Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1136 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE BEST AT THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE AMA TAF SITE LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL TURN AROUND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
THE COMBINATION OF A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AROUND 21Z TODAY TO 00Z
MONDAY...AND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION AT ALL THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE MVFR
CEILINGS IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND 00Z TO 03Z MONDAY
AT THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES...AND THEN AROUND 04Z TO 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER AND
VARIABLE IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...

COUPLE ACTIVE DAYS/EVENINGS ON TAP AS H7 THETA-E RIDGE WHICH HAS
HELP SPARK CONVECTION IN NM AND FAR WRN PANHANDLE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTERACTS WITH A COLD FRONT
MVG INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY
FLATTENING OF THE MID-UPR LEVEL RIDGE AS S/WVS MOVE AROUND A
WEAKENING LOW WHICH WILL OPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. CAPE
VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 WILL PROVIDE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HIGHEST CONCERN ACROSS OK PANHANDLE
AND NRN TX PANHANDLE DUE TO PRESENCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPS AND HIGHER SHEAR VALUES ASSOC WITH WEAK JET STREAK. SPC
IS SHOWING SLT RISK FOR THESE AREAS AND MARGINAL RISK ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE REGION TODAY WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS...ALTHOUGH A 2% TORNADO AREA IS SHOWN IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREAS AS WELL. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH STALLING ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY PROVIDING CONTINUED MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AND
FURTHER SOUTH POSITION MIGHT LEAD TO LOWER POPS. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH SCT TSTMS AGAIN EXPECTED.

WILL SEE A BRIEF DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR MID WEEK (ALTHOUGH SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS EACH DAY) THEN CHCS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN ATTM AND THIS IS
SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERNING AS IT WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO POTENTIAL VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER A MULTIPLE DAY PERIOD (IN
ADDITION TO A SVR STORM POTENTIAL). WE WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS
MANY AREAS ARE VERY MUCH SATURATED WITH LITTLE TO NO STORAGE CAPACITY
IN PLAYA LAKES FORM LAST ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

15/08

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

OKZ002-072100-
TEXAS OK-
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TEXAS COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

AT 258 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF GUYMON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GUYMON...             TYRONE...             OPTIMA...
  HOOKER...             HARDESTY...           BAKER...
  ADAMS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3658 10096 3663 10159 3685 10161 3701 10120
      3700 10095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 254DEG 14KT 3674 10148

LG