Gale Warning 43, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
608 AM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE NEAR TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK.
WINDY OUTFLOW NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LOCALLY QUITE WINDY THIS MORNING AND
THAT IS HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH DUE TO ALL
THE MIXING OCCURRING. STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE LYNN CANAL
AREA AND NEAR CROSS SOUND AND CAPE DECISION.

CLOUDS COVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE PANHANDLE SOUTH OF FREDERICK
SOUND. A FEW FLURRIES BEING REPORTED FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN
STATIONS LIKE ANNETTE THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
ESPECIALLY LYNN CANAL. ELDRED ROCK HAS BEEN GUSTING BETWEEN 70 TO
80 KT ALL NIGHT. EXTENDED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAIN WAVE
TAKU EVENT FOR JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS ISLAND AREA. WINDS PICKED BACK
UP AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL OBSERVATION SITES RANGING
BETWEEN 60 AND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS. JUNEAU MARINE LINES SENSOR WAS
REPORTING A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 100 MPH. WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN
EMPHASIS WAS TO DAY TIME TEMPERATURES, WITH SOME CONCERN THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT LIKE WE ARE FORECASTING. WILL
CONFER WITH NEXT SHIFT.

.LONG TERM...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS OVER NWRN CANADA...WHILE LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES SSE OF THE
ALEUTIANS MON AND TUE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS...WITH GALES WIDESPREAD OVER THE INSIDE WATERS.
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND THEN WEAKEN AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS FRI AND SAT. COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND STRONG WINDS WILL FAVOR FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE NRN INSIDE
CHANNELS. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG MARINE WINDS...GUSTS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT /40-50 MPH/ FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS
SKAGWAY...HAINES...AND JUNEAU.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NWD INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLE ON TUE...AND THEN APPROACH THE CNTRL CWA BY THU.
SNOW MAY INITIALLY OCCUR FOR SRN AREAS AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA...BUT WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN AS WARM AIR SPREADS NWD
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE HYDER...WHERE COLDER
CONTINENTAL AIR WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MON NIGHT
THROUGH THU. OUTFLOW WINDS OVER THE NRN HALF OF SERN AK WILL AID
IN LOCKING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING THROUGH THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING WILL SPREAD
ABOVE THE COLDER SURFACE AIRMASS. THE DEPTH OF THE FREEZING
AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE SHALLOW...WHICH COMPLICATES THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE
DRY AIR EMANATING FROM THE COAST RANGE...WHICH WILL LIMIT COLUMN
SATURATION. IN ADDITION...ASCENT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
MODEST. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO MORE
THAN SNOW.

UPDATED PRESSURE GRIDS WITH AN ECMWF/GEM/OFFICIAL BLEND FROM 12Z
TUE THROUGH 00Z THU...THEN TRANSITIONED TO 12Z WPC. USED A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND WERE NECESSARY FOR UPDATES TO POP/QPF GRIDS. FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
GENERALLY LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ022-027.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ029.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-031.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ013-021-022-031-034>036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-032-033-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

BEZENEK/GARNER

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