Storm Warning 57, NWS Juneau, AK

688 
FZAK52 PAJK 261826 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
926 AM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-270115-
926 AM AKST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA BY FRIDAY. A GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE EASTERN GULF LATE ON THURSDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-270115-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
926 AM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-270115-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
926 AM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO 45
KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN LATE. 
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-270115-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
926 AM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO
16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-270115-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
926 AM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO
21 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-270115-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
926 AM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 23 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 50 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT
LATE. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

074 
FZAK52 PAJK 270019
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-271400-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA BY FRIDAY. A GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-271400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015 

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 
50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-271400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015 

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT.
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT LATE.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 
50 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-271400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING
TO 18 FT LATE.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-271400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-271400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING E 45 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
315 PM AKST WED NOV 25 2015

.SHORT RANGE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTED THE
FORMATION OF FOG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TODAY.  STILL SHOULD
SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH AM NOT
EXPECTING DENSE FOG CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.  WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT EXCEPT FOR CROSS SOUND WHERE GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KT.

WEST OF 140 WEST A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS LEADING SHORT
WAVES WITH SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
GENERALLY EXPECT THE RAINS WEST OF YAKUTAT IN THE ZONE FORECASTS.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES ONSHORE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND FEATURE IS EXPECTED INTO THE CAPE SUCKLING TO
YAKUTAT REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS WEST OF YAKUTAT
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES ON THURSDAY.

USED A GFS22/ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS AND QPF NUMBERS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG RANGE...BLOCKY UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER SRN BC INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND. OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY FRI. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON WHAT THE FRONT DOES AFTER THIS...AND MAIN ISSUE IS
WHETHER ANY WAVES FORM ON THE FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY
THINK THE WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE AND WILL GENERALLY
HOLD THE FRONT IN PLACE ALONG THE NRN OUTER COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. AFTER THAT...MODELS REALLY DIVERGE ON WHERE FRONT WILL GO.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.
ENDED UP USING A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND NAM FOR THU NIGHT AND
FRI...THEN WENT WITH NAM/EC FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH MOSTLY LATEST
WPC FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT ONWARD.

LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THU NIGHT AS
FRONT BEGINS MIGRATING E. MOST OF IT SHOULD STILL BE ALONG THE NE
GULF COAST THU NIGHT...BUT SOME RAIN COULD REACH THE NW INNER
CHANNELS BY LATE THU NIGHT. THE EWD DRIFT OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE NRN INNER CHANNELS AND INTO THE
CENTRAL COAST DURING FRI. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY OVER THE NE GULF
COAST LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY THE
NRN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND FROM THE CENTRAL COAST NWWD FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM A PASI-PAJN
LINE NWWD DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER 12 HOURS
IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES...WITH RIVER/STREAM RISES REMAINING
BELOW BANKFULL LEVELS. HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS IF ANY AREA REMAINS IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN RATES FOR A LONGER
DURATION.

FOR SUN ONWARD...STILL STAYING WITH WET AND MILD FORECAST BUT SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THE PRECIP COULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME DURING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LIMITED POPS TO LIKELY ON HIGH END FOR MON ONWARD FOR
THIS REASON.

&&

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ051-052-310.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-022-036-041>043.

&&

BMB/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU