Storm Warning 2, NWS Juneau, AK

557 
FZAK67 PAJK 021225
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-030100-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEAKENING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRI MORNING WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. COLD NORTHERLY GALES WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT PASSES S ACROSS THE AREA. 

$$

PKZ310-030100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OVER SOUTHERN HALF. W SWELL IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
339 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...STRONG LOW OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE ONSHORE
N OF SITKA THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT CROSSES THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO THE FAR
NRN PANHANDLE BY 09Z...THEN REACH THE JUNEAU AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRI. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE FRI AFTERNOON.
MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THESE FEATURES AND CLOSE TO CURRENT
FORECAST SO LEFT PRESSURE FIELD AS IS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING THE DIMINISHING TREND OF
PRECIP AND WINDS...AND TEMPS. RIGHT NOW MOST OF THE AREA IS
GETTING SOME FORM OF PRECIP...WITH THE CHILKAT VALLEY AND HYDER
AREAS GETTING SNOW. DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
THE CHILKAT VALLEY AND WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR WHITE PASS ABOVE
SKAGWAY THRU MIDNIGHT. DID TAKE OUT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS IT
APPEARS THAT THE WARM LAYER ALOFT HAS BEEN DYNAMICALLY COOLED TO
FREEZING AT LEAST. ALSO...HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORT OF FREEZING
RAIN IN THE HAINES AREA SINCE EARLY TODAY...JUST RAIN AND SNOW.
WILL PUT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF UP TO 15 INCHES FOR THE CHILKAT
VALLEY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE BORDER...AND UP TO 8 INCHES
FOR WHITE PASS. THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND
FRI AS LOW MOVES PAST AND ARCTIC FRONT ALSO PUSHES THRU. SHOULD BE
DRY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRI. RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE SRN AREA SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY FRI AS LOW
FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE MOST SNOW OVER THE S WILL BE
NEAR HYDER...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT AND 2 INCHES FRI. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMS OVER THE S.

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRONGEST ON THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE
E-CENTRAL GULF...WITH 45-50 KT WLY WINDS IN THE GULF OFFSHORE
WATERS. THINK THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE SRN COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS EVENING. GALES GOING ON AROUND THE OTHER SIDES OF THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS LOW WEAKENS AND HEADS INLAND.
HOWEVER...AS ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SWD...RAPIDLY INCREASING NLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN INNER CHANNELS LATER TONIGHT AS MUCH
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GALES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FAR NRN LYNN CANAL AREA BY AROUND 09Z...REACHING THE SRN AREA BY
15Z FRI. OUTFLOW INTO THE GULF WILL INCREASE AS WELL LATE TONIGHT
AND FRI..WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE OUTFLOW AREAS FRI. WILL HAVE
STRONG WINDS FOR THE NRN INNER CHANNELS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI...AND
FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS FRI AS INCREASING NELY MTN WAVE
INDUCED WINDS DEVELOP OFF THE JUNEAU ICEFIELD INTO THAT AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL HAVE NON-DIURNAL TREND IN MOST OF THE ZONES
FOR FRI AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AFTER ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THRU. WILL NOT EVEN MENTION THE HIGH TEMP FOR MOST PLACES...JUST
INDICATING WHAT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MANY AREAS OVER THE N WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS
DURING THE DAY FRI...WITH CENTRAL AREA FALLING INTO THE 20S. THE
FAR SRN AREA WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT DROP DURING THE DAY AS ARCTIC
FRONT WILL NOT GET THERE THRU LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL HELP LOWER
TEMPS A BIT.

.LONG TERM...AT 03Z ON SATURDAY THE CURRENT LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
AND MOVED EAST OF THE PANHANDLE. IT APPEARLS LIKELY TO LEAVE AN
ENTRENCHED ARCTIC AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE AND THIS FRONT WILL PLAY A
ROLE THROUGH ALL OR NEARLY ALL OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD...MODELS DO NOT HAVE THE COLD AIR TOTALLY RETREAT UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CONTINUED GALES IN LYNN CANAL...SCAS AND GALES
IN OTHER FAVORABLY-ORIENTED CHANNELS...TOMORROW NIGHT. ALSO STRONG
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SKAGWAY...HAINES AND
PORTIONS OF 25...DOWNTOWN AND DOUGLAS TO BE SPECIFIC. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE TAKU- FAVORED REGION WILL BEGIN LIKELY BEFORE 6Z SATURDAY
...CROSS-BARRIER FLOW GETS TO 45-50 KTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
IS STILL 35 KTS THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. THE SKAGWAY- JUNEAU GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MONDAY AND MAXIMIZES ON THE
NAM ON SUNDAY AT 15Z. MEANWHILE A NEW LOW IS DUE IN LATE
SATURDAY. MUCH WEAKER THAN CURRENT LOW...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF PORTION AND ITS MAJOR IMPACT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS
THUS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE GFS/NAM/EC ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TRACK WHILE THE GEM IS THE OUTLIER WITH THE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A SECOND LOW IS DUE IN HERE BY TUESDAY AND
THATS WHEN THE MODELS SAY WARM ADVECTION WILL FINALLY MAKE
PROGRESS OVER THE PANHANDLE BUT NOT WITHOUT AN OVERRUNNING
SCENARIO. THE THIRD LOW IS DUE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY WEDNESDAY
WITH VARYING MODEL POSITIONS AND FORCING BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF
STRONG SE FLOW IS HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...APPEARS RELATIVELY WARM
ON THE MODELS AT THIS POINT. THE GFS IS LOOKING MORE ORGANIZED
WITH STRONGER UPPER FORCING OVER THE GULF FOR THIS LOW WHILE THE
EC KEEPS MOST OF THE UPPER FORCING TO THE WEST OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
AS TIME ALLOWED JUST TOOK A COMPROMISE APPROACH WITH WPC GUIDANCE.
UPDATED CURRENT GRIDS WITH MOSTLY TWEAKS TO WINDS UNTIL THE LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY LOW WHICH REQUIRED UPDATED PRESSURE AND WIND
FIELDS AS THE TRACK WAS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
APPARENTLY. WENT WITH PRIMARILY THE NAM/EC/ECMWF FOR THE MID-
RANGE ADJUSTMENTS AND WPC FOR THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ018-019.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041-042.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-031-033>036-043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-032-052.

&&

RWT/WESLEY

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