Gale Warning 321, NWS Juneau, AK

590 
FZAK52 PAJK 122025 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1225 PM AKDT MON OCT 12 2015

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-130000-
1225 PM AKDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW OFF THE COAST OF YAKUTAT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND
WEST OF ICY BAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND AND SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF INTO TUESDAY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-130000-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1225 PM AKDT MON OCT 12 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO
16 FT. S SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ042-130000-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1225 PM AKDT MON OCT 12 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO
16 FT. S SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS LATE.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ043-130000-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1225 PM AKDT MON OCT 12 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. S SWELL. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ051-130000-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1225 PM AKDT MON OCT 12 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
14 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ052-130000-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1225 PM AKDT MON OCT 12 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. S
SWELL. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
330 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...OUR STORM WITH NO ASSOCIATED NAME IS HERE. AND BY
ALL ACCOUNTS IT IS MORE IMPACTFUL THAN FRIDAY'S STORM.

HIGH WIND GUSTS FROM 60 TO 75 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN HYDABURG
AND CAPE DECISION LIGHTHOUSE. WINDS BEGAN GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND HAVE SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
THE TENAKEE/JUNEAU AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED 925 MB WINDS FROM
50 TO 70 KT COMBINED WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE RESULTED
IN GENERALLY A GOOD FORECAST THROUGH TODAY. BASED OFF OF TRENDS
AND CONTINUED PERSISTENT 925 MB WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS INTO LATER THIS EVENING FOR
THE SOUTH...AND DEEPER OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH. YAKUTAT
MEANWHILE WILL START FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST GUSTS TO 40 MPH LIKELY. THE
HIGH WIND WARNING IS ON TRACK TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM TONIGHT FOR
WESTERN PRINCE OF WALES.

HEAVY RAIN BANDS HAVE ALSO MOVED INTO THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AREAS
WITH RATES BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A THIRD INCH PER HOUR. THESE WILL
SPREAD NORTH TODAY...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RISES IN STREAMS
TONIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. AS THE STORM PULLS TO THE
NORTHWEST...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. IN FACT...SOME
SHOWERS WITHIN THE INTERACTION ZONE BETWEEN THE DRY SLOT AND THE
INITIAL FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED INTO THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING
BEING REPORTED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. A WAVE PROGGED TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TOMORROW
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

USED 00Z ECMWF FOR MAIN CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK. HIGH RES
MODELS SEEM TO SLOW THINGS DOWN UNNECESSARILY...AND PREFER THE
ECMWF FOR ITS CONSISTENCY AND TRACK RECORD FOR THESE STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
GULF COMBINED WITH A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE AN
ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE GULF AND OUTER COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COMBINED
WITH A LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL TURN WINDS MORE
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AND INTO A PORTION OF THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AT THIS POINT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

USED 12Z ECMWF FOR MINOR UPDATES THROUGH DAY 4 THEN LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE FOR DAY 5 ONWARD. MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
DECREASING POPS EVEN MORE FOR MID WEEK. OTHERWISE...LITTLE
DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DECREASES
BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SO
FAR TODAY AT THE KETCHIKAN...SITKA...AND JUNEAU AIRPORTS. WIND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING IN SITKA AND JUNEAU WITH A
SHIFT FROM ESE TO SSW AT AROUND 2000 FEET THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS...IMPROVED CEILINGS...AND
DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ021-023-026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ024.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ020.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-042-043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-021-031>035-041-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-053.

&&

JWA/TPS

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