Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
352 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY.

INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL ALL
LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. BUT...BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH.

FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR
MONDAY. CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SLIDE THIS WAY
IN THE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP FEED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
LIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS CONVECTION SLIDES OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND SOUTHERN CO
ABOARD A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF A STALLING FRONT WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO HELP SUSTAIN SOME CONVECTION INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE AFTER DARK AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
STABILIZE...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LLJ SUPPORT /H85
WINDS AROUND 20 KTS/.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED DURING THIS MIDWEEK PERIOD DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT. ON TUESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
EMANATING FROM THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE
PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE
ROCKIES...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
STORMS.

THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY DOWNSTREAM OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED
DURING THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
TAP.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN IT AND AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BRINGING A BETTER FEED OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...WHILE A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR DIURNAL HEATING TO ACT ON THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO LIKELY FOSTER DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION BY
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHETHER A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH OR HANG UP TO OUR NORTH. THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE BY THIS TIME...AND SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

15/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
324 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-081100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
324 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES.
LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS WEEK WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING...AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PANHANDLES.

KB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
452 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

OKZ003-072245-
BEAVER OK-
452 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEAVER COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 450 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELMWOOD...OR 9 MILES SOUTH
OF BEAVER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BEAVER...             SLAPOUT...            MOCANE...
  KNOWLES...            GATE...               ELMWOOD...
  BALKO...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3700 9999 3650 10000 3650 10075 3685 10066
      3701 10009
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 270DEG 16KT 3669 10057

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
505 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

TXZ001-006-072300-
DALLAM TX-HARTLEY TX-
505 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HARTLEY AND DALLAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 504 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TEXLINE...OR 17 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CLAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DALHART...            WARE...               TEXLINE...
  CONLEN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3650 10305 3650 10216 3615 10216 3590 10227
      3609 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 272DEG 36KT 3629 10293

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
507 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

OKZ002-072315-
TEXAS OK-
507 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TEXAS COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

AT 506 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUYMON...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GUYMON...             TYRONE...             OPTIMA...
  HOOKER...             HARDESTY...           BAKER...
  ADAMS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3650 10096 3650 10106 3665 10158 3689 10154
      3700 10112 3700 10095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 278DEG 35KT 3672 10143

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
513 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     HAIL             1 N GUYMON              36.70N 101.48W
06/07/2015  E0.88 INCH       TEXAS              OK   PUBLIC

            ALSO ESTIMATED 50 MPH WIND EARLIER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500525

COCKRELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
514 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

OKZ002-072300-
TEXAS OK-
514 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TEXAS COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

AT 512 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUYMON...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GUYMON...             TYRONE...             OPTIMA...
  HOOKER...             HARDESTY...           BAKER...
  ADAMS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3650 10095 3650 10162 3692 10156 3701 10115
      3700 10095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 285DEG 30KT 3670 10141

LG

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