Wind Chill Advisory 5, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
654 AM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST TODAY IS EXTREMELY COMPLEX WHICH IS
EVIDENT BY THE ARRAY OF COLORS ON THE HAZARD MAP THIS MORNING.
WARNINGS RANGE FROM BLIZZARD AND HURRICANE WARNINGS OVER THE NORTH
TO HEAVY SNOW DOWN SOUTH. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON AND A LOW DEEPENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. N-NE WIND GUSTS
OF 60-90MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES ARE EXPECTED WITH A PEAK LATER
THIS EVENING. TAKU WIND INGREDIENTS ARE BEST AROUND 6Z TONIGHT OR
9PM LOCAL AND WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THE LAST EVENT...THUS
THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU. NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL HAS THE HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65-70KT ARE EXPECTED NEAR TAIYA
INLET THROUGH TONIGHT. 50-60KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF ELDRED
ROCK.

RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...BUT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 10-20F...SO EXPECT THE
ATMOSPHERE TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO MOISTEN UP. THIS WILL MAKE THE
EARLY MORNING HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S AND
INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF SNOW. AS PRECIP BECOMES HEAVIER IT WILL
INCITE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS WILL LOW LEVEL CAA OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. GREATEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM KLAWOCK
TO KETCHIKAN TO HYDER NORTH AND ON E-NE FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
LOCATIONS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SHADOWED AND
NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF THAT LINE. SNOW
WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT REACHING THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BARANOF ISLAND AND JUST SOUTH OF KAKE. SEE THE LATEST
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR YOUR AREA FOR MORE DETAILS ON AMOUNTS.

THE NAM AND ECMWF INITIALIZED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
WELL...BUT THE PRESSURE VALUES WERE ABOUT 2MB TOO HIGH ACROSS THE
BOARD. MEANING THAT THE LOW COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER OR MOVING
IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODELS HAVE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON
THE WIND AND OVERALL PATTERN IS HIGH. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TEMPERATURES SINCE A GUST OF WIND CAN AND HAS CHANGED THE
TEMPERATURE FROM 9F IN GUSTAVUS TO 30F IN A MATTER OF A COUPLE
HOURS. THEREFORE EXPECT LARGE TEMPERATURE RANGES ACROSS ALL ZONES
FOR BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
CONTINENTAL ARCTIC AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PANHANDLE TEMPERATURES AS FAR SOUTH TO
SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND TO THE EASTERN PRINCE OF WALE ISLANDS. THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
PUSH RELATIVE WARM AIR OVER THE EXISTING COLD AREAS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RATE FROM SOUTHERN
BARANOF ISLAND EAST TO COAST MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF JUNEAU TO
HYDER AREA. MAIN FOCUS OF DEVELOPING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWEST...EXPECT
THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RATE START DECREASING BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MADE A FEW COSMETIC TOUCHES OVER THE
INHERITED FORECAST FOR FINE TUNES.

STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO THE TIGHT
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CANADA AND THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA...DRIFTING
NORTHWEST. MAINTAINED SOLID GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS. TAKU WIND SCENARIO FOR
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. FREEZING SPRAY
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ARE POSTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
INNER CHANNELS...INCLUDING NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS. BLIZZARD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PANHANDLE ALONG THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY TO WHITE PASS FOR STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND
LOW WIND CHILLS. STAYED WITH THE LATEST WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR
THE EXTEND LONG TERM PERIODS AND EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST
     SATURDAY FOR AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST FRIDAY
     FOR AKZ027.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR
     AKZ024.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ018-025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR
     AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ023.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ020.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ021.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR
     AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ029.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AKZ017-019.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ018.
         BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-032>036-041>043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ052.

&&

FERRIN/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
213 PM AKST THU FEB 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 20 SE HAINES            59.03N 135.04W
02/05/2015  M100 MPH                            AK   MESONET

            ELDRED ROCK OBSERVED PEAK GUST OF 87 KTS

1215 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG THANE                   58.26N 134.31W
02/05/2015                                      AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            12-18 INCH DIAMETER TREE BLOWN OVER KNOCKING DOWN POWER
            LINE

0136 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DOUGLAS                 58.27N 134.39W
02/05/2015  M71.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            PEAK WIND OF 62 KTS MEASURED AT SOUTH DOUGLAS

&&

BPC