Gale Warning 412, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
315 PM AKST WED NOV 25 2015

.SHORT RANGE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTED THE
FORMATION OF FOG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TODAY.  STILL SHOULD
SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH AM NOT
EXPECTING DENSE FOG CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.  WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT EXCEPT FOR CROSS SOUND WHERE GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KT.

WEST OF 140 WEST A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS LEADING SHORT
WAVES WITH SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
GENERALLY EXPECT THE RAINS WEST OF YAKUTAT IN THE ZONE FORECASTS.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES ONSHORE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND FEATURE IS EXPECTED INTO THE CAPE SUCKLING TO
YAKUTAT REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS WEST OF YAKUTAT
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES ON THURSDAY.

USED A GFS22/ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS AND QPF NUMBERS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG RANGE...BLOCKY UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER SRN BC INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND. OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY FRI. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON WHAT THE FRONT DOES AFTER THIS...AND MAIN ISSUE IS
WHETHER ANY WAVES FORM ON THE FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY
THINK THE WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE AND WILL GENERALLY
HOLD THE FRONT IN PLACE ALONG THE NRN OUTER COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. AFTER THAT...MODELS REALLY DIVERGE ON WHERE FRONT WILL GO.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.
ENDED UP USING A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND NAM FOR THU NIGHT AND
FRI...THEN WENT WITH NAM/EC FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH MOSTLY LATEST
WPC FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT ONWARD.

LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THU NIGHT AS
FRONT BEGINS MIGRATING E. MOST OF IT SHOULD STILL BE ALONG THE NE
GULF COAST THU NIGHT...BUT SOME RAIN COULD REACH THE NW INNER
CHANNELS BY LATE THU NIGHT. THE EWD DRIFT OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE NRN INNER CHANNELS AND INTO THE
CENTRAL COAST DURING FRI. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY OVER THE NE GULF
COAST LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY THE
NRN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND FROM THE CENTRAL COAST NWWD FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM A PASI-PAJN
LINE NWWD DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER 12 HOURS
IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES...WITH RIVER/STREAM RISES REMAINING
BELOW BANKFULL LEVELS. HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS IF ANY AREA REMAINS IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN RATES FOR A LONGER
DURATION.

FOR SUN ONWARD...STILL STAYING WITH WET AND MILD FORECAST BUT SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THE PRECIP COULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME DURING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LIMITED POPS TO LIKELY ON HIGH END FOR MON ONWARD FOR
THIS REASON.

&&

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ051-052-310.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-022-036-041>043.

&&

BMB/RWT

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