Storm Warning 3, NWS Juneau, AK

333 
FZAK52 PAJK 020830 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1130 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-030230-
1130 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE ONSHORE N OF
SITKA THU EVENING...THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. COLD NORTHERLY
GALES WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS
LATER TONIGHT AND FRI AS THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES S ACROSS THE
AREA. 

$$

PKZ041-030230-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1130 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS
25 FT SUBSIDING TO 22 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING 
TO 9 FT LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-030230-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1130 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT LATE. SEAS 26
FT SUBSIDING TO 22 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING 
TO 9 FT LATE. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-030230-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1130 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
21 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST OUT OF CROSS SOUND. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF
CROSS SOUND. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-030230-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1130 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. HIGHER
GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-030230-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1130 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT...HIGHEST WELL
OFFSHORE. S SWELL.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

899 
FZAK52 PAJK 021229
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-030100-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRI MORNING WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. COLD NORTHERLY GALES WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT PASSES S ACROSS THE AREA. 

$$

PKZ041-030100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
24 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. W SWELL. 
.SAT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-030100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-030100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-030100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-030100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING
TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
339 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...STRONG LOW OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE ONSHORE
N OF SITKA THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT CROSSES THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO THE FAR
NRN PANHANDLE BY 09Z...THEN REACH THE JUNEAU AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRI. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE FRI AFTERNOON.
MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THESE FEATURES AND CLOSE TO CURRENT
FORECAST SO LEFT PRESSURE FIELD AS IS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING THE DIMINISHING TREND OF
PRECIP AND WINDS...AND TEMPS. RIGHT NOW MOST OF THE AREA IS
GETTING SOME FORM OF PRECIP...WITH THE CHILKAT VALLEY AND HYDER
AREAS GETTING SNOW. DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
THE CHILKAT VALLEY AND WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR WHITE PASS ABOVE
SKAGWAY THRU MIDNIGHT. DID TAKE OUT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS IT
APPEARS THAT THE WARM LAYER ALOFT HAS BEEN DYNAMICALLY COOLED TO
FREEZING AT LEAST. ALSO...HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORT OF FREEZING
RAIN IN THE HAINES AREA SINCE EARLY TODAY...JUST RAIN AND SNOW.
WILL PUT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF UP TO 15 INCHES FOR THE CHILKAT
VALLEY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE BORDER...AND UP TO 8 INCHES
FOR WHITE PASS. THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND
FRI AS LOW MOVES PAST AND ARCTIC FRONT ALSO PUSHES THRU. SHOULD BE
DRY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRI. RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE SRN AREA SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY FRI AS LOW
FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE MOST SNOW OVER THE S WILL BE
NEAR HYDER...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT AND 2 INCHES FRI. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMS OVER THE S.

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRONGEST ON THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE
E-CENTRAL GULF...WITH 45-50 KT WLY WINDS IN THE GULF OFFSHORE
WATERS. THINK THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE SRN COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS EVENING. GALES GOING ON AROUND THE OTHER SIDES OF THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS LOW WEAKENS AND HEADS INLAND.
HOWEVER...AS ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SWD...RAPIDLY INCREASING NLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN INNER CHANNELS LATER TONIGHT AS MUCH
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GALES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FAR NRN LYNN CANAL AREA BY AROUND 09Z...REACHING THE SRN AREA BY
15Z FRI. OUTFLOW INTO THE GULF WILL INCREASE AS WELL LATE TONIGHT
AND FRI..WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE OUTFLOW AREAS FRI. WILL HAVE
STRONG WINDS FOR THE NRN INNER CHANNELS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI...AND
FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS FRI AS INCREASING NELY MTN WAVE
INDUCED WINDS DEVELOP OFF THE JUNEAU ICEFIELD INTO THAT AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL HAVE NON-DIURNAL TREND IN MOST OF THE ZONES
FOR FRI AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AFTER ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THRU. WILL NOT EVEN MENTION THE HIGH TEMP FOR MOST PLACES...JUST
INDICATING WHAT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MANY AREAS OVER THE N WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS
DURING THE DAY FRI...WITH CENTRAL AREA FALLING INTO THE 20S. THE
FAR SRN AREA WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT DROP DURING THE DAY AS ARCTIC
FRONT WILL NOT GET THERE THRU LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL HELP LOWER
TEMPS A BIT.

.LONG TERM...AT 03Z ON SATURDAY THE CURRENT LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
AND MOVED EAST OF THE PANHANDLE. IT APPEARLS LIKELY TO LEAVE AN
ENTRENCHED ARCTIC AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE AND THIS FRONT WILL PLAY A
ROLE THROUGH ALL OR NEARLY ALL OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD...MODELS DO NOT HAVE THE COLD AIR TOTALLY RETREAT UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CONTINUED GALES IN LYNN CANAL...SCAS AND GALES
IN OTHER FAVORABLY-ORIENTED CHANNELS...TOMORROW NIGHT. ALSO STRONG
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SKAGWAY...HAINES AND
PORTIONS OF 25...DOWNTOWN AND DOUGLAS TO BE SPECIFIC. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE TAKU- FAVORED REGION WILL BEGIN LIKELY BEFORE 6Z SATURDAY
...CROSS-BARRIER FLOW GETS TO 45-50 KTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
IS STILL 35 KTS THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. THE SKAGWAY- JUNEAU GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MONDAY AND MAXIMIZES ON THE
NAM ON SUNDAY AT 15Z. MEANWHILE A NEW LOW IS DUE IN LATE
SATURDAY. MUCH WEAKER THAN CURRENT LOW...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF PORTION AND ITS MAJOR IMPACT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS
THUS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE GFS/NAM/EC ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TRACK WHILE THE GEM IS THE OUTLIER WITH THE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A SECOND LOW IS DUE IN HERE BY TUESDAY AND
THATS WHEN THE MODELS SAY WARM ADVECTION WILL FINALLY MAKE
PROGRESS OVER THE PANHANDLE BUT NOT WITHOUT AN OVERRUNNING
SCENARIO. THE THIRD LOW IS DUE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY WEDNESDAY
WITH VARYING MODEL POSITIONS AND FORCING BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF
STRONG SE FLOW IS HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...APPEARS RELATIVELY WARM
ON THE MODELS AT THIS POINT. THE GFS IS LOOKING MORE ORGANIZED
WITH STRONGER UPPER FORCING OVER THE GULF FOR THIS LOW WHILE THE
EC KEEPS MOST OF THE UPPER FORCING TO THE WEST OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
AS TIME ALLOWED JUST TOOK A COMPROMISE APPROACH WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
UPDATED CURRENT GRIDS WITH MOSTLY TWEAKS TO WINDS UNTIL THE LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY LOW WHICH REQUIRED UPDATED PRESSURE AND WIND
FIELDS AS THE TRACK WAS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
APPARENTLY. WENT WITH PRIMARILY THE NAM/EC/ECMWF FOR THE MID-
RANGE ADJUSTMENTS AND WPC FOR THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ018-019.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041-042.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-031-033>036-043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-032-052.

&&

RWT/WESLEY

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