Storm Warning 7, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 5, 2015, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Jan 5, 2015, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

600 
FZAK51 PAJK 051303
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-060100-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW ABOUT 600 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL
PUSH A WEAKENING FRONT NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING.  

$$

PKZ011-060100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-060100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 11
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT LATE. GUSTS INCREASING
TO 65 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-060100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015 

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-060100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE...WEST OF POINT
ADOLPHUS. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE.
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-060100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT
LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-060100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 70 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. RAIN.
.WED AND THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-060100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-060100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN LATE.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-060100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY LATE.
.TUE...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND THU...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-060100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN LATE.
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-060100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. SNOW LATE.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Jan 4, 5:12 PM AKST, 10 hours 48 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
512 PM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHEN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN IN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS THE GENERAL
TREND IS DOWNWARD WITH PEAK GUSTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS AT ALL OF
THE AVAILABLE OBS SITES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 18Z NAM WHICH ON
BUFKIT SHOWS A DISAPPEARING CRITICAL LEVEL AT ABOUT 700 MB THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH CROSS-BARRIER FLOW MAINTAINS 40+ KT THROUGH
ABOUT 03-04Z. THIS ALSO AGREES WITH THE 18Z NAM MTNWV SIMULATION
TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING
EXPIRE AT 300 AKST AND THEN GO WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE HEADLINES
FOR THE FORECAST ISSUANCE. OUTSIDE OF LYNN CANAL THE TREND HAS
ALSO BEEN DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT ON WINDS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
GRIDDED FORECAST. WE HAVE N LYNN CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH STORM-
FORCE WINDS. CURRENTLY GUSTS 65-75 KT CONTINUE AT ELDRED ROCK.
GALES IN SOUTHERN LYNN, STEPHENS AND FREDERICK (DUE TO PASS WINDS
IN THE LATTER) CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WITH OF COURSE GALE FOR
TOMORROW IN NORTHERN LYNN. WINDS AT LINCOLN ROCK AND AT FIVE
FINGERS HAVE BEEN MUCH WEAKER THAN FORECAST BUT THE THINKING IS
THAT OUTFLOW WINDS IN SIDE CHANNELS DO WARRANT THE HEADLINES SO
DID NOT CHANGE THEM. INHERITED AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY HAZARD
(INCLUDING HEAVY IN LYNN) LOOK OK CURRENTLY PER THE FREEZING SPRAY
NOMOGRAM AND THESE CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW IN STEPHENS, GLACIER BAY
AND INTO FREDERICK. ON TO OTHER ISSUES...THE LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTHERN REACHES HAS BEEN MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME HANGING ON
CURRENTLY AT KETCHIKAN, CRAIG AND HYDER...THIS SHOULD END SHORTLY AS
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD. UPPER CLOUD ONLY
REACHED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY. ON THE
MODELS...LATE TOMORROW THE NEW LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AGAIN DEVELOPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE WITH THE ONSET OF A WARMING TREND FOR THOSE AREAS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THIS IS A TOUGH ONE AS MORE AREAS WILL
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING (EG YAKUTAT)...THUS COOLING RAPIDLY. KNOCKED A FEW
DEGREES OFF GUIDANCE FOR THOSE AREAS WE FELT THIS WOULD OCCUR. DRY
AIR SHOULD PREVENT FOG FORMATION FOR EVEN THESE AREAS EXCEPT
PERHAPS THE KETCHIKAN VICINITY AND THIS WOULD REQUIRE RAPID
CLEARING.

INHERITED PACKAGED LOOKED MOSTLY GOOD THROUGH ABOUT 09Z ON
PRESSURE/WIND GRIDS BUT THEN HAD TO MODIFY THE OFFSHORE FIELDS FOR
THE NEW LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHICH TIGHTENS UP THE GULF GRADIENT
A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WENT WITH AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FOR THE NEW PRESSURE USING NAM/EC/GEM/GFS FOR PRESSURE
ON OUTSIDE WATERS. UPPED THE WINDS OUTSIDE WHERE THE GRADIENT
INCREASED (SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS MOSTLY). TWEAKED SOME WIND
FIELDS OVER CROSS SOUND AND IN STEPHENS...OTHERWISE INHERITED.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS OVER NWRN CANADA...WHILE LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES SSE OF THE
ALEUTIANS MON AND TUE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS...WITH GALES WIDESPREAD OVER THE INSIDE WATERS.
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND THEN WEAKEN AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS FRI AND SAT. COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND STRONG WINDS WILL FAVOR FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE NRN INSIDE
CHANNELS. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG MARINE WINDS...GUSTS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT /40-50 MPH/ FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS
SKAGWAY...HAINES...AND JUNEAU.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NWD INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLE ON TUE...AND THEN APPROACH THE CNTRL CWA BY THU.
SNOW MAY INITIALLY OCCUR FOR SRN AREAS AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA...BUT WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN AS WARM AIR SPREADS NWD
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE HYDER...WHERE COLDER
CONTINENTAL AIR WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MON NIGHT
THROUGH THU. OUTFLOW WINDS OVER THE NRN HALF OF SERN AK WILL AID
IN LOCKING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING THROUGH THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING WILL SPREAD
ABOVE THE COLDER SURFACE AIRMASS. THE DEPTH OF THE FREEZING
AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE SHALLOW...WHICH COMPLICATES THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE
DRY AIR EMANATING FROM THE COAST RANGE...WHICH WILL LIMIT COLUMN
SATURATION. IN ADDITION...ASCENT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
MODEST. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO MORE
THAN SNOW.

UPDATED PRESSURE GRIDS WITH AN ECMWF/GEM/OFFICIAL BLEND FROM 12Z
TUE THROUGH 00Z THU...THEN TRANSITIONED TO 12Z WPC. USED A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND WERE NECESSARY FOR UPDATES TO POP/QPF GRIDS. FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
GENERALLY LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ013-022-031-035.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-032>034-036-041>043.

&&

WESLEY/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every storm warning in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.