISTURE IS PROBABLY
QUITE SHALLOW BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPENING WITH TIME.
LATEST WEST TEXAS MESONET OBS SHOW LOW 60 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINTS
UP STREAM IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAP AND OTHER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SEEM TO BE TOO WEAK AND SLIGHTLY
MISPLACED WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...HENCE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISOLLOBARIC RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN IN REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS AREA MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST AS WELL. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 25 KNOTS. WITH SUCH LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 8500 FEET AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF A
TORNADO WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS RESULTING IN STRONGER 0-1KM
SHEAR.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS DURATION. WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING SO WILL THE THREAT OF CONVECTION. A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT.

BRB

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE
RISK FOR STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SATURDAY THE LOW CONTINUES ITS
TRACK AND SOME MODELS PLACE THE PANHANDLES WITH THE DRY SLOT OF THIS
SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. HAVE KEPT VERY LOW END POPS FOR THIS AREA BUT IF THIS DRY
SLOT TREND CONTINUES THEN WE COULD BE PRECIP FREE ON SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND BRINGS OFF AND ON
PRECIP CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO BE LIMITED NEXT WEEK TO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES. THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA COULD
MITIGATE THESE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FUELS COULD BECOME
UNSUPPORTIVE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

99/14

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 16, 2:55 PM CDT, 4 hours 11 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
255 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-170800-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
255 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR
SIZE AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THIS TIME IS LOW.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NOT RECEIVING
WETTING RAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY ON FRIDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES SHOULD BE ALERT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ON FRIDAY.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 16, 5:54 PM CDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
554 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     TORNADO          5 S MIAMI               35.62N 100.64W
04/16/2015                   GRAY               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500364

LG

Local storm report, Apr 16, 6:04 PM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             5 SSE MIAMI             35.62N 100.59W
04/16/2015  M3.00 INCH       ROBERTS            TX   STORM CHASER

            HAIL AT LEAST 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER ON FM 1268.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500365

FENNER

Local storm report, Apr 16, 6:12 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
612 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TORNADO          9 N ALLISON             35.74N 100.10W
04/16/2015                   HEMPHILL           TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500366

LG

Local storm report, Apr 16, 6:44 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     HAIL             5 NW ALLISON            35.66N 100.16W
04/16/2015  M1.75 INCH       HEMPHILL           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500367

LG

Local storm report, Apr 16, 6:52 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
652 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             KELLERVILLE             35.37N 100.50W
04/16/2015  M2.00 INCH       WHEELER            TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500369

LG

Local storm report, Apr 16, 6:57 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
657 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     TSTM WND GST     KELLERVILLE             35.37N 100.50W
04/16/2015  E65 MPH          WHEELER            TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500370

14

The office that day

Everything else NWS Amarillo, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 16, 7:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Dallam, Hartley	46 min
Apr 16, 7:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Gray	31 min
Apr 16, 7:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Wheeler	66 min
Apr 16, 8:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Roberts	48 min
Apr 16, 8:39 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	AMA	Wheeler	4 hr
Apr 16, 9:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Wheeler	38 min
Apr 16, 9:21 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Roberts	39 min
Apr 16, 9:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Randall	43 min
Apr 16, 9:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Randall	49 min
Apr 16, 10:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Gray	46 min
Apr 16, 10:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Roberts	52 min
Apr 16, 10:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Carson, Gray	50 min
Apr 16, 10:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Armstrong	46 min
Apr 16, 11:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Donley, Gray	48 min
Apr 16, 11:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Collingsworth, Donley, Gray, Hemphill, Roberts, Wheeler	62 min
Apr 17, 12:05 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Hemphill	55 min
Apr 17, 12:51 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Collingsworth, Donley, Gray, Hemphill, Wheeler	54 min
Apr 17, 1:00 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Hemphill, Lipscomb	45 min
Apr 17, 1:11 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Collingsworth	49 min
Apr 17, 1:35 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	AMA	Wheeler	4 hr
Apr 17, 1:49 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Collingsworth, Wheeler	56 min
Apr 17, 2:42 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Collingsworth, Wheeler	63 min
Apr 17, 5:27 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	AMA	Wheeler	4 hr
Apr 17, 5:38 AM CDT	Red Flag Warning	AMA	Dallam, Deaf Smith, Hartley, Oldham	14 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.