Alert archive / Alaska / Storm Warnings in 2015

Storm Warning 48, NWS Juneau, AK

October 11, 2015

NWS Juneau, AK issued this storm warning at Oct 11, 2015, 4:00 PM AKDT. It was in force for 4 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 11, 2015, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)
Expired
Oct 11, 2015, 8:19 PM AKDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
NWS Juneau, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

080 
FZAK51 PAJK 112237
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-121400-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CURVE NW TOWARD
CAPE SUCKLING WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-121400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-121400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 35 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING
TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-121400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-121400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT...THEN
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-121400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-121400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-121400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS
LATE.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-121400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...GUSTS AROUND 60 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT.
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
10 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-121400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-121400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-121400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...STORM WARNING EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
6 FT. SHOWERS LATE. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$
2 follow-up statements
434 
FZAK51 PAJK 112305 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-121400-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CURVE NW TOWARD
CAPE SUCKLING WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-121400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-121400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING
TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-121400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-121400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT...THEN
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-121400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-121400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-121400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS
LATE.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-121400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...GUSTS AROUND 60 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT.
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
10 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-121400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-121400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-121400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...STORM WARNING EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
6 FT. SHOWERS LATE. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$
829 
FZAK51 PAJK 120419 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
819 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-121530-
819 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CURVE NW TOWARD
CAPE SUCKLING WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-121530-
GLACIER BAY-
819 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ012-121530-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
819 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ013-121530-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
819 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ021-121530-
ICY STRAIT-
819 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ022-121530-
CROSS SOUND-
819 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS
13 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-121530-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
819 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S OF DOUGLAS ISLAND...E WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING
TO 40 KT LATE. ELSEWHERE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S OF DOUGLAS
ISLAND...SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT LATE. SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-121530-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
819 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ033-121530-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
819 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT LATE. SEAS 8
FT...EXCEPT 15 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
10 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ034-121530-
FREDERICK SOUND-
819 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ035-121530-
SUMNER STRAIT-
819 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 9
FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-121530-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
819 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
6 FT. SHOWERS LATE. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 11, 3:30 PM AKDT, 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 11, 3:30 PM AKDT, 30 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
330 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...OUR STORM WITH NO ASSOCIATED NAME IS HERE. AND BY
ALL ACCOUNTS IT IS MORE IMPACTFUL THAN FRIDAY'S STORM.

HIGH WIND GUSTS FROM 60 TO 75 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN HYDABURG
AND CAPE DECISION LIGHTHOUSE. WINDS BEGAN GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND HAVE SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
THE TENAKEE/JUNEAU AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED 925 MB WINDS FROM
50 TO 70 KT COMBINED WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE RESULTED
IN GENERALLY A GOOD FORECAST THROUGH TODAY. BASED OFF OF TRENDS
AND CONTINUED PERSISTENT 925 MB WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS INTO LATER THIS EVENING FOR
THE SOUTH...AND DEEPER OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH. YAKUTAT
MEANWHILE WILL START FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST GUSTS TO 40 MPH LIKELY. THE
HIGH WIND WARNING IS ON TRACK TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM TONIGHT FOR
WESTERN PRINCE OF WALES.

HEAVY RAIN BANDS HAVE ALSO MOVED INTO THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AREAS
WITH RATES BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A THIRD INCH PER HOUR. THESE WILL
SPREAD NORTH TODAY...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RISES IN STREAMS
TONIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. AS THE STORM PULLS TO THE
NORTHWEST...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. IN FACT...SOME
SHOWERS WITHIN THE INTERACTION ZONE BETWEEN THE DRY SLOT AND THE
INITIAL FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED INTO THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING
BEING REPORTED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. A WAVE PROGGED TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TOMORROW
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

USED 00Z ECMWF FOR MAIN CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK. HIGH RES
MODELS SEEM TO SLOW THINGS DOWN UNNECESSARILY...AND PREFER THE
ECMWF FOR ITS CONSISTENCY AND TRACK RECORD FOR THESE STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
GULF COMBINED WITH A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE AN
ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE GULF AND OUTER COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COMBINED
WITH A LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL TURN WINDS MORE
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AND INTO A PORTION OF THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AT THIS POINT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

USED 12Z ECMWF FOR MINOR UPDATES THROUGH DAY 4 THEN LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE FOR DAY 5 ONWARD. MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
DECREASING POPS EVEN MORE FOR MID WEEK. OTHERWISE...LITTLE
DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DECREASES
BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SO
FAR TODAY AT THE KETCHIKAN...SITKA...AND JUNEAU AIRPORTS. WIND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IN SITKA AND JUNEAU WITH A
SHIFT FROM ESE TO SSW AT AROUND 2000 FEET THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS...IMPROVED CEILINGS...AND
DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ021-023-026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ024.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ020.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-042-043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-021-031>035-041-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-053.

&&

JWA/TPS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 11, 11:34 AM AKDT, 4 hours 26 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1134 AM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

AKZ018>029-120800-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...
ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...JUNEAU...
PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA...HYDER
1134 AM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

...MORE RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...

A RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
TODAY IS BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE ALREADY SATURATED PANHANDLE OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON SUNDAY. TOTAL ESTIMATED RAINFALL THROUGH
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.

AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RECOVERING FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE WATERWAYS TO
RISE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THIS COMBINED WITH SATURATED
GROUNDS WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 11, 4:00 PM AKDTGale WarningAJK48 hr
Oct 11, 4:00 PM AKDTGale WarningAJK24 hr
Oct 11, 4:00 PM AKDTGale WarningAJK24 hr
Oct 11, 8:03 PM AKDTGale WarningAJK16 hr
Oct 11, 8:19 PM AKDTGale WarningAJK8 hr
Oct 11, 8:19 PM AKDTStorm WarningAJK8 hr
Oct 12, 4:00 AM AKDTGale WarningAJK8 hr
Oct 12, 4:00 AM AKDTGale WarningAJK8 hr
Oct 12, 4:00 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK12 hr
Oct 12, 12:19 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK4 hr
Oct 12, 12:25 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK4 hr

Nearby

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every storm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.