Storm Warning 28, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
609 AM AKST FRI FEB 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS ABOUT 968 MB
LOW OVER HAIDA GWAII WITH OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. VERY TIGHT NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND COLD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST HAS BROUGHT UP ARCTIC AIR MASS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO A
LINE JUST NORTH OF HYDABURG EAST TO NEAR KETCHIKAN. SNOW STARTED
OVERNIGHT NEAR KLAWOCK AND BY EARLY MORNING KETCHIKAN REPORTED
SNOW/RAIN MIX. SNOW SPREADS NORTH TO NEAR KUIU ISLAND WITH
VISIBILITY DROP TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH. EARLY MORNING
MERCURY READINGS RANGE FROM 6 TO 9 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
PANHANDLE TO THE MID TEENS NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER
20S IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE. SOUTHERNMOST AREAS REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW OVER HAIDA GWAII WILL
MOVE NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE THIS MORNING AS A 970 MB. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN TO A 978 MB THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THEN
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY. THE PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CANADA WILL FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. REFRESHED
THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM12 FOR ITS GOOD INITIALIZATION
AND CONSISTENCY THROUGH SATURDAY. DUE TO THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND
ADVISORY...SHORT TERM FORECAST COVERS FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME TO MAKE A SMOOTH TRANSITION INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

THE COLD CORE EMBEDDED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BECOME EVEN COLDER SOME LOCATIONS.
MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHERNMOST PANHANDLE WITH SNOW NORTH OF KETCHIKAN TO SOUTH OF
TAKU INLET. RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS EMBEDDED WITH THE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OVER-RUNNING SNOW
EVENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED QPF VALUES...BUT MAINTAINED WARNING LEVEL
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
REFRESHED THE POPS AND QPF FIELDS WITH THE NAM12 AND SREF
GUIDANCE. LIGHT FLURRIES STARTED AT THE FORECAST OFFICE AS OF 530
AM AND EXPECT TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER HEAVIER
SNOWFALL WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF JUNEAU.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TAKU WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR SKAGWAY ALONG THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY TO NEAR WHITE PASS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
PERSIST MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY. NEAR
WHITE PASS...LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP AS LOW AS 45 BELOW
TONIGHT. MAINTAINED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WHITE PASS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL WILL EASE DOWN TO A STORM FORCE BY LATE THIS MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS RELAXING A BIT. A THE HIGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CANADA AND THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WEAKENS AND DRIFT NORTHWEST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
TO RELAX. GALE TO STORM WARNING LEVEL WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS.

.LONG TERM...FOCUS REGENERATED ON SNOW/WIND EVENT FOR LATE SAT
INTO EARLY MON...FOR WHICH A WATCH WOULD CURRENTLY BE RECOMMENDED
IF IT WAS NOT FOR THE CURRENT WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE. THE ARCTIC AIR IS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE
PANHANDLE WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER NOW RESIDING AT THE
SURFACE OVER EASTERN AK AND THE YUKON...TO -55F. AN EXTENSION OF
THE POLAR VORTEX RESIDES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF IN THE FORM OF
A CLOSED LOW ALOFT TONIGHT. AFTER THE CURRENT HIGH WINDS AND SNOWFALL
HAVE DIED DOWN LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY, COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED IN PLACE EVEN AS REINFORCEMENT ARRIVES BY SAT NIGHT
FOR THE UPPER LOW...SETTING THE STAGE FOR FRONTAL/OVERRUNNING
PROCESSES TO BEGIN AS WELL AS DYNAMIC LIFT ALOFT. REINFORCEMENT
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A DIVING SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WESTERN
GULF LEADING TO A NEW CLOSED LOW ALOFT CENTER DEVELOPING BY SUN AM JUST
SOUTH OF THE CURRENT LOW. THIS WILL SET UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WITH HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WITH SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP
TYPE THERE. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE EXTREME SOUTH WILL LIKELY MIX BUT
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL HAVE ALL SNOW. THIS SCENARIO IS
NEARLY IDENTICAL ON THE EC/GFS/NAM MODELS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH
THE GEM BEING THE ONLY OUTLIER WITH WEAKER FORCING ALOFT. THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID- PANHANDLE BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND BY MONDAY MORNING A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT
FROM JUNEAU/GUSTAVUS NORTHWARD IT SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT ALL SNOW.
PREDICTED UPPER-END SNOWFALL RATES ARE 2 TO 4"/6H. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 14" FOR SKAGWAY/HAINES, 8-10 YAKUTAT
AND JUNEAU AND GUSTAVUS, 3" IN SITKA (GOING TO RAIN) AND LESS AT
POINTS EAST AND SOUTH OF SITKA. MOST SNOWFALL SHOULD BE OVER FOR
ALL BUT HAINES/SKAGWAY BY ABOUT 15Z MONDAY. AS FAR AS WINDS
GO...WILL REGENERATE GRADIENT FORCED STORM-FORCE WINDS FOR LYNN
WITH GALES AT VARIOUS OTHER LOCATIONS...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY PALE
IN COMPARISON TO THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE CROSS-
BARRIER/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FOR JUNEAU AND THE EASTERN PASSES IS
NOT PROGGED FOR THIS EVENT. AFTER THIS EVENT THE PATTERN
CHANGES...WE FINALLY WARM UP AND RAIN IS IN THE OFFING BY MID-WEEK
AS THE WESTERN GULF TROUGHING/SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER AFTER THE
ARCTIC AIR RETREATS. MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE STORM PERIOD FOR THIS CYCLE. DUE TO TIME LIMITATIONS WAS NOT
ABLE TO DEVOTE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR WIND TWEAKS BEYOND DAY 3 OR SO.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ026-028-029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AKZ027.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ024.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM AKST
     SATURDAY FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ023.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ020-029.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ021.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR AKZ017-019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR AKZ018.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ031.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ013-022-031-043-051.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-032>036-041-042-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ052.

&&

AHN/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1254 PM AKST FRI FEB 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
02/05/2015                                      AK   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREE DOWN KNOCKED OUT POWER TO THANE, BUT WAS RESTORED.

0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
02/05/2015  M88.00 MPH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            SOUTH DOUGLAS ISLAND WIND PROFILER NEAR DOUGLAS BOAT
            HARBOR PEAK WIND

0730 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
02/05/2015  M81.00 MPH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MOUNT ROBERTS TRAM WINDS GUSTING TO 81 MPH

0730 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
02/05/2015  M140 MPH                            AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            GUST ON SHEEP MOUNTAIN TO 140 MPH

0800 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
02/05/2015  M65.00 MPH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WIND GUST REPORTED AT EAGLECREST

0600 AM     HEAVY SNOW       WRANGELL                56.47N 132.40W
02/06/2015  M6.0 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            SNOWFALL AS OF THIS MORNING AT 6 AM.

0600 AM     HEAVY SNOW       PETERSBURG              56.81N 132.96W
02/06/2015  M7.0 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            SNOW SO FAR THIS MORNING.

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       POINT BAKER             56.35N 133.62W
02/06/2015  M5.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP 24 HOUR DAY REPORT

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       HOLLIS                  55.48N 132.67W
02/06/2015  M7.5 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP REPORT FOR 24 DAY

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       COFFMAN COVE            56.01N 132.83W
02/06/2015  M11.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP REPORT FOR 24 DAY.

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       HYDER                   55.91N 130.02W
02/06/2015  M14.5 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP REPORT FOR 24 DAY.

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       THORNE BAY              55.67N 132.50W
02/06/2015  M14.2 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP 24 DAY REPORT

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       CRAIG                   55.47N 133.13W
02/06/2015  M9.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW AROUND TOWN 8 TO 9 INCHES AS OF 10 AM.

1115 AM     SNOW             12 N KETCHIKAN          55.51N 131.65W
02/06/2015  M5.7 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER AT 12 MILE NORTH OF KETCHIKAN. EVENT TOTAL.

1230 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 20 S HAINES             58.95N 135.44W
02/06/2015  M99.00 MPH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WIND GUSTS TO 99 KT ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY. M/V AURORA
            FOR MARINE FERRY CANCELLED TRIP.

&&

BMB