Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
353 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER EAST...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A SMALL AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
LIKELY KICKING OFF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES COULD ALSO
ENCOURAGE A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSH EAST. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. FORECAST BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACH 30 TO 40KTS
OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...AND COULD SUPPORT SOME LONGER
LIVED STORMS. LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
WHICH COULD HELP STORMS PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS SOME TOMORROW BUT REMAINS CENTERED TO
THE EAST. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF
EXPECTED HEIGHT RISES. SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE ON SUNDAY WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ALSO IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS
MAINLY TO THAT REGION. BEYOND SUNDAY...THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY...AND A CHANCE REMAINS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST TO WEST. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS WILL LIKELY VARY SOME ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS THE TIME
APPROACHES...BUT FOR NOW HAVE NARROWED TO MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST AGAIN AND
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                70  97  71  97  70 /  20  10  10  20  20
BEAVER OK                  73 102  73  96  70 /  30  10  10  20  30
BOISE CITY OK              67  97  67  90  64 /  20  10  10  20  30
BORGER TX                  73 100  75  98  72 /  30   5  10  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              70 100  72  98  70 /  20   5  10  20  20
CANYON TX                  69  97  70  97  69 /  20   5  10  10  20
CLARENDON TX               71  97  72  98  72 /  20   5   5  10  10
DALHART TX                 67  99  68  94  67 /  20  10  10  20  30
GUYMON OK                  71 101  71  95  69 /  30  10  10  20  30
HEREFORD TX                68  97  69  98  68 /  20   5  10  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                74 100  74  98  72 /  30   5  10  20  30
PAMPA TX                   70  96  72  96  70 /  20   5  10  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                71  98  72  99  72 /  20   5   5  10  20
WELLINGTON TX              72  99  72 101  73 /  10   5   5   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

17/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
319 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-180830-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
319 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ELSENHEIMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
320 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

TXZ016-172045-
DEAF SMITH TX-
320 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

AT 318 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WILDORADO TO NEAR HEREFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HEREFORD...           DAWN...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3474 10251 3475 10251 3518 10243 3519 10241
      3518 10217 3475 10217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 237DEG 18KT 3515 10230 3487 10236

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
357 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

TXZ012-017-172130-
POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-
357 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN RANDALL AND WESTERN
POTTER COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTH OF
VALLEY DE ORO TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF UMBARGER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CANYON...             AMARILLO...           UMBARGER...
  VALLEY DE ORO...      BUSHLAND...           TIMBERCREEK CANYON...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3489 10217 3548 10216 3562 10177 3500 10180
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 231DEG 24KT 3533 10211 3500 10215

BRB

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