Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
602 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY INITIATED NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
SITUATED ALONG INTERSTATE 40. KAMA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE TO
SEE CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE SO HAVE
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP FOR KAMA WHILE MAINTAINING VCTS MENTION FOR
KGUY AND KDHT. ALL CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY 4Z
AND SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AN VARIABLE. WINDS RETURN TO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW MORNING WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AS THE AFTERNOON HOURS APPROACH. HAVE INSERTED VICINITY
THUNDER MENTION AT KAMA AND KDHT WHICH WILL BE IN A BETTER LOCATION
FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW DESPITE THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12Z ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS OUR REGION ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-UPPER RIDGE WITH A DISTINCT MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING
THE REGION WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND DESTABILIZATION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION DEVELOPING. MORNING SOUNDING AT
KAMA SHOWED SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ATOP DRY LOW LEVELS.
MODIFYING THIS SOUNDING YIELDS LITTLE CINH BY PEAK HEATING AND
MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP BUT SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. DCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND INVERTED-V
SOUNDING WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURSTS. ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE BRIEF AND MARGINAL GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND STORM ORGANIZATION. THE GREATEST COVERAGE
MAY BE IN A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED WEAK VORT
MAX AND NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY SEEN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM JUST NORTH OF
AMARILLO AND BORGER TO NEAR BEAVER.

SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN AND WITH WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. LITTLE CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AGAIN QUITE MOIST IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WITH AN INVERTED-V DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND PWATS
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT SHOULD
AID IN CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES FROM EXPANDING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE CONVECTION AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SUNDAY A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A SERIES OF OTHER
DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
SOUTHWARD MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD WEAKEN AND STALL ON MONDAY. A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
308 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-170815-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
308 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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